I think you guys are seriously underestimating Cruz. Of all the candidates with a chance, save maybe Paul, he has the most devoted supporters.
He probably won't get the nomination, but yeah he should have some consistent support levels. Maybe 2008 Huckabee would be a good comparison.
That would mean Cruz winning the Iowa caucus, which would be a terrible event in the history of this nation.
My gut feeling is that Scott Walker will end up barely winning the Iowa caucuses, though I do feel that Ted Cruz will end up winning almost all of the Southern states (except Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida and maybe South Carolina) and maybe a few of the Western states in the Republican primaries.