Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

"No Step Backward. The Last Barrier. Vox"

https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1319301227977580544?s=19

Sorry but this poster has an aged flavor. Spain in Black and White, Civil War, Franco. It scares me

[Velasco]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

[Velasco]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

To be fair, for all their talk about feminism and what not, Podemos is the party with the 2nd lowest percentage of female voters.

Honestly for all the talk about young women being super left wing and what not (whether in Spain or abroad); I honestly just think that men are more "extremist" and women are more moderate in their political leanings; whether on the left or on the right.

I know that Podenios has the second lowest percentage of female vote (it's a bit higher among young women anyway). Women as a whole support traditional parties (PP and PSOE) in a higher degree than men. The PSOE usually appears as the first party in all age groups, except among the women over 65 where the PP is highly competitive.

The PSOE is a party with a feminst tradition and feminist stances anyway. Actually there's a competition between PSOE and UP for the hegemony in the feminist movement. It was not easy for the Deputy PM Carmen Calvo to grant the Equality portfolio to Irene Montero. Both women belong to different branches of the feminist movement and their views are not neccessarily the same. Let's say that Calvo is more a 'traditional' feminist and Montero embraces 'intersectionalism'

[Velasco]

Motion of no confidence fails; in a surprise move, Casado launches a scathing attack on Vox

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-22/voxs-motion-of-no-confidence-fails-securing-only-the-votes-of-its-own-deputies.html

 At the end of a two-day debate, the motion of no-confidence tabled by far-right party Vox failed on Thursday, as was expected. The group only managed to secure the votes of its own deputies in Congress in its bid to oust Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez from power, with all other parties voting against the initiative. A total of 350 votes were cast, with 52 in favor and 298 against.

Party leader Santiago Abascal, who was the candidate to replace Sánchez, thus obtained the worst result ever from the five motions of no confidence that have been debated in Spain’s Congress of Deputies since the country returned to democracy at the end of the 1970s.

Given the extremely high political tensions in Spanish politics since the coronavirus pandemic took hold, the debates on Wednesday and Thursday were surprisingly controlled, albeit reflecting extremely deep rifts between the groups in Congress.

The big surprise of today was the much-anticipated appearance of Popular Party (PP) leader Pablo Casado. After two years of trying to keep Vox in check, Casado definitely broke off with the far-right group on Thursday, launching a scathing attack on its proposals and its leader, Santiago Abascal (...)  

Vox leader didn't expect Casado's attack, admitting on stage that he was "touched" and "perplexed". It was particularly hard for Abascal to hear Casado telling the Vox leader that the PP provided him a paid employment (with public funds) for 15 years. There is a lot of irritation at the Vox HQs, but there's little room for reprisals given that voters would never forgive that Vox hands the governments of Andalusia and Madrid to the left (the only way to sack Ayuso is that Cs makes a move; I don't see it). The rhetorical rupture between PP (the 'father') and Vox (the radical scion) won't turn into a political divorce.

It was nice to imagine how would a civilized PP look like anyway. Casado made a good speech and won the combat against Abascal. Iglesias, Sanchez. Esteban (PNV) and others made good interventions as well and the climate was not as poisonous as I was fearing. For once the cordon sanitaire worked in Spain, but I'm not sure at all this is going to set a precedent

(Btw the sentence in the Vox tweet I shared yesterday is apparently a Bruce Lee quote)

[Velasco]

CEO poll: Parliament of Catalonia

ERC 35/36 seats (23.4%)
JxCAT 31/32 seats (19.4%)
PSC 24/25 seats (18.0%)
Cs 16/17 seats (12.0%)
ECP 8/9 srats (7.6%)
PP 7/8 seats (6.0%)
CUP 6/7 seats (4.9%)
VOX 4/6 seats (4.5%)

ERC and Junts on the brink of majority eithout the CUP. Pro-independence parties wouldn't cross the 50% threshold (other recent polls say they will)

Spain is on rhe brink of another state of alarm. Eight regions, including Catalonia and Basque Country, called the central government to implement that measure. State of alarm is a tool that allows the regions to restrict mobility. It doesn't imply neccessarily lockdowns. Cases are rising everywhere except in the Canaries

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-23/spain-heads-toward-another-state-of-alarm.html

[Velasco]

It's official: we are under state of alarm again

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-25/spanish-prime-minister-approves-new-state-of-alarm-with-plans-to-keep-it-in-place-until-may.html

The Spanish Cabinet on Sunday morning approved a new national state of alarm for the country, aimed at giving Spain’s regional governments the legal framework they need to limit mobility – in particular nighttime socialising – in a bid to combat the second wave of the coronavirus.

 The government is introducing an obligatory curfew for the entire country from 11pm to 6am, with regional premiers having a margin of one hour to bring forward or back the curfew times. They will not, however, be able to scrap the measure altogether.

Regions will also have the possibility of restricting the entrance to and exit from their territories unless this is for essential reasons such as going to work or to get to the doctor. This would allow regions to close their borders should they have a neighboring territory that is particularly hard hit by the virus. This is an idea that had been floated in the past by the regions that border Madrid, but until now was impossible to implement.

The decree will not see the closure of Spain’s borders, as was the case during the first wave of the pandemic. There are also exceptions, with the Canary Islands – the Spanish region that currently has the best coronavirus data – exempted from the nighttime curfew in a bid to aid the tourism sector. The text also limits social meetings between citizens to six people for the entire country.  

[Velasco]

Also haven't said if hike will by the full 4 points as promised or a smaller amount.  C's I believe okay with supporting budget but are opposed to tax hikes, but would reluctantly accept on high incomes if cut for middle class.  So what are thoughts on this.  I doubt it triggers an election, but could be delayed I suppose.

Mmm, no.

"The president of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, has stated that her party defends policies "very different" from those of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and EH Bildu and therefore does not believe that the next General Budgets of the State (PGE) can be approved with the votes of these three formations at once"

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-arrimadas-no-imagina-presupuestos-aprobados-votos-cs-erc-bildu-sanchez-tendra-elegir-20201026114249.html

ERC spokespersons have stated the same about Cs

The issue is that there are two alternative majorities to pass the budget. Both involve the parties that voted "Yes" to the investiture of Sánchez (PSOE, UP, PNV, MP, assorted regionalists). Given these parties fall short, there are two ways to complete a majority or to pass the budget in a second vote. The first way is that ERC -and incidentally EH Bildu- vote "yes" or abstain. Both ERC and Bildu abstained in the investiture, enabling Sánchez to pass in a second vote. The second way is that Cs reaches an agreement with the socialists and supports the budget. Additionally the government could count with four additional votes from the PDeCAT deputies (split from JxCAT), which are open to negotiate with Sánchez (this move alongside the Vox's motion might favor ERC's support)

The different combinations give the government more margin for manoeuvre. It looks rather impossible an agreement involving Cs alongside ERC and Bildu, though

The government will approve the budget draft tomorrow in a cabinet meeting

[Velasco]

Spain planning tax hikes for highest earners as part of expansive budget

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-10-27/spain-planning-tax-hikes-for-highest-earners-as-part-of-expansive-budget.html

 Spain’s governing coalition partners have agreed on a set of tax hikes for high-income individuals and corporations that will affect a small number of taxpayers but which is meant to carry political and symbolic value.

The extra revenue is meant to help fund an ultra-expansive budget to lift Spain out of a deep crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with a special focus on shoring up the healthcare system. The budget plan contains a record public investment of nearly €239.8 billion.

After reaching their own internal deal, the partners in the minority government, led by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the leftist Unidas Podemos, must now seek wider congressional support for their blueprint.

“This is a progressive budget; it is exceptional due to the situation and because of the amount of public investment involved,” said Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE. “The first goal is to rebuild what the crisis took away from us due to the pandemic. The second is to modernize our productive model. And the third is to shore up our welfare state.” (...)  

PSOE and UP have also agreed measures to limit rent prices, as well as measures to fix the problems in the implementation of the Minimum Living  Income (IMV in Spanish).  Very few applicants have received the IMV so far due to bureaucratic problems, which reveal that it's neccessary a public administration reform involving computerization and more funds. New taxes on sugary drinks were announced weeks ago...

[Velasco]

Looks like on tax hike, smaller than initial plan, but my understanding is PSOE wants to postpone tax hikes until economy recovers so if I am not mistaken isn't tax hike on high earners supposed to be larger once economy recovers and this was more just symbolic to get Podemos on side?

Possibly. It's obvious that PSOE and UP had differences and negotiated until they found a common ground. But the parties are not homogeneous blocks and there are differences between cabinet members from the 'socialist side' of the governmebt (PSOE members and independents). Economy and Finance ministers (Nadia Calviño and María Jesús Montero) tend to be more cautious and reluctant with tax hikes and expansive policies, while other cabinet members are sometimes closer to their colleagues from the UP side.

At first sight the policies agreed in the budget plan make less posible a deal with Cs. Even though there's an obvious hostility between Cs and UP, both Pedro Sánchez and Inés Arrimadas have a tactic and strategic interest to leave the door open for negotiations. ERC would be a more fitting option, but there's a political quagmire that complicates everything. Anyway signals point to a relative deescalation of conflicts and political tension at this stage of the pandemic. We'll see

[Velasco]

It's a question of maths: ERC+Bildu have 18 seats and Cs only has 10.  Additionally the former are not compatible with the latter and UP has a strong interest in marginalizing Cs.

The diminished Arrimadas gang is struggling to survive as a centrist party, able to make deals with PP and PSOE. The PSOE and Pedro Sánchez would like to include Cs in the budget negotiation, in order to strengthen the parliamentary majority. Cs could be interesting as a future ally of the socialists, providing the party can survive and they have the mumbers (again). Bildu, ERC and UP don't want that Cs svsurvive for different reasons. Finally, the former leader Albert Rivera made a statement yesterday or the day before, which is a thinly veiled attack to his heir and former deputy leader Inés Arrimadas. Rivera, who is the main culprit for the Cs debacle six months after its heyday, says that there's no dignity in making deals with the Public Enemy Number One, who is Pedro Sánchez. It's been a hard week for Arrimadas

We all know that Bildu is the heir of the political wing of ETA. For sure the Otegi folks need to take more steps away from that past, but EH Bildu it's a legal party because they made the decision to engage in politics discarding the "armed struggle".  A vote for EH Bildu weighs exactly the same as a vote for any other party, including the ideological heirs of the Franco regime. ETA killed 800+ during its 50 years of existence, in the last decades of the Franco dictatorship and the democratic period afterwards. The Franco regime killed tens of hundreds of thousands. Consider that the same people crying it's an outrage to make deals with separatists and heirs of ETA usually remains silent about the deals with Francoists.

[Velasco]

It's important to know that the votes of EH Bildu are not neccessary for a majority. The parties that voted "yes" to the investiture of Sánchez add 167 sests, which is 9 seats short of a majority. The key parties to form a majority are ERC (13} and Cs (10). EH Bildu has only 5 seats and plays a minor role in the parliamentary arithmetic. Possibly the Bildu folks announced their probable support to discourage negotiations with Cs, which is in the UP but not in the PSOE interest. The socialists are not in a position to reject Bildu, which is usually alligned with ERC, but I don't think they were looking after the Otegi bunch

[Velasco]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or sothing like that.

It's not exactly a blank cheque, but it's not that PSOE and UP sold themselves to Otegi. Pablo Iglesias celebrated the Otegi statements, because the Bildu support helps UP to keep Cs out of the deal. I don't know if Bildu and UP negotiated anything (probably not), but Iglesias has good contacts with separatist and nationalist parties and he talks with everybody, with the likely exception of Santiago Abascal

PSOE and GBai form a coalition government in Navarra. They need to negotiate that Bildu votes in favour or abstain, because NA+ is not going to help to pass the budget. That's not strictly necessary in the Congress of Deputies. But again we have a case of double standards. The Spanish Right demonizes the "heirs of ETA" and the " communists*" (saying that Podemos us "populist" and "Bolivarian" is old-fashioned, apparently), while bleaches the Francoist agents of Trump (Casado once said the Vox dudes are "constitutionalists"). I concur that it's positive to normalize Bildu, which has a leftwing platform compatible with other psrties on social and economic issues, regar yo criticize Otegi's ambiguity on other issues related to ETA or the victims (not forgetting on the other side that GAL victims need recognition, too). Anyway there's no big difference between Arnakdi Otegi and Gerry Adams (they are good friends)

* I heard the new PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra arguing that limiting rent prices is a communist measure, so I guess Berlin has gone back behind the Iron Curtain

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias is clearly mocking all his haters in Tweeter; whom apparently use that hashtag. Not a fan of Iglesias wearing his hair in a  bun (moño), but far right trolls are gonna hate regardless his hairstyle

[Velasco]

See, ETA ceased operations in October 2011 and disbanded in May 2018. The terrorist group was DEFEATED by the Spanish democracy, with a very special mention to Interior minister Rubalcaba and PM Zapatero (thank you!). The "heirs of ETA" have engaged in politics; which is another extraordinary achievement of our democratic regime, imperfect but more sólid than many people think. Sortu, the successor of Batasuna and the main party within EH Bildu, is a legal party because its manifesto explicitly rejects violence as a mean to achieve the independence of Euskal Herria. Likewise the "heirs of Franco" are engaged in polítics within PP and Vox; which is also extraordinary

I mean, our current problems arserious and tricky enough to mess around with the shadow of a defunct terrorist group. We must remember our history and honor the victims of Franco or ETA, but EH Bildu, PP and Vox have the right to exist as polítical organizations

ETA was DEFEATED

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias is clearly mocking all his haters in Tweeter; whom apparently use that hashtag. Not a fan of Iglesias wearing his hair in a  bun (moño), but far right trolls are gonna hate regardless his hairstyle

Wasn't his nickname "El Coletas"?

Yes, but recently he has removed his ponytail and wears his hair in a bun. I think the former hairstyle is better

[Velasco]

The last CEO poll for Catalonia was released two days ago

Congress of Deputies (47 seats of 350)

ERC 15 (23.9%), PSC 12/13 (21.7%), JxCAT 7/8 (12.3%), ECP 6 (12 5%), PP 3 (8.4%), VOX 2 (6.7%), CUP 1/2 (5.3%), Cs 1 (4.6%), PDeCAT 0 (1.5%)

Parliament of Catalonia (135 seats)

ERC 36/37 (24.4%), JxCAT 28/30 (18.7%), PSC 22/23 (16.8%), Cs 13/14 (10.0%); PP 8/9 (7.0%), CATCOMU-PODEM  7/9 (7.2%), VOX 7/8 (6.4%), CUP 6/8 (5.3%), PDeCAT 0/1 (2.4%)

Support for independence: Yes 43.6%  No 49%, Undecided 5.8%, Don't Answer 1.8%

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20201120/49552464295/ceo-barometro-erc-ganaria-elecciones-catalanas-independentismo-50-de-votos.html

As for the polítical situación in Spain, it's absurdly complicated as usual. Thankfully there are a few individuals able to decipher it for me. Hats off to máster analyst Enric Juliana


https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20201122/49595535754/gobierno-pactos-iglesias-sanchez-ciudadanos-psoe-podemos.html

[Velasco]

Spanish government secures enough support to have the budget passed

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-11-25/spanish-government-secures-pledge-for-budget-deal-with-catalan-basque-support.html

Spanish executive has secured enough support to get its 2021 budget plan approved in Congress, bringing added stability to the minority center-left government of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos.

 Spain has been functioning since 2018 with a budget that was approved by the previous Popular Party (PP) administration. The country held a snap election in April of last year after parliament voted down an earlier draft, and this was followed by another early election in November. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE is hoping that this new budget deal will see him through the remainder of the political term.

Support is being provided by three regional parties that also backed Sánchez’s return to the prime minister’s office in January of this year. The executive said it has reached a “preliminary deal” with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), and ensured backing from the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Bildu, a far-left Basque party. Together with the governing coalition partners, they represent 179 seats, three more than required for an absolute majority.

The preliminary ideal with ERC incorporates the creation of a "bilateral commission" and a "work group" to develop a fiscal reform and measures of fiscal harmonization between regions, in order to put an end to the Madrid's "tax oasis". Madrid is often accused of tax dumping by other Spanish regions, which deem tax exemptions as unfair competition and lack of solidarity. Madrid's lower taxes might favor the concentration of resources and investment in its region, already favored by the capital estatus, to the detriment of the surrounding regions that are facing increasing depopulation. The PP regional governments have implemented tax cuts since the days of Esperanza Aguirre. Premier Isabel Diaz Ayuso is ready to fight a new battle to defend the "oasis", which is a core value of the rightwing parties in Madrid. Pablo Casado will second her neoliberal crusade, obviously

[Velasco]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

Ironic? This cannot be the first time a Spanish regional party promotes "regionalism for me but not for thee", is it?

Maybe ir seems ironic coming from ERC, but tax dumping affects Catalonia too. On the other hand, fiscal harmonization does not strike as a centralist measure to me. Rather I think federal countries should embarace it and discourage policies that create fiscal imbalances. Moreover, Madrid is the region containing the capital of Spain and should lead by example. But the Madrid regional governments have chosen instead to become a tax haven for millionaires, at the expense of public services (years of budget cuts affect public healthcare in times of pandemic) and the rest of Spain. It's quite ironic and hypocritical to see rightwing leaders in Madrid crying at the lack of solidarity of Catalans and Basques, while taking advantage of dumping practices and the advantages of being the capital.  Some people is beginning to compare the 'rebel' Ayuso with the Catalan separatist leaders, because there's a common ground in what concerns the lack of solidarity and sense of state. If ERC is truly interested in tax reform and harmonization, that's excellent news. I fear the ongoing conflict will benefit Ayuso in Madrid, though. The Spanish Right will claim there's an attack on Madrid based on hatred from Catalonia, as it happened when Health minister Salvador Illa was accused by the PP of hating Madrid when he enforced the state of emergency in the region

[Velasco]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

Ironic? This cannot be the first time a Spanish regional party promotes "regionalism for me but not for thee", is it?

Maybe ir seems ironic coming from ERC, but tax dumping affects Catalonia too. On the other hand, fiscal harmonization does not strike as a centralist measure to me. Rather I think federal countries should embarace it and discourage policies that create fiscal imbalances. Moreover, Madrid is the region containing the capital of Spain and should lead by example. But the Madrid regional governments have chosen instead to become a tax haven for millionaires, at the expense of public services (years of budget cuts affect public healthcare in times of pandemic) and the rest of Spain. It's quite ironic and hypocritical to see rightwing leaders in Madrid crying at the lack of solidarity of Catalans and Basques, while taking advantage of dumping practices and the advantages of being the capital.  Some people is beginning to compare the 'rebel' Ayuso with the Catalan separatist leaders, because there's a common ground in what concerns the lack of solidarity and sense of state. If ERC is truly interested in tax reform and harmonization, that's excellent news. I fear the ongoing conflict will benefit Ayuso in Madrid, though. The Spanish Right will claim there's an attack on Madrid based on hatred from Catalonia, as it happened when Health minister Salvador Illa was accused by the PP of hating Madrid when he enforced the state of emergency in the region

The people of Madrid have voted PP for decades now (Tamayazo not withstanding); on a platform of austerity + tax cuts. I do not agree with that platform, but the people of Madrid have decided that is the model they want for their region. Who is ERC to deny them such privilege?

I am in favour of fiscal balancing, and of rich regions supporting the poorer ones (this is something the EU actually does quite well and that we could pull off nationally too). But this should not be done by the federal government meddling on the affairs of the regions. If the people of Madrid want low taxes and sh*tty healthcare, let them have it. Just likehow Catalonia probably prefers higher taxes and a good safety net.

Bonus points when you consider that the Basque Country has a special tax model that is much closer to "tax dumping" than whatever Madrid does, yet I don't see ERC wanting to abolish it (ftr I do not support abolishing it, but that just adds to the hypocresy)

1) The PP was not the winner of the last regional elecction, it was the PSOE the party with the most votes. However, the parties right of the centre won a majority and they certainly support los taxes. Nevertheless the people of Madrid did not give a clear mandate yo Ayuso: she governs because the "centrist liberals" opted for our kitsch version of Donald Trump instead of the reasonable Ángel Gabilondo. Right now the region of Madrid and the whole Spain could have been governed by a centrist 'social-liberal' coalition. Never forget it was the decision of Albert Rivera, not the will of the people of Madrid

2) I heard Spain is the only European country where income and inheritance taxes are decentralized. There are good reasons yo think that's a mistake. Madrid is a central region containing the capital of Spain, as well a wealthy region that can afford lowering faxes, attracting top earners from elsewhere in Spain. Other regiones lack the resources avalaible in Madrid and cannot afford such low taxes nor compete with the wealthy capital. That's a clear example of tax dumping. Key principales of a federal state should be solidarity and corresponsobility. Fiscal harmonization consists in establishing superior and inferior limits to taxes. That's not meddling un regional affairs, but establishing the game rules. The government has been considering harmonization before the deal with ERC. It's not only Catalonia; Valencia premier Ximo Puig already complained against tax dumping.However, it was a clear mistake on the part of ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián to raise the question of harmonization as a battle against the Madrid's "fiscal oasis". Rufián has made a big favor to Ayuso, who is a big fan of cultural battles. Such conflicts could lead eventually to the failure of reform attempts

3) The Concierto Económico, the tax system ruling un Basque Country and Navarra, is completely unrelated to this question. These regions collect taxes in a different way, but a tax harmonization would affect them regardless. By no means the Concierto Económico is a form of tax dumping: we are talking about tax rates, not about tax systems. As for the solidarity, these regions put money into the joint fund through the "cupo", which is an amount is negotiated with the central government. It's a systems deeply entrenched in the tradition of these regions that works well. It does not neccessarily imply privilege or  lack of solidarity, as some centralist folks claim. Remember that we have in the Canaries another kind of special tax system, too

Spain as a whole has a lot of pending reforms, including administration, tax system and the functioning of the decentralized state

[Velasco]

[

1) I mean, for better or worse Spain is locked into a 2 blocks policy right now; and the right won a comfortable majority in 2019 (they also won the popular vote). You'd have good arguments for 2015 (the right loses the popular vote but gets a majority due to IU falling below the threshold) or 2003 (see: Tamayazo). Of course, that still conveniently forgets about the 2 times the Madrid voters gave PP massive majorities under notoriously right wing premier Esperanza Aguirre (2007 & 2011); or 1995 & 1999 for that matter.

Cs decided to go with a right wing coalition in Madrid and that's their choice. Voters will reward (or punish) them accordingly 4 years from now. But the mandate is certainly there for further tax cuts and what not.

2) I mean, this is an American forum, where even sales tax is decentralized! But the US aren't in Europe so fair point.

I do know Madrid is a rich region and that is why I want strong rebalancing programs to counter that, but taxation should still be quite decentralized (more than now in fact, not less). Madrid, for virtue of being the capital and biggest metropolitan area is always going to be richer than average, but that is not a reason to kill its autonomy? It is a reason for better rebalancing programs, but not for centralism.

3) I used the Concierto as an example where the tax dumping is arguably clearer than in Madrid's case. Madrid at least gives more in taxes than it gets back from the central government. But despite the Basque Country (and Navarra) being 2 of the richest regions in Spain, they also take more in taxes than they give in return!

I also remember some takes about how the concierto allows the 2 regions to change corporation tax, and a lower corporation tax means that companies prefer to operate in Álava than in La Rioja across the border; leading to negative effects on La Rioja's economy.

I do agree on the need for reforms though; as the Catalonia situation shows very clearly. But when 35% of the country wants recentralization and a further 20% wants independence, I think the status quo is likely to stay as a lesser evil.

1) Being locked in leftwing and rightwing blocs is not an inevitability. While the parties right of the centre considered as a block won more votes and seats in the 2019 elections, voters in Madrid did not cast their ballots for specific coalitions; they just determined the composition of the regional assembly.  The election result gave Cs the role of kingmaker. Being allegedly a centrist liberal party, Cs had two choices: a) joining the centre-left party that won a plurality and entering a coalition government led by a prestigious professor and a former Education minister, propoed up by a leftwing democrátic party advocating ecologism and feminism; b) joining the rightwing party that came second with its worst result ever, after many years in government and multiple corruption scandals, led by an unqualified and fanatic scion of Esperanza Aguirre and propoed up by the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro and Franco. Voters have already punished Albert Rivera, who could have been a powerful deputy PM in a government led by Pedro Sánchez but opted for confrontation and sectarianism paving the way for the far right. It seems unlikely that Inés Arrimadas will manage to save Cs despite her efforts

2) Our model in federalism should be Germany and not the USA. Decentralizing income and inheritance taxes fosters inequality and the concentration of wealth in a few areas to the detriment of the rest. The concentration of wealth in Madrid is to the detriment of the rest of the country. The prosperity of Madrid will be sustained on a firmer ground if the other regions can thrive as well, otherwise the capital could be like a disproportionately big head over a weak and feeble body. On the other hand; it's important in times of crisis that the rich pay taxes and the policies of the Madrid regional government alongside the imperfect Spanish tax system give too much advantages to the top earners.  That's unfair and must be reformed

3) Tax rates and fiscal balances are different issues. Madrid, -alongside Catalonia, Valencia and the Balearic Islands- pays a higher amount in taxes than the investment received in return, while Andalusia and other poor regions receive more than they pay. Basque Country and Navarra receive apparently slightly more, which is an advantage considering they are wealthier than average. Valencia is regarded the least favored region by the current financing system and its regional government has comisioned studies analyzing the impact of the Madrid's"tax oadis" un the rest of Spain. The question is to prevent the excessive concentration of wealth and the subsequent territorial imbalances; that's the reason why tax harmonization is neccessary and the rich folks in Madrid should pay more taxes. The amount that Basque Country and Navarra put into the joint fund can be negotiated, eventually

[Velasco]

Voters had very little reasons to fear a PSOE-Cs deal after the November 2019 elections, given that Albert Rivera made clear that Pedro Sánchez was the Public Enemy Number One. How can you think that Rivera is going to join the leader of "La Banda" when he refuses to have a courtesy meeting with him at La Moncloa (even Pablo Casado went there when Sánchez invited him, for God's sake!)

The reasons for the success in April 2019 are related to the disintegration of the PP after the Gurtel ruling and the success of the no-confidence motion, in addition to the weak leadership of Pablo Casado. Rivera almost became the leader of the Spanish Right, falling short by some 300k votes. However, that result might seem underwhelming considering that Cs led some national polls at the peak of the Catalan conflict. The picture of the three leaders of the Right at Colón Square led Sánchez to call elections and helped the socialists to succeed.

There are several post-election analyses on vote transfers. Acording to Sociométrica 19% of the Cs voters switched ro  PP in November, 20% to Vox, 4% to PSOE and 30% didn't show up. Figures vary slightly depending on the pollster, but not so much

The PP regained nearly 1 million voters from Cs. In all likelihood former PP voters coming back. Remember that the campaign of Pablo Casado had a slightly more moderate tone. That helped to regain those voters, but also favored transfers to VOX in  the polarized environment of those days (and Rivera contributed a lot in that). The gains from Cs were higher than the losses VOX, so the PP improved slightly its disastrous April result

Some 400k switched from Cs to VOX. In all likelihood these voters are more nationalist or centralist and contrary to peripheral nationalists and separatists

Some 250k switched from CS to PSOE, much les than stratehists at La Moncloa were hoping to catch

More than 1 million didn't show up and stayed at home. Analysts think these voters are mostly centrists disappointed by polarization. Centrist voters are more volatile and prone to stay at home than voters places closer to the extremes

In my opinion, the strategy of polarization followed by Rivera was a big failure that provoked: a) his own polítical demise in poly 6 months; b) the radicalization of the rightwing bloc with the rise the far right

Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle are guilty for that electoral repetition that nobody wanted, but certainly Rivera's intransigence paved the way for the likes of Trump in Spain. On the other hand, I never believed Rivera was a centrist

[Velasco]

"American-style libertarianism comes to Spain"

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-11-27/american-style-libertarianism-comes-to-spain.html

The restrictions applied by governments around the world to address the coronavirus pandemic have triggered ubiquitous popular protests. In Spain, the first ones began on May 10, on Núñez de Balboa street, in the upscale Salamanca district of Madrid.

Others have since followed, besides those staged by professional sectors; there have been protests by the extreme right, by coronavirus deniers and even by vandals, not to mention the marches organized specifically by the far-right party Vox. What they all have in common is the word “freedom” in their slogans. The concept is striking – it clashes with defending the general public interest with regard to controlling the virus. It is also an exotic concept within the Spanish political scene, which is unaccustomed to the extreme demand for individual freedom that holds such sway in the US.

is a concept has been incorporated into the general discourse adopted by the Spanish opposition, which has for months been accusing the center-left government of taking advantage of the pandemic to establish something akin to an authoritarian regime (...)
  

As certain polítical analyst said recently, Spain could be a funny place if we forget the coronavirus crisis. We have the Catalan separatists advocating tax harmonization (the idea is not theirs: socialists Ximo Puig and Susana Diaz taised the question previously), Spanish unitarians advocating tax decentralization and the heirs of Franco crying "freedom"

[Velasco]

Minister asks for probe of online chat where ex-army officials discuss ‘executing 26 million Spaniards (that is to say all the eligible citizens not voting for the right)

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/spains-defense-minister-asks-for-probe-of-online-chat-where-ex-army-officials-discuss-executing-26-million-spaniards.html

 Spain’s Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, has sent prosecutors at the Madrid regional High Court information about a WhatsApp chat group in which retired military officials appear to show support for military uprisings and mass executions.

Robles is asking prosecutors to determine whether the messages exchanged by members of the 19th graduating class of the Air Force Academy constitute a crime “by individuals who additionally may have posed as members of the military in active duty service without being so,” said ministry sources.

The minister’s request is backed by information published on Wednesday by the online daily Infolibre, which reported two messages in the private chat group as stating the following: “There is no other choice but to start executing 26 million sons-of-bitches,” and: “What a pity not to be in active duty service in order to reroute a hot flight [carrying real ammunition] from Bárdenas [firing range] to the headquarters of those sons-of-bitches,” alluding to the separatist organization Catalan National Assembly (ANC), which played a leading role in the 2017 attempt at the Catalonia region’s unilateral secession from Spain. These two quotes have been attributed to Division General Francisco Beca Casanova and to Colonel Andrés González Espinar, respectively (...)
 

VOX MP Macarena Olona said in Congress that "of course" these retired army officers -whom also sent a letter to King Felipe warning about the dangers of the "social-communist" government- are "our people", in case anyone has doubts conceening the undemocratic nature of the far-right party

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-12-02/vox-sobre-la-carta-de-los-exmilitares-al-rey-por-supuesto-que-es-nuestra-gente.html


In other news, the Supreme Court revoked yhe one prison regime granted to the Catalan separatist leaders

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/supreme-court-revokes-open-prison-regime-granted-to-jailed-catalan-separatist leaders


https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/supreme-court-revokes-open-prison-regime-granted-to-jailed-catalan-separatist-leaders.html

Catalan separatist leaders who were convicted for their role in the 2017 unilateral breakaway attempt will remain in prison after the Spanish Supreme Court revoked the open regime granted to them by the Catalan government. That move had been appealed and was pending a decision by the court..

Supreme Court justices said it is “premature” for the prisoners to be moved to a flexible regime, and that more time needs to elapse in order to assess the inmates’ progress, especially in light of the fact that they have served less than half of their prison terms.

The alternatives for the jailed politicians are either pardon from the government or a reform of the penal code abolishing the obsolete charge of sedition

[Velasco]

Deputy premier Pere Aragonès signed yesterday the decree calling elections in Catalonia on February14 next year

Leading Candidates

Cs: Carlos Carrizosa, the spokesman in the Catalan Parliament replacing the candidate-elect Lorena Roldan (who was intended to be the replacement of Inés Arrimadas) as a measure of damage control. Bad prospects for the oranges in this election.


ERC: Pere Aragonès, deputy premier until premier Quim Torra was disqualified from office. "Interim premier" since then. Backed by party leader Oriol Junqueras, who is in jail since 2017. ERC is leading in the polls.

JUNTS: Laura Borràs, member of the Spanish Congress and minister of Culture in the regional government. Party leader is former premier Carles Puigdemont, who lives in Waterloo (Belgium) since 2017 in a self imposed exile. Puigdemont announced he will the head of the Barcelona list, but not the candidate

PSC-PSOE: Salvador Illa. The candidacy of the Health minister and PSC's second-in-command was announced by the end of 2020. Illa replaces the veteran secretary general Miquel Iceta,un an attempt to take advantage of Illa's high visibility during the pandemic to mobilize voters and boost the PSC chances

CATCOMU-PODEM: Jessica Albiach, the leader of the Catalan branch of Podemos. Not good prospects given that the natural leader of the  'comuns' ("commons") and Barcelona mayor Ada Colau is not at her best moment

CUP-Guanyem: Dolors Sabater, a fomer Badalona mayor and leader of Guanyem Catalunya with a profile higher than the people placed on top by the CUP in previous elections

PP: Alejandro Fernández, replacing Badalona mayor and 2017 candidate Xavier García Albiol. The contest between Cs, PP and Vox in Catalonia could be tight and it will have repercusions at national level. The PP hired the former Cs candidate Lorena Roldan, a surprise move announced the same day it was known that Salvador Illa would be the PSC candidate

PDeCAT: Angels Chacón, a former member of the regional government who was fired by Quim Torra after the split between JxCAT (Junts) and PDeCAT. The heir of Convergencia will struggle to win seats

VOX: ignacio Garriga, whom intervened briefly in the debate of the Vox's no confidence motion introducing Santiago Abascal. VOX will win seats in all likelihood according to polls

PNC: Marta Pascal, former coordinator of the PDeCAT whom played a key role in the success of the no confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy in 2018 and was fired by Carles Puigdemont afterwards. It'd be a surprise that Pascal enters in the next parliament, despite she is regarded a brave and valuable polítician by some people (mostly non-separatist). Pragmatic centre-right sovereigntism appears weak and divided

[Velasco]

Last CEO poll (total;135 seats)

ERC 35 (23.0%)
JxCAT 30-32 (19.6%)
PSC 25 (18.5%)
Cs 14-16 (11 6%)
CUP 8-9 (6 4%)
CatComu 7-9 (6.9%)
PP 7-9 (6.0%)
Vox 4-6 (4.6%)
PDeCAT 0-1 (1.9%)