Preliminary 2016 Senate Race Rankings - No Tossups

[MATTROSE94]

My prediction is a net gain of 3-5 seats for the Democrats. I would assume that the Republicans would have an slight opportunity at picking up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats would likewise have an advantage in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In addition, I feel that the Democrats could also have a slight chance at defeating Richard Burr in North Carolina and also at picking up Florida, though only if Marco Rubio either decides not to run for re-election or gets primaried (since Allen West would probably be the Republican Senate nominee then).

A few months ago, I felt that the Democrats would have had a chance at picking up Arizona, Iowa and Missouri, but the Democrats chances at winning those seats have declined in my opinion. The reason why I don't see the Democrats picking up Arizona and Iowa is because both John McCain and Chuck Grassley have all but announced that they are running for re-election in 2016. In addition, I feel that Roy Blunt will be re-elected in Missouri (despite his lackluster approval ratings) due to the fact that Jay Nixon is probably not running (possibly due to fallout over his handling of the Ferguson race riots) and the fact that the Missouri Democratic Party doesn't have that strong of a bench to choose candidates from.

[MATTROSE94]

A few months ago, I felt that the Democrats would have had a chance at picking up Arizona, Iowa and Missouri, but the Democrats chances at winning those seats have declined in my opinion. The reason why I don't see the Democrats picking up Arizona and Iowa is because both John McCain and Chuck Grassley have all but announced that they are running for re-election in 2016.

If anything, a John McCain run against a strong opponent like Synema or Carmona makes it an easier pick up. He's the most unpopular Senator in the country.

Your actually right, as according to several PPP polls, McCain is actually trailing the Democrats.