2004: Mission Accomplished!

[Maxwell]

I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.

I forgot Georgia did run offs, I will do those next!

[Maxwell]

The Peculiar case of Georgia and Lousiana: Run-up to the Run-Off



"Congressman Isakson thought he had this thing locked  up, but our campaign has been in Georgia, connecting with people, and I think this Senate seat is going to be the People's seat. They want someone who isn't beholden to special interests, and I clearly won't be."



"Georgia knows me. They know I'm reliable, they know I've represented their interests for years. Who they don't know is Mr. Oxford. They don't know how much he pays in taxes, and in these last months, I am going to demand we see his tax returns! We can't have someone who is taking advantage of a broken system in the office of Senator."

In Georgia, Cliff Oxford faced a hard obstacle: facing a strong candidate in Johnny Isakson, without the turnout of a Presidential election, in deep red Georgia. Money wasn't tight though, as a millionaire, Oxford was able to keep up with Isakson. However, Isakson, as of late taking a populist route, began ragging Oxford's business dealings, and demanding to see his tax returns. This helped Isakson considerably in the run up polls, and Oxford began to drop hard.

Georgia Results:
56.2% Congressman Johnny Isakson
43.8% Businessman Cliff Oxford

"Lousiana has seen the problems with tax and spend policies. I won't embrace them, my opponent does. I will embrace common sense policies that save Lousianans money."



"David Vitter is having relationships with prostitutes. Now is that what Lousiana wants? I want someone who will represent Louisana to the fullest, and that's what I'd do as Senator."

Congressman Chris John went hard on the offensive when they made it to the run-off. However, without proper turnout, it was as if he was floundering for anything. Vitter kept on the talking points, and even though Johns margins were creeping closer, Vitter seemed safe. That's why the close margin came as a shock to the Vitter campaign:

Lousiana Result:
50.2% Congressman David Vitter
49.8% Congressman Chris John

[Maxwell]

The First Couple of Months

Cabinet of President John Edwards



"I, John Edwards, do solemnly swear..."

Vice President: William Cohen
Chief of Staff: Kathleen McGlynn

Secretary of State: Richard Halbrooke
Secretary of Treasury: Roger C. Altman
Secretary of Defense: Warren Rudman
Attorney General: Dennis Archer
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secretary of HHS: Jeanne Shaheen
Secretary of Homeland Security: Lee Hamilton
Secretary of Transportation: Ray LaHood
Secretary of Labor: David Bonior
Secretary of Commerce: Jim Johnson
Secretary of Housing and Development: Andrew Cuomo
Secretary of Energy: Wesley Clark
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Merrill McPeak
Secretary of Education: Rahm Emanuel

Approvals by March 2005:
53% Approve
35% Disapprove
12% Unsure

On January of 2005, John Edwards was inaugerated as the 44th President of the United States. Getting started right away, he announced a huge amount of cabinet employees and got most of them through with few controversies. He made sure to eliminate just about everyone from the Bush administration, even some of the less controversial ones, to clean out the administration with his own people.

The most controversial pick was that of Wesley Clark for the Department of Energy. Liberals criticized the pick, noting his close relationship with Former Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and demanding a more liberal nominee. Clark noted his support of ethanol and his dedication towards a more energy independent country, but many slammed the book on him. It took convincing of Republicans, which Cohen still had distant but existent relationships, in order to push Clark through.

Republicans attempted to filibuster Richard Halbrooke, former Clinton ambassador, but he nevertheless managed to pass by a relatively narrow 62-35 in the Senate. The quickness of these proceedings was embraced by the press.

Senate Leadership:
Majority Leader: Harry Reid (D-NV)
Majority Whip: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Leader: Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Minority Whip: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Leadership:
Speaker of the House: Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
Majority Leader: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority Whip: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Foreign Policy - First Elections, New Terror Strategy

In foreign policy, the first elections occurred in Iraq, which Republicans quickly hailed as the beginning of a democratic Iraq. Edwards, testing out a pragmatic foreign policy, acknowledges the war was done under faulty intelligence, and promises to move quickly toward a safer Iraq, keeping troops in the region to help secure progress before any form of exit. This causes some anger from fellow Democrats, but his approvals hold steady. Bombings still occur, and the overall mission is still questionable.

Secretary Holbrooke announced the roll out of a new strategy in combating terror in Afghanistan. Upon receiving new information on the location of Osama Bin Laden, Holbrooke shifted more troops over to Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to search for him. Knocking out terror as a whole required defeating the taliban in their country, and the focus of foreign policy was from then on shifted to that mission.

Domestic Front - Poverty and Tort Reform



"I said from Day 1 of this campaign that we would fight the good fight against Poverty, and with a significant win of this office, I am going to keep my promise. We are drafting the first comprehensive legislation combating poverty since LBJ's 'Good Society', and I can assure all of you, we need this for our children. I am hoping we can bring along people of all strides, Republican, Democrats, Independents, to get their voices and make the legislation as inclusive as possible."

On an economic agenda, the Edwards people and the Democratic Senate began drafting a large piece of anti-poverty legislation. Minority Leader Jon Kyl said of the legislation in a backroom meeting with Republican Leadership -

"The bill from the President's office is dead in the water. We will not negotiate on it. We will not build on it. We will not stand with it. Our mission in the next four years is to defeat John Edwards and this is the centerpiece of his administration."

This comment sparked a firestorm in the press, and caused Minority Leader Kyl's approvals to drop dramatically. Edwards and many other key members of the administration called on Republicans to denounce the words of Senator Kyl and build on the project. Even Jack Kemp called out Kyl for his comments and said it was shameful that "Republicans won't even talk about poverty!"

More on the Domestic front, Edwards vetoes the Class Action Fairness Act, calling the bill "a travesty, a violation of the peoples rights, and an expansion of power for large corporations". The Senate votes largely in favor of the piece of legislation, but barely miss the veto override requirement (64-33), with some prominent Democrats switching their vote after the Edwards veto. Republicans called the Democrats cowards for their backing off the legislation and the leader of the fight, Senator Chuck Grassley, stated that he would continue to fight for tort reform in the Senate.

[Maxwell]

Foreign Progress, but problems continue at home



"The President is dedicated to increasing spending and running up deficits, all the while the mission in Iraq is becoming a disaster in front of our very eyes. This Presidents negligence toward the Troops is disgusting, and we will be proposing a surge of troops in Iraq."

Presidential Approval (July 30th, 2005):
47% Approve
45% Disapprove

As of the end of July, Republicans have continued to stall the President's poverty agenda, pointing to high levels of spending and called it a distraction from the War on Terror that is going on. They have similarly blocked other pieces of legislation pushed by the President, wanting to focus on the war at hand.

"Gun control is a crucial issue, and we need to fight the problem of gun violence continually, and with a new Democratic Senate, I believe we can work together to defeat this problem by banning Assault Weapons."

On July 5th, the Administration stood with Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) and Senator Susan Bysiewicz (D-CT) with the introduction of a slightly reformed Assault Weapons Ban. Originally wanting to re-introduce the bill wholesale, Feinstein got concerned when Senators Goddard and Bowles told her straight forward that they would not vote for any Gun Control that isn't changed fundamentally to meet the center. Most vote counters still don't take the bill seriously, with very few Republicans willing to cross over on any Democratic bill, and many Democrats hesitant to join the administration on such a prominent issue as guns.

"The President is targeting real terror. In Iraq, we are working on the mission, finishing up what we are doing, and shifting our focus on what needs to be done. And what needs to be done is eliminate Osama Bin Laden and the Talaban, and we are doing just that in Afghanistan."

In Iraq, A Prime Minister was recently elected, and Jalal Talabani was elected President of Iraq. Bombing still occurs in Iraq, and it's still volatile. Republicans have attacked the President mercilessly for his handling of Iraq, even going on to calling him a coward for his shift of focus on Afghanistan. The administration still is very hesitant to any sort of withdraw, much to the impatience of Democratic liberals.

Progress is being made in Afghanistan, however. Major terrorists are being targeted and knocked off in the region, and the administration is heading closer and closer to Osama bin Laden. Defense Secretary Warren Rudman noted progress in this area, as did State Secretary Richard Holbrooke, and many are viewing foreign affairs as a success for the President, but domestic policy to be going through a bad start.

Virginia and New Jersey Polls
45% Kaine - 44% Davis - 4% Potts
51% Corzine - 32% Schundler

New Jersey Dem Primary: 56% Corzine, 38% Codey
New Jersey Rep Primary: 43% Schundler, 41% Forrester, 13% Murphy
Virginia Rep Primary: 51% Davis, 43% Hager
Virginia Dem Primary: 100% Kaine

[Maxwell]

I take it Kaine holds the Virginia governorship for the Democrats.

Warner's massive popularity helps him.

On McCain: I believe Gov. Napolitano would appoint a placeholder.

Normally, I would agree. However to respond to the McCain thing: It was the year of his election. I think Napolitano would just let the election happen. Again, this is me, not really knowing Arizona law, so maybe I'm off.

[Maxwell]

Virginia Gubernatorial Results:
52.3% Congressman Tom Davis
46.7% Lt. Governor Tim Kaine



New Jersey Gubernatorial Results:
47.1% Senator Jon Corzine
45.3% Mayor Bret Schundler

In Virginia and in New Jersey, Democrats saw the effects of effective/ineffective candidates. Tom Davis ran on a campaign of bipartisanship, running toward the center, criticizing President Edwards for his lack of leadership, not signing a bipartisan tort reform bill, and pushing hard on poverty. By the time the election came around, Tim Kaine, who had been leading until October, had nothing to do but lose.

In New Jersey, Senator Corzine's business dealings increasingly came under scrutiny, and by the time of the election, Corzine was one of the most unpopular people to win elected office. Schundler struck voters as far too conservative for New Jersey, which lead to the very unpopular Jon Corzine to be elected the states Governor, by a shockingly close margin (most polls still had Corzine ahead by 5-10).

[Maxwell]

If Kaine had lost in 2005 to Davis, would the Dems get him to run for the US Senate in 2006 against Allen ?

We know Mark Warner would likely win the other US Senate seat in 2008.

I'm not sure, probably not since the stench of losing might be too much.

[Maxwell]

"We are still working hard to fight another War on Poverty, but Republicans are continuing to push and shove this project away. These are the same people that fought social security and Medicare, two programs that Americans are empowered by. We need to fight poverty further, and we need to do so now."

Presidential Approval (Dec. 2005):
42% Approve
51% Disapprove

The President begins to face the problems of a divided congress: Gun Control, in spite of being negotiated, is soundly rejected, with Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Tony Knowles, Blanche Lincoln, Ken Salazar, and Evan Bayh voting against it on the Democratic side, and only Senators Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Pat Toomey, a major contributor to the legislation, voting for it on the Republican side. Many Democrats and some Republicans were on the fence on the legislation, and some felt that bringing out Former Senator and VP William Cohen would've pushed this legislation closer to passage, but the filibuster from Senator DeMint ultimately sunk the legislation.

Increasingly, poverty legislation looked impossible. With Senators Brad Carson, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh still on the fence, and very few Republicans are even willing to talk, citing the administrations need for revenue on the project. Senator David Vitter took to the hill to make it clear: the bill will not pass unless there are cuts to other projects and no taxes.

Republicans also started pointing to Edwards as LBJ - a vicious, power hungry man whose appetite for destruction knows no bounds. The failure of Vietnam in Iraq's management, the failure of Poverty legislation to the Good Society, the comparisons fell into place.

"Democrats want a big bloated program. They think, because they had electoral victories in 2004, that they can just run roughshod with their agenda. Well, John Edwards seems very power hungry to me, and with his failed management of Iraq, and failed management of just about everything else in his administration, he's going to go down in history as a vicious, failed President. We don't like to be blamed, we just want to fix the problem without costing American tax payers more money. If our concerns aren't met, there will be no Poverty legislation. It will fail."

On the judiciary, William Rehnquist died on October 3rd, 2005, after a struggle with thyroid cancer, and along with him, Justice O'Connor announced she would leave the court upon the confirmation of her successor. Democrats saw this as an opportunity to put two people forward to the Supreme Court to change the balance of the court. However, the proceedings were some of the most hostile and most partisan ever seen.

Associate Justice Eric Holder

The first nominated was Eric Holder for O'Connor's spot in the Court. Eric Holder was the deputy Attorney General under Bill Clinton, and was heavily criticized for his role as Attorney General. Holder struck some Democrats as a problem, due to his views on national security and the Patriot Act, and this allowed for a rare bipartisan coalition to form on both sides. Diane Feinstein voted with Lindsay Graham, but Ron Wyden voted with David Vitter, as more partisan Republicans rejected the pick as "packing the courts". The vote ended up an embarrassingly narrow 53-44, but Holder was confirmed.

Chief Justice Sonia Sotomayor

The other nominee was Sonia Sotomayor. Less controversial than Holder in terms of her judicial record, but more so in terms of her past. She was the beneficiary of affirmative action, causing many Republicans to say that she did not earn her position. Striking a nerve, she spoke out against these comments as a kind of racism, and after her hearing, not many were questioning her qualifications. She passed more easily - 63-32, but for a Supreme Court nominee, still very narrowly.

On foreign affairs, prisoners in Iraqi prisons were found to be tortured, beaten, and starved. After some progress in terms of getting the country together in the middle of July, and it seems the country is unraveling. More problems are arising, more bombings in the country are occurring, and more people are dying. The decision keeps coming to Edwards door: should we leave the chaotic mess in Iraq to save our own men, or should we continue to try to stabilize the region. Public opinion had continued to sour on the War, looking at it as another Vietnam situation. The Edwards people were still concerned over whether or not to leave with Halbrooke feeling like leaving is the right decision, and Cohen and Rudman still concerned over whether that's the right decision.

[Maxwell]

Senate/Governors Update

Senate Retirements
Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
Senator Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
Senator Jim Jeffords (I-VT)

Open Senate Polling
Hawaii - 48% Lingle, 43% Case/47% Lingle, 41% Abercrombie
Maryland - 46% Cardin, 45% Steele
Massachusetts - 46% Capuano, 39% Weld
Minnesota - 45% Klobuchar, 42% Kennedy
Vermont - 44% Sanders, 43% Douglas

The beginning of the electoral season has proven to be a strong recruiting cycle for Republicans. With the retirement of popular Senator Daniel Akaka, One term Republican Governor Linda Lingle has announced her candidacy for Senate, and at the right time too, her popularity puts her in the top tier of Governors in the nation. she leads Democratic primary challengers Congressman Ed Case and Congressman Neil Abercrombie by 5 and 6 points. In other states, Republlican recruits are competitive or near competitive (Former Governor Bill Weld trails by 7, but that makes him far more competitive than many of the last nominees for Ted Kennedy's seat. This cycle is proving to be toxic for Democrats.

Vulnerable Seats
Arizona - 44% Kyl, 42% Gordon
Florida - 45% Nelson, 44% Martinez
Michigan - 47% Stabenow, 43% Cox
New Jersey - 45% Kean, 38% Menendez
Pennsylvania - 46% Santorum, 44% Knoll
Rhode Island - 51% Chafee, 41% Whitehouse/ 46% Whitehouse, 36% Laffey
Tennessee - 47% Frist, 41% Ford/ 45% Bryant, 42% Ford
Washington - 48% Cantwell, 43% Rossi

With that being said, there are pick-up oppurtunties for Democrats: Even though democrats dislike Lieutenant Governor Knoll, Rick Santorum proves to be one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even Mike DeWine and Jim Talent, other relatively unpopular Republicans, have drawn meek opposition (DeWine leads Sherrod Brown by 10 points, Talent leads Nancy Farmer by 8 points, a strong margin for Missouri). The most unpopular Senator, Jon Kyl with a lowly 36% Approval rating, has remained content to fight for his re-election, maneuvering his way out of a Republican primary and battling Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon for the political fight of his life.

Republican primaries are also proving to play a pivotal role in the control of the Senate: Senator Bill Frist faces a strong primary challenge from Former Congressman Ed Bryant, and if he loses, Congressman Harold Ford faces an easier set of stairs to climb. Even more so in Rhode Island, where Lincoln Chafee leads Sheldon Whitehouse by 10 points, and Steve Laffey loses by that same 10 point margin to Whitehouse.

Vulnerable Governors
Arizona - 44% Napolitano, 41% Salmon
Illinois - 45% Topinka, 37% Blagojevich, 5% Whitney
Iowa - 48% Nussle, 38% Pederson
Kansas - 47% Brownback, 43% Sebelius
Maryland - 46% Ehrlich, 44% O'Malley
Michigan - 45% Camp, 41% Granholm
New York - 46% Pataki, 42% Spitzer
Oklahoma - 46% Henry, 45% Fallin
Pennsylvania - 47% Rendell, 42% Meehan
Texas - 32% Perry, 22% Strayhorn, 21% Bell, 14% Friedman
Wisconsin - 45% Green, 40% Doyle

Democrats have a lot of Gubernatorial seats to fear losing. Incumbents are falling hard, particularly in states with strong Republican recruits. Only Maryland, where Bob Ehrlich faces the Maryland electorate, and New York, where Pataki faces the same, do Republicans look like they will have a hard time re-electing their Governor.

Gubernatorial Retirements
Ted Kulongoski (D-OR)
Bob Taft (R-OH)
Kenny Guinn (R-NV)
Linda Lingle (R-HI) [Running for Senate]
Jim Douglas (R-VT) [Running for Senate]
Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Jim Risch (R-ID)
Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Bill Owens (R-CO)
Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Frank Murkowski (R-AK)

Competitive Retirement Races
Oregon - 47% Saxton, 43% Hill
Ohio - 46% Strickland, 38% Petro
Nevada - 48% Gibson, 37% Titus
Hawaii - 47% Hanabusa, 45% Aiona
Vermont - 46% Markowitz, 42% Dubie
Massachussets - 45% Patrick, 43% Brown
Colorado - 46% Beauprez, 42% Ritter
Arkansas - 43% Beebe, 43% Hutchinson

The plus, however, is a lot of Republicans are retiring, leaving oppurtunties for Democratic pick-ups. The hottest races are in states were liberal Republicans are running for Senate: State Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona narrowly for Governor, as does Deborah Markowitz over Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Out of nowhere State Senator Scott Brown has come to a shocking close margin already to U.S. Attorney Deval Patrick.

Kulongonski is the only outright Democratic Party retirement, and that's because his approval ratings are in the dumps and he would trail his primary opponent, Jim Hill, by a 10 point margin (44-34). Same happened with Frank Murkowski, but small town mayor Sarah Palin leads Mark Begich by a substantial margin.

[Maxwell]

Cannon-Bowles Entitlement Reform Package introduced

On February 22nd of 2006, Senator Chris Cannon (R-UT) and Senator Erskine Bowles (D-NC) put forward a bipartisan plan to reform Social Security and Medicare. The plan has members of both parties fuming: the plan raises the retirement age to 68, changes some elements that ultimately cuts benefits, and keeps Social Security solvent for another 30 years. Most Republicans critique the plan as not going far enough, while Democrats see it as an attack on Social Security. However, many Republicans and Democrats who are against it at the moment are saying that they would be willing to come to the table and negiotiate to find a better solution and amend the bill.

Co-Sponsors include Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Brad Carson (D-OK), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Evan Bayh (D-IN) , John Warner (R-VA), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Kit Bond (R-MO), Chuck Hagel (R-NE).

Poverty has continued to stall, with Republicans continuing to budge and Democrats such as Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Evan Bayh still holding back on the bill. However, one notable Republican hopped on board: Senator John Warner of Virginia. After conceding on a couple of provision, the aging Republican Senator kept his word and came on to support the legislation. In a televised statement, he said -

"This has been a far longer process than I think most would imagine would be ideal. However, over the course of this debate, I have come over to the idea of this bill, and I have no choice but to go on my word and endorse this legislation. Poverty is a serious problem in this country, and we, in congress, have to do our part to fight it, and this legislation has ceded to a realistic middle ground that won't bust the budget to do so."

Naturally, Senator Warner has earned the spite of his fellow Republicans, with some in leadership threatening to take away his positions on all of his committees. Warner announced at that time he would not be running for re-election, so this may be the last straw of whether he resigns before his term ends, or if he just finishes out his term.

Scandal: Hundreds of Millions in agriculture subsidies have been going to dead farmers!



"Under the Bush administration, the agriculture program had opened up a few loopholes that had exploited then, and since those numbers have exploded, that has become a massive problem where money from the department has sunk into people who aren't alive. I will take some of the blame myself, but this is a problem of efficiency, and we are thinking of a solution to this."

On March 1st, 2006, scandal hit the Agriculture Department, after a discovery that hundreds of millions of Agriculture subsidies have been given to dead farmers. The programs ineffeciency is being hit hard by Republicans and Democrats, with Agriculture based Senators Chuck Grassley, Tom Harkin, Brad Carson, and Jim Inhofe calling for Secretary Vilsack's resignation. Vilsack's office has reported that they will be working hard to fix the loophole, but some sources on the hill are saying that after the introduction of reform to the program, Vilsack will be leaving the administration.

Some are saying this scandal goes deeper, but at this moment, no evidence of that has arisen.

President Edwards Approval (Mar. 2006):
38% Approve
58% Disapprove

With the agriculture department debacle, a stalling economy, and a unwillingness to back a lot of bills that reach his desk, President Edwards has had a bad first year in office. Foreign policy is where things have seemingly gone better, but the terror situation has not gotten significantly better, and more and more Americans are becoming testy on Iraq. Only 28% of Americans say we should stay in Iraq, with the significant change being a massive drop in Republican support. Senators Chuck Hagel and John Warner introduced legislation that would get troops out of Iraq within the next year, which was endorsed by several more liberal Democrats and some moderate Republicans. However, the bill failed to reach post-filibuster range, and was rejected.

The administrations combination of populist domestic policy and third way foreign policy, while on the outskirts what got him elected and seemingly popular, has thus far proven to be hindrance, with his rejection of a lot of bills causing grief among all sides. Indeed, it's time for a change of heart, before its too late.

[Maxwell]

Would we see any African American governors elected during the Edwards presidency ?

What happened to Deval Patrick?

Deval Patrick is running for Governor of Massachussets against State Senator Scott Brown, who is surprisingly capable at this point in time. It's a whole 'nother thing whether he wins against Patrick though.

[Maxwell]

Patrick BETTER win because most people are tired of GOP governors after 16 years in Massachusetts.

lol k

[Maxwell]

June 2006 - Movement of the Meter

Cannon, Wyden, and Baucus to introduce New War on Poverty Alternative

 

In what continues to be a disappointing senate election for Republicans, Chris Cannon has introduced with Oregon Senator Ron Wyden and Montana Senator Max Baucus an alternative plan for the New War on Poverty. It gets rid of a lot of key centerpieces to the Edwards reform such as replacing the housing program with a housing credit, but the plan is considered by many in the Senate an alternative with a stronger chance of passage. The administration is still mulling a decision to promote the alternative or fight for the current bill, but either way, passage of any Poverty bill is going to be difficult due to a filibuster by Senator McConnell.

Cannon has led the charge on many bipartisan reforms, causing his numbers to be in the dumps among Republican voters. Cannon has said he intends to keep going as a Senator of Utah, but chances are, his re-election chances are looking tough already.

In spite of some populist elements in his campaign, Edwards signed the Bahrain-United States free trade agreement. This came as no surprise to those on the inside: while Edwards was opposed to Free Trade in the Senate, he had forced through some stronger mechanisms to make it so that it wasn't a complete cop out, but overall, for his original fans and suppoters, it was a sell out. Overall, though, this issue caused little to no headway to his already dismal approvals.

Edwards to resign the Patriot Act



Edwards Approval:
36% Approve
58% Disapprove
6% Unsure

President Edwards, after some controversy over a lower level administration member resigning due to some belief that he would veto the reauthorization of the Patriot Act, signed it. This struck some Democrats as a defeat for electing Edwards as President, but others saw the Patriot Act as unfortunate but necessary. That was the message the President and Vice President sent, seeing as their continued third way tactics on Foreign Policy were in action.

In May, the Iraqi Government began to function, and several Republicans and Democrats introduced timetables for troop withdraws. Chuck Hagel and Russ Feingold put together a Senate package that gained the most support, but failed under the weight of mainline Democrats and Neoconservative Republicans. Under the weight of this movement, Edwards announced a "we broke it, we have to fix it" strategy on Iraq, saying that we need to wait until the Iraqi Government wants us to leave before we can leave the region.

Edwards approval puts him in a dangerous zone for Democrats in the midterm, but not only that, his numbers put him in a bad range to run for re-election. He's looking more and more like a one term President.

Early Presidential Look: Edwards way behind

53% Giuliani - 34% Edwards
51% Bush - 34% Edwards
50% Thompson - 36% Edwards
47% Romney - 37% Edwards
46% Watts - 38% Edwards
45% Hagel - 33% Edwards
45% Sanford - 37% Edwards
43% Paul - 37% Edwards
42% Bolton - 40% Edwards

Republican Primary Poll:
24% Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani
20% Former Governor Jeb Bush
12% Former Senator Fred Thompson
8% Former Congressman J.C. Watts
6% Governor Mark Sanford
4% Governor Mitt Romney
2% Senator Chuck Hagel
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Ambassador John Bolton
33% Undecided

The first major poll of the next Presidential cycle has Edwards looking way behind. He trails every single Republican, even Ron Paul and John Bolton. He faces worst against Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who he trails by a whopping 19 points. However, Edwards people say they aren't worried about the election at the moment, it's clear that he will be a facing an uphill battle should he want to be re-elected President.

The most aggressive campaigners at the moment are Governor Mitt Romney and Former Congressman J.C. Watts, who have both been talking to fundraisers and have been fairly obvious about their ambitions. Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush, both considered top tier for the role, have been less obvious, but both have shown some willingness to run for President.

[Maxwell]

2006 Mid-terms

Before
50 Democrats
49 Republicans
1 Independent

Pick-Ups
Hawaii - 50% Lingle, 48% Abercrombie
Maryland - 49% Steele, 48% Cardin
Florida - 50% Martinez, 49% Nelson
Massachusetts - 51% Weld, 47% Capuano
New Jersey - 55% Kean, 44% Menendez
Rhode Island* - 56% Whitehouse, 42% Laffey
Tennessee* - 53% Bryant, 45% Ford

*Primaried Incumbents

After
53 Republicans
46 Democrats
1 Independent

Democrats faced a hard time with mid-terms: after failures of the administration on war on poverty legislation and stalling progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Democratic Party lost a number of important seats while failing to knock out any of the feared Republicans. Controversial Minority Leader Jon Kyl will be moving to Majority Leader after defeating Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, and Senator Rick Santorum defeated Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll.

As for the House, Republicans picked up 30 seats, growing their known majority. However, with the retirement of Dennis Hastert, Eric Cantor moves up to Speaker of the House, leap frogging John Boehner, who holds on to his role as Majority Leader.

With the announcement of these victories, Republicans are calling on President Edwards to co-operate with Republicans, announcing an agenda of cutting spending, lowering taxes beyond the Bush rates, and putting forward bipartisan tort reform. As well, foreign policy leaders in the Republican Party are actively pushing President Edwards to take a more proactive role in Iraq, noting the administrations failures in the region.

"Progress has been slow, and I will take some of the blame for that. I have not been able to get through everything we need to for the American people, and for that, I am sincerely sorry. I will work with the new Republican congress to move things along, and to try to remedy the situation."

It was clear to some, even in the administration, that the President had lost control of the White House. Education Secretary Rahm Emanuel resigned to run for Senate in Illinois, and Tom Vilsack resigned as Agriculture Secretary under heat for the Dead Farmers scandal, which had bloated increasingly into wasted funds all across the Farm Subsidies program. Many in the administration quietly had doubts over whether the President even wanted to continue this far out.

His speech post-election was strong, but it wasn't believeable: Edwards didn't seem into anything he was saying. He was in a funk of sorts. The question now is whether or not he will be able to escape.

[Maxwell]

President Edwards - I will not give up



"What we see today is a small stepback. I know a lot of people have come against this administration, but we will not give up in our attempt to bring prosperty to this country. I admit I have been more forthright than I should have, and as a result, I will work harder to go across the aisle and bring solutions to the American people."

Approval Ratings
38% Approve
56% Disapprove

Potential Democratic Primary Poll
56% President Edwards
33% Senator Kerry

58% President Edwards
28% Fmr. Governor Dean

63% President Edwards
17% DNC Chair Daschle

January 2007 - President Edwards began the new administration amidsts the failure of his war on poverty legislation, killed by a vote of 53-45. Republican Senators Norm Coleman, John Warner, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Chris Cannon, and Gordon Smith voting with the Democrats, and Democratic Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, and Tony Knowles voting with Republicans. One senator from each side (Paul Sarbanes and Orrin Hatch) did not vote on the matter, both absent from Washington that day.

The administration became more co-operative on a couple of issues - on guns, the administration searched strenuously for a middle ground, communicating with new, swing Republican Senators like Linda Lingle, Michael Steele, Bill Weld, Tom Kean Jr., and Pat Toomey. Along with that, the Edwards administration caved on entitlement reform, with Treasury Secretary Roger Altman stating that certain things must be done in order to make Social Security solvent. Republicans are still holding out on raising the retirement age (wanting 70 rather than 68), but it looks like that is more and more likely.

Because of this, Democrats have increased their fury on Edwards, and are beginning to think of dumping the incumbent President. One person who is incresingly tired of President Edwards and making it known is Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Senator who emphasizes his foreign policy credentials and his bipartisan ability, who has criticized Edwards for being a flat out failure. Kerry has made it known his Presidential ambitions before with his failed 2004 campaign, and is about to make it known again.

"Everything the President has done has been rejected by this congress. Now, I know that has something to do with the divided nature of government, I am aware, but the fact that NOTHING this President proposes gets through is disturbing. I think we need new leadership, both of the Democratic Party, and in the White House. Time is up for this man to prove his worth!"

Meanwhile, the Republican Party looked at its position with optimistic caution: knowing that Democrats are weak, but keenly aware of previous occurrences of the situation (such as the 2004 elections). Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Former Governor Jeb Bush were looking like leading frontrunners, but there was the question over who would be the leading conservative candidate. Several people were vying for that position, but the one who seemed to keep coming up was Former Governor Bill Owens of Colorado. In spite of some confusing gaffes and his divorce in his second term, Owens held high ratings with Coloradoans, and was ranked as one of the best Governors of the nation. Should he run, he might take some spotlight away from Jeb Bush.

Congressman J.C. Watts has already made it known that he will not make another run for President, instead has made it known he will either seek the office of Oklahoma Governor or Oklahoma Senator in 2010, and that marks off one potential candidate. Fred Thompson looks increasingly less likely, but conservative voters are still saying that he would be an optimistic choice for President.

Potential Republican Primary Poll
26% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
23% Fmr. Governor Bush
17% Fmr. Senator Thompson
8% Governor Sanford
7% Fmr. Governor Owens
3% Fmr. Governor Romney
2% Senator Santorum
2% Congressman Paul
12% Undecided

[Maxwell]

GOP Announcements as of April 2007

January - Rudy Giuliani announces Campaign for President. John Edwards announces campaign for re-election.

February - Jeb Bush announces he will not run for President.

March - Mark Sanford and Chuck Hagel announces exploratory committee for President.

April - Bill Owens, Ron Paul, John Bolten, and Rick Santorum announce campaigns for President, Mitt Romney announces he will not run. DNC Chairman Tom Daschle will also not run for President.



Republican Primary Poll as of April 2007
36% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
18% Fmr. Senator Thompson*
10% Fmr. Governor Owens
9% Governor Sanford
6% Senator Santorum
4% Congressman Paul
2% Fmr. Ambassador Bolten
2% Senator Hagel
13% Undecided



Democratic Primary Poll as of April 2007
55% President Edwards
35% Senator Kerry*
10% Undecided

or

57% President Edwards
29% Fmr. Governor Dean*
14% Undecided

* means they haven't announced any sort of sign they are running for President yet.

April 2007 - Polls continue to have President Edwards in a very unfavorable position. Senator John Kerry, who has been on a speaking tour criticizing the President, has not yet made an announcement, but most sources close to Kerry say he is more likely to run than he is to not run. On the otherside, Fmr. Vermont Governor and liberal Howard Dean has also been very critical of the Presidents tactics and abilities to get the job done, but is viewed as more unlikely to run. DNC Chairman Tom Daschle, another option Dems had of offing President Edwards, has decisively rejected talk, saying he will not run against the President. However, he also made no concession of endorsement, and maybe a worthy ally to whoever challenges Edwards.

But either way, Democrats face a starkly uphill battle. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced his run for the Presidency in late January, and has been holding a steady lead over Fred Thompson, someone who conservatives are pressuring more and more, and after a long period of not caring, is looking into a potential run. That would do some damage to promising conservative Governors, Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Bill Owens of Colorado, who are running are very good early operation. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also announced his candidacy, and while looked at by many pundits as a long shot, has a chance of running hard in the state of Iowa and appealing to christian voters, a strong segment of Republican Primary voters.

General Election Numbers
54% Giuliani - 35% Edwards
52% Giuliani - 37% Kerry
52% Giuliani - 32% Dean

46% Sanford - 40% Edwards
45% Sanford - 42% Kerry
45% Sanford - 37% Dean

48% Owens - 39% Edwards
46% Owens - 40% Kerry
45% Owens - 36% Dean

[Maxwell]

Presidential Announcements as of July 2007

May - Sen. John Kerry announces Presidential Campaign, Rep. J.C. Watts endorses Governor Mark Sanford at his official announcement, Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney endorses Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens

June - Rep. Dennis Kucinich announces Presidential Campaign

July - Fmr. Sen. Fred Thompson announces Presidential Campaign

Fred Thompson - Slipping as it begins?



Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
33% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
16% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
12% Gov. Sanford
11% Fmr. Gov. Owens
7% Sen. Santorum
4% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
2% Sen. Hagel

Iowa Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
23% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
15% Gov. Sanford
9% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Sen. Santorum
7% Rep. Paul
2% Sen. Hagel
1% Amb. Bolten

New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
24% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
18% Fmr. Gov. Owens
15% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
14% Gov. Sanford
7% Sen. Santorum
6% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
2% Sen. Hagel

July 10th, 2007 - the day after Fred Thompsons announcement, and already pundits are talking about it: what the hell just happened? It was sloppy organized, horribly timed, and by the time Thompson got on stage, he put everyone to sleep. He didn't even sound like he wanted to be President. His numbers are consistent everywhere, but it looks like in the next couple of months, they are going to drop. His campaign has already said he will not compete in the Iowa strawpoll, leaving Bill Owens out there to sweep.

The campaign that's on fire is that of Bill Owens. Giuliani has faced some gaffes on the trail, including taking a cellphone call during a rally, but Owens operation has been tiddy. He now possesses a 6 point lead in Iowa, the first voting state, and narrowly trails Rudy Giuliani on New Hampshire. His campaign is wonderfully positioned for the first batch of primaries, the ultimate deciders of this race.

Governor Mark Sanford, a key player in the primary and a strong receiver of votes should Thompson's campaign dissolve, received a key endorsement from J.C. Watts a former and maybe even future Presidential contender. This makes his insurgent campaign all the more formidable. Pundits are picturing a Owens and Sanford race, even with Giuliani leading both candidates by over 20 nationally.

Kerry - energetic out the gate!



Democratic Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
50% Pres. Edwards
38% Sen. Kerry
4% Rep. Kucinich

July 10th, 2007 - The President continues to be in peril, as Senator John Kerry is roaming the campaign trail and making it known that this campaign, if he is not nominated, will be a referendum on this Presidents policy failures and a lack of movement on the state of Iraq and Afghanistan. Kerry is gaining endorsements from both more liberal Democrats who view Edwards recent willingness to work on Social Security a betrayal, and more conservative Democrats who view Edwards unwillingness to move on his War on Poverty reform a sign that he lacks bipartisan credentials. It seems like President Edwards was doomed.

Congressman Kucinich also announced he would run for President, but to very little notice. Indeed, he would be running as an insurgent liberal candidate with very little funds, small amount of name recognition, and little ability to move amongst two giants. It was David v. two Goliaths, he would say.

President Edwards already began working on cleaning up his image, Gun Control was moving through the Senate quickly, with a strong amount of newly elected Republicans voting on it. The House still looked like a large task for the President, but many Northeastern Republicans showed some willingness to expand background checks.

[Maxwell]

Owens takes Iowa Straw Poll, but Santorum the real winner



Ames Iowa Straw Poll
36.8% Former Governor Bill Owens
18.7% Senator Rick Santorum
17.5% Governor Mark Sanford
10.2% Former Senator Fred Thompson
8.3% Congressman Ron Paul
7.2% WI: Governor Rick Perry
0.7% Ambassador John Bolten
0.4% Others
0.2% Senator Chuck Hagel

After a dramatic push in Iowa, Bill Owens wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll by a large margin. However, two notable things happened as well: the surge of Rick Santorum, who many predicted would only get single digits due to his abysmal fundraising, and the write-in campaign of Rick Perry, who many are thinking will run for President in 2008. Governor Mark Sanford slightly underperformed expectations, though no one expected a victory from him. The worst performance was not Chuck Hagel in last place, though his campaign is in terrible shape, it was fourth place of Former Senator Fred Thompson. Within a couple of weeks, excitement for his campaign has already dried up due to his completely uninspiring performance in the first Republican primary debate. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, as expected, opted out of the straw poll, as his numbers in Iowa are in the single digits.

Post-Straw Poll Iowa
27% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Gov. Sanford
13% Sen. Santorum
12% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
8% Mayor Giuliani
7% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
1% Sen. Hagel

In the first Republican Debate, Governor Owens came off as the strongest candidate, coming in at #1 in most post debate polls. Mayor Giuliani had his moments too, but when it came to questions of terror, he came off as comically over the top and scary. He also showed thin skin, getting clearly irritated when Governor Sanford provoked him on gun control. Senator Santorum went after Hagel and Paul on their rhetoric against the Iraq war, calling both "isolationists", and calling on them to renounce their views. He also ran as the working class candidate, and called out Governor Sanford for his weak economic record in South Carolina.

Senator Chuck Hagel has already made it known his frustration with the parties direction, and is seen as the most likely candidate to leave before the primaries even start. His campaign has stalled in Iowa, is trailing in 3rd in Nebraska, and is strained for cash, coming in last place in fundraising (even behind Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolten). Some even think that Hagel may endorse Senator Kerry, in his effort to off President John Edwards.

[Maxwell]

August - Chuck Hagel withdraws from the Republican race, makes no endorsement, Perry announced he would not run for President

September -  Dennis Kucinich endorses John Kerry for President

October - Kerry leads in Democratic Poll for the first time after going after Edwards background, Bernard Kerik scandal revealed in more detail



November Republican Primary Poll
27% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
19% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Gov. Sanford
10% Sen. Santorum
10% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten

November Republican Iowa Poll
30% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Sen. Santorum
16% Gov. Sanford
9% Rep. Paul
8% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
3% Amb. Bolten

November Republican NH Poll
24% Fmr. Gov. Owens
23% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
14% Gov. Sanford
9% Sen. Santorum
9% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
8% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten

November - In the first major development, the Bernard Kerik scandal has begun to hit Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and while he still leads nationally, he has finally lost his lead in the state of New Hampshire. The main person who has gained from the losses of Giuliani is obviously Colorado Governor Bill Owens, who has run as the compassionate conservative who can put forward bold policies for Republicans. Governor Mark Sanford has focused on a pent up win in South Carolina and campaigning hard in Florida, but his Iowa numbers have been robust considering his struggles. Still, it's no surprise that Senator Rick Santorum is passing him, and is starting to give Owens some troubles in Iowa. In spite of his weak fundraising, Santorum has made it known that he is the candidate for Iowa voters, and his numbers there are continuing to grow.

With the development of Bernard Kerik, some major Republicans have backed out of their endorsements of Rudy Giuliani. Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, originally planning to endorse Giuliani, has backed out completely, and is still waiting for someone to court his vote. Owens and Sanford are currently fighting for that endorsement, which could prove to be critical in the Florida primary.

The Crumbling Presidency



November Democratic Primary Poll
52% Sen. Kerry
43% Pres. Edwards

November Democratic Iowa Poll
48% Sen. Kerry
46% Pres. Edwards

November Democratic NH Poll
60% Sen. Kerry
28% Pres. Edwards

November - Making serious waves on the internet may be the first ever #, which was used by Senator Kerry, when he ended every speech he would say #RetireThisPresident, which has become a part of people's mindsets everywhere. Edwards accomplished a small gun control package in August, but nothing since then of any meaningful nature, and he has signed the watered down Republican budget, leading to more Democratic anger. Since then, he now trails Senator John Kerry by 9 points in the Democratic Primary. However, there is a silver lining - Edwards has a stronger organization in Iowa. Even though Kerry leads, many insiders in Iowa say that Kerry doesn't stand a chance. A surprise win in Iowa for Edwards could lead voters to return.

That being said, confidence in the war and the economy are low, and President Edwards is facing the brunt of that at town halls across the country, even people using the hashtag in front of him. Still, some are becoming more sympathetic to his cause, as he sat down and negotiated new Free Trade agreements with other countries and has still been fighting Republicans on their proposals, vetoing a tax cut and education voucher bill.

[Maxwell]

Final Iowa Tracking Poll
27% Fmr. Gov. Owens
21% Sen. Santorum
17% Gov. Sanford
10% Rep. Paul
7% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
2% Amb. Bolten

After massive resources spent, Owens still holds a strong lead over both Rick Santorum and Mark Sanford. However, his lead has been slipping, with a 13 point lead in November turning into a 6 point lead in January. Still, many were surprised when this was the result from the Iowa Caucuses:

Iowa Republican Caucus Results
25.2% Sen. Santorum
23.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
22.4% Gov. Sanford
14.2% Rep. Paul
9.5% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2.3% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.5% Amb. Bolten
1.6% Others

After all that money being thrown into the race, Owens lost in an upset to the second lowest fundraiser in the entire race. Santorum visited every single county in Iowa, did a retail politics strategy, doing town hall after town hall trying to win all the votes he could Iowa. Ron Paul did something similiar - he visited a large chunk of counties in Iowa, and managed to pull off a surprise 4th place - ahead of Fred Thompson.

Things looked bleak for Thompson and Giuliani, the original two frontrunners for the nomination, and they looked like they were being run out of their party. Still, Giuliani fought hard for a win in New Hampshire, where he narrowly trailed Former Governor Bill Owens. Unfortunately, Ron Paul's anti-war rhetoric, due to the current President in charge most likely, had been gaining more traction than expected, and New Hampshire seemed to doom the Former Mayor of New York City -

New Hampshire Republican Primary:
38.9% Fmr. Gov. Owens
20.1% Rep. Paul
16.2% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
9.8% Gov. Sanford
9.2% Sen. Santorum
3.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
1.4% Amb. Bolten
1.2% Others

After this point, Giuliani's fundraising dried, and even though he continued to campaign until Florida, his campaign was not considered serious anymore. Post-New Hampshire polling put him barely in double digits, while Bill Owens rose to the race frontrunner. The question now is, whether the front-runner can hold on.

Republican National Polling (Post-NH)
30% Fmr. Gov. Owens
22% Sen. Santorum
18% Gov. Sanford
10% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Rep. Paul
7% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2% Amb. Bolten

Michigan Republican Poll
29% Fmr. Gov. Owens
26% Sen. Santorum
21% Gov. Sanford
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
4% Rep. Paul
3% Fmr. Sen Thompson

South Carolina Republican Poll
43% Gov. Sanford
22% Fmr. Gov. Owens
15% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
6% Sen. Santorum
4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
3% Rep. Paul

Meanwhile in the Democrat race, President John Edwards began to be able to fight back. Citing Kerry's record of supporting the Iraq war in it's originality with no apologies, he ran as a populist again, citing the problems of congress as a result of Republican obstruction. With a finger on the pulse of the Iowa electorate, Edwards managed to win a surprising result.

Iowa Democratic Caucus Results:
56.4% Pres. Edwards
40.8% Sen. Kerry
2.8% Others

And after the Iowa Caucuses, news only got better for President Edwards - they have the location of Osama Bin Laden, and are on the way to knocking him off. This rallied the troops and raised Edwards approval to positive for the first time since 2005. New Hampshire looked like it could be a campaign ender for John Kerry, and as it turned out, Edwards managed a massive upset in the state after trailing by 30 just two months ago.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results:
50.9% Pres. Edwards
47.7% Sen. Kerry
1.4% Others

Kerry noted after his loss in New Hampshire that he had no intentions on leaving the race, but it looked like his campaign was dead. The post-NH polls have Kerry trailing by over 30 points. President Edwards began to run some general election type material, while Kerry's fundraising dried up. In a surprise, the President looked like a surefire win for his parties nomination.

Democratic National Poll (Post-NH)
64% Pres. Edwards
30% Sen. Kerry

General Election Polls
45% Owens v. 46% Edwards
41% Santorum v. 47% Edwards
43% Sanford v. 47% Edwards

[Maxwell]

Pictured: Senator Santorum, visibly disappointed in Michigan Results

Michigan Republican Primary
37.4% Fmr. Gov. Owens
30.6% Sen. Santorum
22.0% Gov. Sanford
4.6% Rep. Paul
2.1% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2.0% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.3% Others

Just after national polls started to put Senator Santorum as the main conservative challenge to Governor Owens, he loses the narrow contest in Michigan by a larger than expected margin. The Owens organization simply out-manuevered Senator Santorum at just about every turn. Even among working families, Santorum trailed Governor Owens by one. This has left some hoping for a challenge to abandon Santorum's bid. Even though his presence is still strong in the race, his momentum since Iowa has gone down.

Leading many donors to start looking again at Governor Mark Sanford. Mark Sanford has not run as strong a campaign as many expected, but he has run as a consistent, confidence inspiring conservative, and a challenge to the more establishment favored Owens. In spite of some polls putting Owens in contention in Sanford's own South Carolina, it proved to not even be a contest:

Pictured: Governor Sanford, celebrating a victory in his important home state

South Carolina Republican Primary
54.6% Gov. Sanford
16.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
11.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
9.4% Sen. Santorum
5.1% Rep. Paul
2.4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.0% Others

Nevada Republican Primary
36.5% Fmr. Gov. Owens
23.0% Gov. Sanford
21.1% Rep. Paul
10.5% Sen. Santorum
4.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
3.0% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.7% Others

Fred Thompson withdraws, endorses Sanford


Pictured: Fred Thompson, at his last rally, leaving the race

Post-SC Republican Poll
31% Fmr. Gov. Owens
24% Gov. Sanford
19% Sen. Santorum
10% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Rep. Paul

Florida Republican Poll
29% Fmr. Gov. Owens
29% Gov. Sanford
18% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
11% Sen. Santorum
4% Rep. Paul

Governor Sanford has seen a surge in the state of Florida, and as a result, the well organized Owens campaign is fighting back hard. Negative ads have never been so prominent. Sanford criticized Owens record for increasing taxes, while Owens has criticized Sanford for his odd tactics in the state of South Carolina and his weak economic record. Some are saying this is an opportune time for Mayor Giuliani, whose campaign has been floundering, to come up and surprise both candidates. However, judging by his numbers, his campaign has been shrinking incredibly, and after weeks of being in first place in Florida, he fell to 2nd last week, and 3rd this week. Even if he tries to ramp up efforts in the state, it looks increasingly unlikely for a Giuliani comeback.

Next Up: Democrats Pre-Super Tuesday!

[Maxwell]

The beginning and end of the Democratic Primary

Michigan - 70% Edwards, 29% Kerry, 1% Others
South Carolina - 81% Edwards, 18% Kerry, 1% Others
Florida - 65% Edwards, 34% Kerry, 1% Others

President Edwards sweeps the next three contests, to little surprise after upsetting in New Hampshire. However, Kerry's results in Florida managed to be a strong improvement from South Carolina, and that is because of an impassioned speech Kerry gave, displaying his emotion and showing that he isn't a robot. The tears managed to boost Kerry's numbers and made him more competitive. Still, he trails by over 10, and the Edwards campaign by this point had more endorsements and was better organized.

Super Tuesday
John Edwards - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee

John Kerry - Connecticut, Massachussets, New Jersey, New York

Senator Kerry withdraws

At every turn President Edwards managed to out-maneuver Senator Kerry, and as a result, Kerry withdrew from the Presidential contest the day after Super Tuesday. Still, his speech ignored President Edwards, and instead talked about moving forward on economic issues in the U.S., including reforms to secure our healthcare system for the future. This left Kerry in strong standing with Democrats, and he's now considered a future nominee, even with his weak performance in 2004.

Edwards approvals had been steadily rising since the passage of Universal Background Checks,  and the news on the hill is that the administration has made strong mends with moderate Republicans. The administration and Bill Weld passed a small scale infrastructure bill, with Linda Lingle, the administration passed storm prevention, and with David Vitter, the administration passed a long term fix for the problems of Lousiana and reforms to FEMA. In addition, foreign operations are clearer, Iraq violence is down, and things are looking more and more prosperous. Edwards holds a five point lead (49-44) over the top Republican (Owens) in the field, and an 11 point lead (51-40 and 49-38) over the two weakest (Santorum, Paul).

[Maxwell]

Sanford wins the Florida Primary!

Pictured: Mark Sanford at Florida Victory Party

Florida Republican Primary:
33.2% Gov. Sanford
31.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
16.4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
14.3% Sen. Santorum
3.6% Rep. Paul
1.2% Others

Giuliani exits, endorses Owens


Pictured: Giuliani's concession speech

"I think it's very clear who is capable to lead this nation and who is not. The Democratic Party clearly is not, and Governor Owens clearly is! We have one of the strongest candidates, and I believe he will be a great President."

Maine Republican Primary
38.6% Fmr. Gov. Owens
27.3% Gov. Sanford
19.8% Rep. Paul
12.9% Sen. Santorum
1.4% Others

Pre-Super Tuesday National Poll
32% Fmr. Gov. Owens
31% Gov. Sanford
21% Sen. Santorum
9% Rep. Paul

Mark Sanford's win in Florida has almost entirely erased the national gap between him and Bill Owens, leaving Rick Santorum in the dust. Ron Paul continues to have strong support in caucus states and in New England, but his chances are considered small, even as he's gained a stronger and stronger following since his 04 run. Giuliani endorsement only slowed Sanford's momentum a little, and it looks like it won't be a complete wipe out in Super Tuesday.

Still, Sanford's organization has been weaker than Owens, and Super Tuesday is all about having a strong apparatus at work. Santorum has worked to win some states, but the only state that has Santorum ahead is Arkansas, where he has the notable endorsement of Governor Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile, Sanford has consolidated the south, but beyond their, his numbers aren't as good as he is nationally. The Super Tuesday primaries are dominantly West and New England, and both of those regions are either weak for Sanford or strong for Owens. Either way, this is a contest that may halt the re-birth of Mark Sanford.

Head to Heads

General Election (Owens)
49% Pres. Edwards
44% Fmr. Gov. Owens

General Election (Sanford)
50% Pres. Edwards
42% Gov. Sanford

General Election (Santorum)
51% Pres. Edwards
40% Sen. Santorum

[Maxwell]

Super Tuesday - a win for Owens!

Owens - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Utah
Sanford - Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Santorum - Arkansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota

Post-Super Tuesday Delegate
Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens - 602 Delegates
Gov. Mark Sanford - 355 Delegates
Sen. Rick Santorum - 184 Delegates
Rep. Ron Paul - 33 Delegates

Post-Super Tuesday Republican Poll
35% Fmr. Gov. Owens
28% Gov. Sanford
22% Sen. Santorum
8% Rep. Paul

After Super Tuesday, Governor Owens returned to the lead, and Santorum managed to rise to the occasion and win some surprising victories in Minnesota and Missouri. Sanford accused the Republican Committee of stacking the deck in these primaries, but ultimately it was seen as a big victory for Governor Owens. Nevertheless, the next bunch of primaries looked to favor either Santorum or Sanford.

In spite of a good Super Tuesday performance, the movement of conservatives continued toward Sanford, and after holding a strong lead in Kansas, Sanford managed to catch up quickly and he won the primary and many primaries moving forward. Santorum's stock went down and Sanford became the conservative challenger to Bill Owens.

Kansas - 37% Sanford, 35% Santorum, 24% Owens, 4% Paul
Lousiana - 51% Sanford, 25% Santorum, 21% Owens, 3% Paul

D.C. - 53% Owens, 24% Santorum, 19% Sanford, 4% Paul
Maryland - 38% Sanford, 33% Owens, 25% Santorum, 5% Paul
Virginia - 44% Sanford, 30% Owens, 22% Santorum, 6% Paul

Washington - 42% Owens, 33% Sanford, 15% Santorum, 10% Paul
Wisconsin - 39% Owens, 38% Sanford, 17% Santorum, 6% Paul

Santorum withdraws, makes no endorsement



Post-Santorum Republican Polling
48% Fmr. Gov. Owens
40% Gov. Sanford
6% Rep. Paul

[Maxwell]

Senate Update

At risk Senate Seats
Alaska - 49% Ted Stevens, 40% Mark Begich
Arkansas - 44% Mark Pryor, 42% Generic
Colorado - 45% Wayne Allard, 40% Mark Udall
Iowa - 47% Tom Harkin, 39% Generic
Lousiana - 42% Mary Landrieu, 45% Generic
Michigan - 49% Carl Levin, 39% Generic
Minnesota - 48% Norm Coleman, 42% Al Franken
Montana - 48% Denny Rehberg, 40% Generic
New Hampshire - 47% John Sununu, 42% Sylvia Larsen
New Jersey - 45% Unknown v. 44% Unknown
New Mexico - 44% Tom Udall v. 44% Unknown
Oregon - 50% Gordon Smith v. 37% Unknown
South Dakota - 42% Tim Johnson, 46% Unknown
Virginia - 47% Mark Warner, 45% Tom Davis
West Virginia - 44% Jay Rockefeller, 45% Shelley Moore Capito

Senate races have not moved with President Edwards. The recent accomplishments of the administration have been a lot of the administrations doing, and like Clinton before him, President Edwards approvals show little coat-tails. A lot of incumbent Democrats are at risk - Mark Pryor, Tom Harkin, Mary Landrieu, Tim Johnson and Jay Rockefeller are either close or are trailing their opponents. Republicans are even thinking that Carl Levins seat is available, though many pundits disagree, especially with Pete Hoekstra leading.

Still Bill Owens seems to be trying to control who gets nominated. Santorum-endorser and Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is being challenged by Gunner DeLay, a candidate endorsed by Owens. Chief of Staff David Young is surging in the polls, and he is also an Owens endorsed candidate, after the weak campaign Greg Ganske and Matt Whittaker mustered in 2002, Owens wanted to take no risks. Many of these Owens backed candidates are negatively viewed by conservative wing as crapitalists and special interest guys, Still, they have been gaining momentum in recent primaries.

Democrats also seem to be risking perfectly good Senate seats. In New Jersey, corrupt congressman Rob Andrews leads by the sheer force of name recognition and the fact that the Democratic field is large. He may get in luck and face Schundler in the general, but likely Zimmer is going to win the Republican nod, and if its a Zimmer-Andrews race, New Jersey may get its second Republican Senator.

Open seats lean Republican, but not all of them. The purest toss-up of all is the Virginia Senate, with the current Governor Tom Davis and the Former Governor Mark Warner battling it out for dominance. This will be the most contentious and negative race of the year, as both are extremely popular Governors.

Primary Polls

Arkansas Republicans
66% Gov. Mike Huckabee
20% Fmr. State Sen. Gunner DeLay

Iowa Republicans
33% Fmr. Rep. Greg Ganske
21% Fmr. Candidate Matt Whittaker
19% Chief of Staff David Young
8% Fmr. State Rep. George Eichhorn

Lousiana Republicans
41% Rep. Rodney Alexander
22% Treasurer John N. Kennedy
14% Sec. of State Jay Dardenne

Michigan Republicans
29% Rep. Pete Hoekstra
24% Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land
23% Rep. Mike Rogers
9% Fmr. Rep. Dick Chrysler

Montana Democrats
39% Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger
29% Fmr. Rep. Pat Williams
12% State Rep. Jon Sesso

New Jersey Democrats
28% Rep. Rob Andrews
16% Rep. Frank Pallone
15% Rep. Bill Pascrell
9% Jersey City Councilor Steve Fulop
8% State Sen. Loretta Weinberg
5% State Sen. Shirley Turner

New Jersey Republicans
49% Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer
32% Fmr. Mayor Bret Schundler

New Mexico Republicans
48% Rep. Heather Wilson
36% Rep. Steve Pearce

Oregon Democrats
39% Sec. of State Bill Bradbury
33% Activist Steve Novick

South Dakota Republicans
36% Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard
23% Att. Gen. Larry Long
10% State Rep. Kristi Noem
11% Others