List Senators up in 2016 from most vulnerable to least vulnerable

[Maxwell]

1. Johnson (R-WI)
2. Kirk (R-IL)
3. McCain (R-AZ) (DOA in a Primary, Possibly DOA in general)
4. Toomey (R-PA)
5. Reid (D-NV)
6. Rubio (R-FL)
7. Ayotte (R-NH)
8. Bennet (D-CO)
9. Burr (R-NC)
10. Lee (R-UT) (Primary)
11. Murkowski (R-AK) (DOA in a primary, but wins easily if Indy)
12. Portman (R-OH)
13. Blunt (R-MO)
14. Coats (R-IN)

The rest are fine.

1 and 2 are in the fight for their lives, I'd say Johnson is worse off because he's a worse fit for his state, but then again, both are extremely solid campaigners.

Took a leap on 3, but if PPP is to be trusted on the approvals side, which I'm not entirely sure about, but if so, I can't imagine McCain surviving this. He's done in any way, shape or form, especially if Democrats recruit the right person.

4 through 9 are Lean R or D. Toomey and Reid are in more risk than the rest, and there is a more obvious challenger to Toomey than Reid, but I don't think any of these are in potent risk. Decent risk? sure. But I think they'll be fine unless they get a spectacular challenger in a decent year one way or the other. If it turns out to be a neutral year, prepare for these people to be just fine.

10 is tricky. Mike Lee is Lean favored in the primary, partially because Republican primaries are filled with conservative voters, but there are some powerful people stepping up to beat Lee. It'll be interesting.

12, 13, 14 go in a wave, and that is a MAYBE, but besides that, I think they are fine.