2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Sol]

I've been playing around with a Fair Map, and man, gaining a district isn't good for Democrats in that scenario. You basically end up with a 3-3 map, with two of the Republican seats as leaners (though I'm not too clear on the new 6th's politics outside of 2016). Sucks as DeFazio is one of the best members of Congress--don't know how winnable the 6th is for him. I guess I could put Ashland in the 6th instead of Medford area towns, but I don't think Ashland is super well connected to the district.

[Sol]

Shouldn't the mid Willamette valley also have a rep?. Instead you split it here. Anyway the point still stands. This isn't about Oregon has a whole but rather redistricting decisions in general. There is also the argument about roads and how the highways connect Ashland to the east and also compactness.

Yeah. Marion+Linn+Benton+Polk+Lincoln is a compact Trump+2 district, and any fair map has some version of it. However, that basically locks in a 3-1-2 map which OR Dems are never going to go for.

Oh of course, im just speaking theoretically. I fully understand and expect Oregon D's to mildly gerrymander wherever they can. Im just talking in general about a fully non partisan map in Oregon.

Whats your opinion on the Jackson county split I proposed above. Which map would you prefer?

Well, I'm predisposed to favor putting Medford in eastern Oregon on partisanship grounds alone, but Medford/Central Point/White City are also on the main highway connecting Southern and Eastern Oregon whereas Ashland's connection to Klamath Falls is much more tenuous. All this is to say I tentatively favor the Medford in Eastern Oregon map, but I get both sides. Frankly, I think it might be best to move all of Jackson over to Eastern Oregon and put Hood River and The Dalles in with Portland.

Hood River makes some sense, but putting the Dalles is a bit of a bridge too far IMO.

[Sol]

How important of a CoI is coastal Oregon? I'm drawing a map and unsure whether it's better to split the coast (with Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook going into a suburban Portland district) or keep it whole and put it with a Washington County district.

[Sol]

How important of a CoI is coastal Oregon? I'm drawing a map and unsure whether it's better to split the coast (with Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook going into a suburban Portland district) or keep it whole and put it with a Washington County district.

It isn't one. Pair the coast with the I-5 corridor metro it's connected to by highway. Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook with Portland, Lincoln with Benton/Polk, Coos/Curry with Josephine/Douglass.

Yeah Coos/Curry I was planning on putting with Josephine/Douglas for sure, wasn't as sure about the others.

I know there is a mountain range between the Coast and the Willamette Valley, so I'm rather loathe to cross it too often.

[Sol]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

[Sol]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red 3 counties. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

Here's what I've been playing with, though it's not so final or thought out.

[Sol]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

Does Bend really belong with Western Oregon? That seems questionable to me. It may be more similar demographically/politically to some of the West but it's separated by massive mountains and such. Plus Bend isn't actually that much like any place in Western Oregon, except maybe Medford-Ashland.

[Sol]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

[Sol]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

Sorry, I think I misconstrued your initial post--I interpreted "has to" as meaning "it should in a fair map."

[Sol]

Here's your Fair Oregon (link)

[Sol]

The Oregon Supreme Court is all dems anyway.

[Sol]

First in the nation, passing a beautiful fair map that is representative of Oregon voters!

It doesn't get much better than Oregon, folks.

What are you talking about? This map is rotten.

[Sol]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

The issue is extremely strict zoning laws and democrats inability to ever consider housing supply when crafting housing policy .

You say this like Republicans are offering thoughtful reforms to housing and land use law.

There are IMO certain aspects of land use in Oregon which are genuinely revolutionary--thinking in particular of urban growth boundaries, which are really great policy and lay the foundations for excellent transit and high density growth. (And aren't necessarily an issue for affordability if you combine them with thoughtful policy like increased public housing and allowing duplexes, apartment buildings, etc.)