New Brunswick/Maine strike me as the most similar provinces/states that border each other, followed by BC/Washington.
Alberta: Hard to say. Montana with cities? Some sort of Montana/Wyoming/Colorado/Utah hybrid?
Montana also a stronger history of industrial unionism in the west, more like the Kootenays in BC, that Alberta really lacks.
Saskatchewan: North Dakota. Prairie/Great Plains province/state with a history of progressive populism and now seeing a resource boom.
Manitoba is kind of an oddball. I see the Iowa comparison (surprisingly "progressive" rural state), not the Illinois one. Minnesota is probably the closest as it is both lakey/woodsy with some "prairie" but Manitoba has a more of a Prairie/Plains "essence." Few consider Minnesota a Plains state.
The Dakotas themselves are seen as quite split by the Missouri River - and it's at about the same longitude as the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. However the western Dakotas are very thinly populated.
Would Ontario be considered a Northeastern state if part of the US? Would Saskatchewan be in the "Midwest" with North Dakota and Manitoba or in the "West" with Montana and Alberta?
I suspect that Ontario would be viewed as Midwestern; sometimes people even call the Buffalo area midwestern.