Independents tend to do really well in Alaska, so maybe Gary Johnson in the 5% range... if we're lucky. I could see:
Mitt Romney: 58%
Barack Obama: 35%
Gary Johnson: 5%
Others: 3%
I'm actually surprised that no Libertarian has attempted to base a large camp there and try to make a little bit of national noise with a good showing.
That's one of a couple of areas I'm really disappointed with the Johnson candidacy on. He's still made the Nader mistake of walking into non-Colorado non-Nevada swing states trying to get votes instead of camping out in states no one is paying attention to and building up a real showing, hopefully to have mega-coattails and improve in not-as-libertarian states.