Republicans supposed "disadvantage" in the popular vote is oversold. Any plausible Republican nominee *not named Donald Trump would have won the popular vote against Hillary Clinton in 2016, and said Republican would have probably been reelected (with a popular vote mandate) in 2020.
could be true.
nightmare scenario for dems is that their collapse in the rural areas is due to structural reasons (change in dem party platform, general issues, etc), while the gop collapse in suburbs is largely due to trump's conduct. Nightmare scenario for dems is a 2024 gop nominee maintaining trump margins in the rurals, while swinging burbs 5-10% gop.
Not sure about that senate lockout? They start off down at most 2. Not a ton to worry about in 2022. 2024 will hurt, but a 2026 GOP midterm could have quite a high ceiling if Trump era trends continue.
2022 could be a bloodbath, as Rick Scott is angling for Phil Scott, Adam Kinzinger, Chris Sununu, Doug Ducey, Larry Hogan, Brian Sandoval, and Chris Shays to run for the Senate in their respective states. The Democrats do have a couple of pick up oppritunities that year such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alaska, and (depending on the runoff election results) Georgia, though they still will might end up with a net loss of seats. 2024 is to be expected to be a bloodbath as well and could potentially see a net gain of at least 10 seats for the Republicans.
2026 will likely be a good year for the Democrats in terms of the Senate, but there is not enough seats up that for them to close a 18 seats advantage by the Republicans. If they widdle away at the Republican advantage in each year starting in 2026, they could have a narrow Senate majority by 2032. Maybe even 2034 would be the year of a Senate breakthrough by Democrats at the latest as well.
