Here's what I think would come from Kansas. There are a lot of things pointing at Incumbent Protection here, or at least some from of mutual cooperation. Dems control the courts. The traditional-radical split in the KS GOP means a low chance of a successful veto override - and that's if Dems don't break the supermajorities in 2020. Watkins wants to lose Douglas.
I think the odds of this are low. As somebody who grew up in Wichita, it makes zero sense to split Harvey or Kingman counties from Sedgwick. While Reno has Hutchinson, Harvey and Kingman are decidedly more in the Wichita bubble. So if you're talking communities of interest, they should be with Sedgwick County.
Well, it is an incumbent protection map first and a COI map second. I bet you can therefore guess why Reno was preferred over Harvey. Harvey almost voted against the GOP in the special, which is ground for it being sunk in the Big First. The 4th should be safe GOP in all circumstances, and since you shouldn't be cutting counties west of Lawrence....
It also voted for Kelly, but tbh that shouldn't be seen a sin. Her win had good geographic spread and it's hard to make KS04 and KS02 into anything more than marginal Kobach wins. Her win will not be replicated in any meaningful capacity, only when the KSGOP screw up their potential future statewide nominees.
I think you're again underrating the importance of quirky local interests. If Kansas' 2010 cycle tells us anything it's that the KSGOP is prone to infighting and will have to appease local concerns. That doesn't mean that they won't cut the counties like that, but not every state map drawers operate with the same careful ruthlessness as far as maximizing partisan advantage goes as you assume.
