Tricia Cotham, NC State Rep., who switched parties to become Republican was a GOP plant

[Sol]

Also interesting to note that her Mother is still an elected Democrat on the Mecklenburg County Commissioners board... Gotta wonder if she's weighed in or what she thinks about her daughters escapades. Can't imagine there's much pride there.

Pat Cotham is a long serving political institution in Mecklenburg County, but is also not particularly left-wing and sometimes can be rather conservative politically.

That makes her sound more ideological than she is; the tl;dr with her is that she's a Democrat because that's the lean of her county and her personal background, but she's primarily motivated by having power rather than any ideology. What fills in the gap is the typical reactionary inclinations of someone of her generational and regional background. Good writeup on her here. It should not come as a surprise that Pat Cotham is behind her daughter.

Her daughter is pretty much cut from the same cloth, except she has a genuine ideological commitment to gutting education.

I think Del Tachi is right in saying that she probably wasn't a GOP plant; she worked with actual Democrats, none of who took her side. You can't lie to people for the length of an entire political campaign who you get to know intimately, unless you're literally some sort of master chess player, which Tricia Cotham is not lol.

But I think it's also pretty clear that Republicans knew that she had certain thumbscrews which could allow them to flip her over in the right circumstances. I'll list them out: #1. she's highly power and status -seeking, #2. prone to seeing the world in terms of enemies and friends, #3. highly motivated to pass pro-charter school policies, and #4. if the gossip is true was/is sleeping with Tim Moore. #3 is already enough for more progressive members to distrust her; not being feted as a mover and shaker within the Democratic caucus upon her return to the legislature appears to have embittered her and activated #1 and #2. And if #4 is true, which was the buzz in the capitol for weeks before her flip, it's only natural that the relationship between her and Democrats would deteriorate.

It's also important to note that there was clearly something "wrong" with Tricia Cotham in the months leading up to her flip -- she wasn't talking to Democrats and was freezing out a lot of her base. If she wants to claim that she flipped because of what Democrats were doing in January or February, it's contravened by the fact that she clearly was already being wooed by Republicans.

Ultimately this was preventable at several stages -- better vetting and frankly more litmus tests are needed. The Cothams in general, especially Pat, had a lot of deep loyalty among Democratic partisans in Mecklenburg County because Pat Cotham has a real knack for retail politics and performative gestures, even as they've been noticeably to the right of most Democrats in the past few years. And Democratic leadership should have made her feel included, even if that meant giving her an allowance to destroy public schools since she's destroying everything else now too.

But this flip is also a pretty harsh indictment of her character. Life in North Carolina is going to be much worse for many people because of what she's done, and for what? Two years chairing the education committee? What a loser.

[Sol]

Honestly, the most hilarious part of this article is how they say that she received a 'standing ovation' from the GOP state convention and is called a 'rockstar' by Republican activists who are going to drop her like a pile of hot garbage the moment she loses her seat and ability to be useful to them as a turncoat.

I feel like maintaining 'rockstar' status among Republican activists, even decades after you did whatever the relevant thing was, is pretty easy. (Also, like, pretty much everyone expects Dan Bishop to retire and run for NC-AG, right? Cotham's positioned pretty nicely for a bid for his House seat in 2024. She lives outside of it theoretically, but like, just outside of it, and it would actually be pretty easy for a Republican remap to draw her into it.)

Well, Cotham is still trumpeting things like medicaid expansion and 'protecting LGB not the T' rights along with a few other more 'progressive' positions that she ran on. As I understand it, while she's absolutely butchering Cooper's veto's on a number of fronts, she isn't just letting the NC GOP go hog wild... So the question becomes 1.) Would Republicans take a chance on a proven turncoat, who is keeping some of her liberal positions, in Congress? Or 2.) Is Cotham willing to absolutely make a 180 on all her positions and tow the party line enough to win a Republican primary? I suppose she's already proven she's a spineless coward, so I suppose it's possible.

This is not actually accurate; like most party switchers she is completely in lockstep with Republicans and will override any veto.

She's only championing medicaid expansion because Republicans agreed to it this session. Republican bills have been more closely focused on torturing trans kids this session, but she will vote to override SB 49 which is North Carolina's xeroxed copy of the original Don't Say Gay bill. And she's pushing an insane and extensive voucher giveaway that's funneling money to private schools that expel gay kids.

[Sol]

As I have pointed out on the other thread about Cotham this is example number zillion of Republicans generally trying to convince others that their ideas are good and right while Democrats don't do this because they don't believe that those who disagree with them are actually being sincere. As a result committed Democrats become committed Republicans three times more frequently than the reverse. This is -- I never tire of pointing this out -- the fundamental reason, per opinion polling, that changing demographics have failed to kill the Republican Party.

Honestly, the most hilarious part of this article is how they say that she received a 'standing ovation' from the GOP state convention and is called a 'rockstar' by Republican activists who are going to drop her like a pile of hot garbage the moment she loses her seat and ability to be useful to them as a turncoat.

I feel like maintaining 'rockstar' status among Republican activists, even decades after you did whatever the relevant thing was, is pretty easy. (Also, like, pretty much everyone expects Dan Bishop to retire and run for NC-AG, right? Cotham's positioned pretty nicely for a bid for his House seat in 2024. She lives outside of it theoretically, but like, just outside of it, and it would actually be pretty easy for a Republican remap to draw her into it.)

I have my doubts Cotham will be running for NC-08 next year. I can't imagine her doing well outside of Mecklenburg County in a primary. Besides the redrawn state house map is expected to have a seat in Matthews and Mint Hill that was evenly split between the two parties and Cotham would likely be encouraged to run for re-election to maximize its chances of going Republican.

Even that seat won't be a cinch for her, since a Matthews-Mint Hill-adjacent Charlotte seat is at best very narrowly Trump 2020, and that's with a pretty ugly gerrymander in a seat which is likely to become much less Republican and white. It's not possible to draw Forest district in this part of Mecklenburg, and she can't carpetbag because NC legislators have to live in their districts.

(Of course, this is assuming Republicans respect the Stephenson precedent, but if they don't she's also quite likely to get a primary challenger from whatever exurbs they dump her with).

I just pointed this out in a different thread, but Tricia Cotham's opponent in any future election is likely to be insanely well funded because she's deeply loathed by Democrats in the state. She's almost guaranteed to be outspent and outvolunteered by whoever her opponent is, and that matters in what at best will be a narrowly Republican seat.

[Sol]

FYI, the Cotham affair with Tim Moore stuff was recently confirmed to me by a friend who's well connected with NC Republicans.