If Indiana Had a Michigan-Style Redistricting Commission... (user search)
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  If Indiana Had a Michigan-Style Redistricting Commission... (search mode)
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Author Topic: If Indiana Had a Michigan-Style Redistricting Commission...  (Read 1025 times)
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,289
Bosnia and Herzegovina


« on: January 16, 2022, 01:23:43 AM »

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?
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Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,289
Bosnia and Herzegovina


« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2022, 01:05:14 PM »

Here's an attempt at Congressional!



link

IN-01 is Likely D (53.5-44.9% Biden) and IN-05 is Tossup, maybe Lean R (50.4-47.5% Biden, but with an insanely Republican voting history.)

Would this IN-05 be the district with strongest swing to Biden in the country (42.6% for HRC)?

I wonder if they work with composite data if they decide to make IN01 less D to make IN02 more D. I could also see a push by certain groups to draw a Lake to Lafayette district and draw a swingy Laporte to Elkhart seat. In Michigan's state house for example there are like 8 narrow Trump districtsi in Downriver/Monroe and Macomb.

Maybe, but the Dem numbers have weakened so much in NW Indiana that I'm not sure if they'd even do that on composite data. LaPorte+St. Joseph+Elkhart is still Republican on composite 2016-2020 data and there are basically no Dem areas to take from nearby except from in IN-01 which can't really spare much.

It's not really too easy to do unfortunately but I actually think some sort of finagling with Bloomington is more likely, if the commission is trying to shoot for proportionality like they did in Michigan.
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