If they split tomorrow? Both blue states anchored around San Francisco and Los Angeles with their own laundry lists of obstacles for Republicans. Population losses would be hitting NorCal much harder proportionally and the current problems in the tech industry wouldn't bode well for its economy, and while SoCal would have and maintain a larger population and a more diversified economy, its per capita personal income and income disparity might look worse. SoCal would inherit the oil and gas industry and Los Angeles' car culture, while NorCal would be freer to pursue an environmentalist agenda. SoCal's five UC and twelve CSU campuses, while prestigious, would struggle being disconnected from the rest of the university system. The North would inherit the Sacramento government, and the more interesting political developments would be in SoCal.
It would be interesting to see how the environmentalist movements in Los Angeles and San Diego would evolve in a hypothetical independent SoCal. I'm guessing the seat of the new state government would be based somewhere in Los Angeles proper?
I actually wouldn't be too surprised to see it end up in Orange County or the Inland Empire, given that peripheral areas of the new SoCal, like Santa Barbara, San Diego, the Imperial Valley, etc. might be a bit unhappy with LA monopolizing the state capitol too.
This was the logic that lead the failed movement to move Alaska's capitol to pick the Mat-Su as its capital, not Anchorage proper.
