How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) (user search)
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  How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) (search mode)
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Author Topic: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better)  (Read 1797 times)
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,791
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

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« on: August 13, 2016, 06:36:15 PM »

Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.
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MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,791
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 06:08:42 AM »

Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states). On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.
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MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,791
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 10:16:38 AM »

Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/


Ted Cruz has a much more consistent record in favor of socially conservative values than Donald Trump. For example, Trump was pro-choice up until a few years ago, has a mixed record on same-sex marriage, only offered lukewarm support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and is opposed to laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. On the other hand, Cruz has been a strong opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage since he first entered into politics, strongly supported the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and strongly supports laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. As a result, I feel that Cruz would have gotten the support of about 80-85% of evangelical voters if he was the Republican nominee as opposed to the 78% of evangelical voters who support Trump.
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