OK State Sen: Dem. elected in 70% Romney seat

[Maxwell]

Tulsa County has been slowly but surely trending back to the Democrats, and this is a nice sign of their efforts. That being said, Special elections are weird beasts, and I'm not sure Senator Dossett will continue in this seat.

[Maxwell]

Hmmm... backlash against education cuts in the suburbs.  Could be nothing, but kind of echoes JBE's suburban margins running on similar issues.

Oh this too. I see posts about education cuts from deeply conservative Oklahomans. There is serious backlash over the way Fallin and the Republicans have governed this state. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that a Democrat will be Governor after 2018 elections. Joe Dorman is in perfect position for a comeback.

[Maxwell]

I was actually surprised this was a suburban seat, not one of the districts out east.

A few years ago, I remember Democrats picked up the McCurtain County House district (24% Obama) in a special election, and have actually held it since then. Hopefully that holds here, too, as Dossett seems like he could have a bright future.

McCurtain County is also 80% registered Democrat, so I can see that happening a little more than suburban Tulsa.

Another interesting special election was a House seat in pretty Republican suburbs of Oklahoma City where Cyndi Munson, an Asian female democrat, won a seat by a decent margin. She done a decent job in the election before, so I feel like she could win re-election. It certainly seems like the deck chairs in Oklahoma are changing.

[Maxwell]

Btw, this is Randy Brogdon's old district - who is basically the face of the Oklahoma Tea Party. He did surprisingly well against Mary Fallin in a primary back in 2010, but epically flopped in a Senate run against two state juggernauts (Congressman James Lankford and House Speaker T.W. Shannon). Thanks for bringing this to light.

[Maxwell]

Are these one-off instances, or are the winds of change really blowing like my progressive friends would like to deduce from these special elections?

I could buy arguments for the first, and then I can also buy that people here are immensely frustrated with the way Governor Fallin has run things. She implemented these structural deficits by reducing taxes for very wealthy people, and then when the economy began to slow we are forced to cut education instead of putting those taxes back in place. That's probably why the last couple special elections in deep Romney areas have been won by Democrats.

[Maxwell]

Suburban OKC and Tulsa are trending Democratic, but this is probably a freak accident. Don't expect it to hold in a year with full turnout, impressive nonetheless.

The trend of "metro area = Dem" "rural area = R" is not going to continue forever and only has so much further it can go.

The trend is only beginning in Oklahoma.

[Maxwell]

Hmmm... backlash against education cuts in the suburbs.  Could be nothing, but kind of echoes JBE's suburban margins running on similar issues.

Oh this too. I see posts about education cuts from deeply conservative Oklahomans. There is serious backlash over the way Fallin and the Republicans have governed this state. I'm gonna go ahead and guess that a Democrat will be Governor after 2018 elections. Joe Dorman is in perfect position for a comeback.

Is there a possibility of Mick Cornett pulling a Bill Walker?

absolutely, and mary fallin will pull a saddham hussein.