This is very cool!
Petty disagreement and nitpicking, apologies.
PA: I think Deluzio probably loses since a better map gives him Butler and much much less of Allegheny.
VA: IMO Virginia is the best map this cycle. The actual result is the ideal ungerrymandered outcome. A world where Luria wins probably means a slightly worse map given the amount she lost by.
NC: Agree with lfromnj here, on a better map Republicans probably net one out of neater lines in the Charlotte area.
TX: I don't have enough time in my life to think over Texas results, but I think you might be underestimating Democratic gains given how well geography works for Texas Democrats. Maybe more like D+4
IN: There are ungerrymandered maps of Indiana where you get an extra Biden seat out of the Northern Indianapolis suburbs, and other ungerrymandered maps of Indiana where you do not. I guess it can replace VA as a mixed/uncertain bag.
IL: Similar deal imo, Democrats get nothing downstate of course but a lot depends on the Chicagoland lines. IMO Democrats probably just lose two but I think there are fair maps where it would be 3.
MI: I think Republicans probably keep MI-03 without Grand Rapids-Muskegon.
OR: There's a shot of Republicans winning DeFazio's seat, though as has been discussed to death a lot depends on how you split Jackson County, which is basically a judgement call.
I think it's basically the same?
