AZ-Sen: Fabrizio+Lee (R-Chamber of Commerce): McCain dominating, far above water

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Incumbency can turn into a disadavantage - There's a reason why Chris Dodd, George Voinovich, and Joe Lieberman didn't run for re-election.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I really agree with the consensus here: McCain's approvals are TERRIBLE in non-joke polls. And unlike Mitch McConnell's shocking double digit wallop, the Democratic candidate is very solid and 2016 is not prone to be a 2014 scenario. I think it's equally likely Dems pick this seat up whether or not McCain is the nominee.

McCain has already announced that he will campaign mostly on local issues. That usually works. And unlike other Republicans, he will do better among Hispanics. Ask Jeff Flake why he almost lost in 2012... because Carmona crushed him among Hispanics. I despise McCain, but there is no guarantee that an alternative candidate will be a better campaigner than him. In fact, it is really unlikely. McCane has the incumbency advantage on his side - just like Ayotte and Toomey.

Right, because Mary Landrieu's and Mark Begich's 'local issues' campaigns worked so well

Landrieu and Begich were also on ultra-hostile territory.

Begich almost won re-election in 2014 in an R+10 state against the best possible Republican candidate. Begich's campaign was a roaring success.