The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Maxwell]

Rauner may have won the GOP primary, but Pat Quinn was the real winner last night.  This race just got a lot uglier for Republicans.

Rauner is not the worst candidate could've put up: with Rutherford being scandal-ridden, and Brady far too conservative for the state, Rauner is a better fit AND he has more big business on his side. That being said, Dillard would've neutralized union support and probably beat Quinn in a wash, so that's sad. Nevertheless, I think Rauner has a shot at this, but he's already said some pretty toxic things.

[Maxwell]

Walter Jones' last term may be coming up soon: he's only at 52%. Even if he beats Griffin, he probably won't survive a second time.

And Aiken may not even win his primary: I thought he was close to a sure thing.

[Maxwell]

Lee Terry only won his primary by 6. I think he's headed toward a loss in the general.

[Maxwell]

Lee Terry only won his primary by 6. I think he's headed toward a loss in the general.

Why was it so close in the first place?

He's always been an exceptionally weak incumbent (reminds me a bit of John Sullivan, but in a less Republican district).  His comments about the government shutdown might've simply been the last straw.

I mean, he won by only 2 points in 2012. Offing Terry is a very serious Democratic prospect (or should be), especially since Ashford seems like a solid candidate.

[Maxwell]

I'm gonna go out on a limb for the Idaho Gubernatorial election:

Idaho - 53% Otter, 40% Fulcher, 4% Brown, 3% Bayes

During Otter's last primary, he only survived by 27 (I know, right), and it seems like the challenges to him are only getting more serious.

[Maxwell]

Politico calls it for Wolf. He leads Schwartz 55-22.

[Maxwell]

Otters up 55-40, Looks like he'll win yet another term as Governor, and judging that he is one of three republicans to vote against the Patriot Act, that's a good thing.

[Maxwell]

Looks like Patricks controversies were canceled out by the terrible, desperate campaign run by Dewhurst. I mean, seriously, what the hell was he thinking?

[Maxwell]

From what I've seen from the New Jersey Senate Primary, Murray Sabrin may finally win his first GOP primary.

[Maxwell]

The anti-King Democrats couldn't coalesce around anyone. Either way, it wasn't as if Dems were going to win New Mexico.

[Maxwell]

Politico finally calls it for King, who is currently ahead of Webber 35-23.

[Maxwell]

Aren't the democrats the ones who put that system into place? It's hilarious they keep being screwed by it.

[Maxwell]

Yep. Perez is still up with about 2400 with 100% in. Wow. And last night it looked like he would be the GOP's spoiler in this race.

I'm not sure this is over yet. Absentee ballots dropped of on election day are generally not counted right away.

Aren't the democrats the ones who put that system into place? It's hilarious they keep being screwed by it.

It was a Proposition. The Democrats and Arnold did refer it to the voters as part of Republican Abel Maldonado's extortion for voting for a budget. Too bad that the Proposition reducing the 2/3rds majority to simple for passing a budget didn't pass a little earlier. I think all 6 political parties opposed the Proposition.

I think it's probably safe to say that Perez will make the runoff. Don't absentees tend to favor Democrats?

Schwarzenegger and Maldonado were the only two people who publicly backed prop 14 in 2010 to chance the primary system. The legislature had to stomach sending the prop to the voters as part of a compromise to get the budget through. Basically everyone prayed it wouldn't pass, but it did 53-47ish.

I thought it still took a 2/3 majority to pass a budget? No reason to change that rule since the legislature's majorities tend to be so lopsided anyway.

That statement confuses me. Everyone prayed it wouldn't pass, but it did? Doesn't that seem to imply that a majority of people wanted it to pass?

[Maxwell]

I didn't bother to comment on this but New Mexico really needs to start doing runoff elections.

King is that bad?

[Maxwell]

Currently NOTA leads in the Nevada Democratic Primary. LOL

[Maxwell]

AoSHQDD calls NV-LG for Hutchison.

We'll see, but still, good news!

[Maxwell]

I didn't bother to comment on this but New Mexico really needs to start doing runoff elections.

King is that bad?

He's just an uninspiring Martha Coakley type with a ceiling of support. This is I think the fourth or fifth time he's run for Governor/Senator, each time he gets his base 35-40% to Udall/Richardson/Denish 60-65%. This time the field was split and his usual support was enough to win it.

He would not have won a runoff.

King should seriously be running in NM-2. Pearce is a nightmare

On a side note, Gary King has never lost a Democratic primary before. He has never run for US Senate and this is his first go for Governor. The only election he has ever lost was for US House in 04.

That's actually not true.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=29608

[Maxwell]

Henry McMaster looks like he will be the South Carolina Lieutenant Governor, he currently leads Campbell 2-1.

[Maxwell]

CO GOP nominated a birther. Wonderful. I was hoping for a frustrated voter rise in Kopp's numbers, though I have to say his performance is pretty strong.

[Maxwell]

CO GOP nominated a birther. Wonderful. I was hoping for a frustrated voter rise in Kopp's numbers, though I have to say his performance is pretty strong.

Baeuprez is a birther??

Yep, he even said about Obama "if he IS an American, different kind of American than anyone else I know"

[Maxwell]

My guess is Brownback gets just under 70%, lets say 68-32.

Kobach wins by a similar margin, and Gossage narrowly edges out Shultz and Selzer in the Insurance Commissioner race.

Do you think that SurveyUSA poll was off by that much? they had the primary at 55-37 Brownback.

[Maxwell]

He's leading by less than I expected him to and his lead is shrinking, that press conference may be doing damage after all.

[Maxwell]

He's leading by less than I expected him to and his lead is shrinking, that press conference may be doing damage after all.

Foley is doing worst in Fairfield County, which is in the New York City TV market.  There has been nothing about that press conference on NYC TV - and I've seen zero campaign ads on NYC over-the-air TV.  That suggests the split and (relatively) declining numbers is a geographic thing.  Both are from Fairfield County, but McKinney has greater name recognition there than in the rest of the state as his legislative district is in Fairfield.

Foley is winning almost every town that's fully reported.

Didn't know that, that's interesting.

[Maxwell]

AZ-GOV Primary:
32% Ducey
31% Smith
15% Jones
13% Bennett
7% Thomas
2% Riggs

Lol Riggs.

But Ducey keeps it at Likely R, while Smith would move the race to Safe R, since he's far less controversial. Brewer actually seems to be positioning herself as Establishment GOP after originally rising from the Tea Party movement.

FL-GOV Primary:
74% Crist
26% Rich

Rich doesn't have a shot, but I think she can do a little better than expected due to lack of enthusiasm for Crist.

[Maxwell]

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Ew I got him too.