It will be tight over the summer, but his support of Akin and Mourdock will tank him. Polarization of electorate keeps the map from spilling into LBJ territory.
Obama: 379 ~53% PVHuckabee: 159 ~ 45% PV I admit that Akin and Mourdock is a pretty big thing to overlook, but I did overlook that. Huckabee's original charisma gets torn apart, and that's probably accurate.
However, Biden could attack Ryan because Ryan was chock full of talking points but had no experience or specifics. Grassley could've combated him more on an issues level. I think Grassley would've made it out of the debates alive.