More likely to trend Democratic: Alabama or Oklahoma

[Sol]

The thing about questions like this is that it's actually pretty easy for states to trend to one party or another, and often depends on kind of specific regional and economic issues which are hard to predict.

Alabama could easily trend to the Democrats in an election where the Dem candidate has a strong relationship with the Black community, as occurred in 2012.

Oklahoma could potentially trend Democratic in a Farm Crisis 2.0 situation.

Neither really says much about the long term prognosis for the states' politics.