Climate change obviously will have some kind of impact on southern migration, but it's hard to say what exactly, in part because a lot depends on what we do about it. I feel a less confident than most of you all in saying anything decisive.
I also think people think of this in regional terms when that might not be the right unit of analysis. Within the south, there are areas at much greater risk of various climate impacts and areas with lower risk, and there are important cities in each category. The same is true of the Midwest too; Chicago is often touted as a potential climate change metropolis but has worse prospects for
heat and
flooding than a place like Atlanta.
I do think that an underrated factor in all this is the possibility of rising costs of living. Sunbelt growth is predicated in large part on cheap land and cheap labor, but as these cities have become major centers both of those factors tend to go away, and growth tapers somewhat. This is the Los Angeles story of course, but even places like Miami and Atlanta no longer have the white hot growth that they used to.
