Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine

[Velasco]

Thank you, Velasco and tack50! Very interesting informations.

And again I'm trying to generalize: Spanish inner-cities in a wider sense (including the 19th century expansions) are usually quite conservative, at least seen as a whole. But there can be areas that have a strong alternative left (Podemos or similar, not PSOE) and these areas are often the historical city centers or parts thereof, or former inner-city poor-people quarters.

Pretty much. Barri Gotic in Barcelona and Lavapies in Madrid fall clearly in the last typology. El Arenal in downtown Sevilla is very posh, the kind of place in the city where the archetypal Andslusian señorito can live. I guess the neighbourhoods in central Sevilla that voted for AA fall in the typology of working class inner-city neighbourhoods as well.

[Velasco]

Some of the maps in the previous post are mine

Oh, I didn't know that! Great maps!

Go back in this thread and you'll find maps of the 2015 elections (local, regional and general). There are several city maps at district level

[Velasco]

Troubled anniversary

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/06/inenglish/1544084057_287552.html

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[Velasco]

Historical results by municipality are easily available at infoelectoral. The Ministry of the Interior collects data for general, local, EP elections and referenda. Infoelectoral has results at municipal district level, but only for a few major cities: Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga and Bilbao

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/

Results of regional elections at constituency and municipal level are available at the websites of the different regional governments.

The websites of some city councils such as Madrid and Barcelona have results at neighbourhood level (subdivision of the municipal district) for local, regional or general elections. This information is not available in all the major municipalities.

Finally there's  data at precinct level available in Excels

[Velasco]

Vote transfers according to Sigma Dos

Vox catches from:PP 178000, Cs 58000, Abstention 39000, Others 33000, Podemos 28000, PSOE 26000, IU 5000
Cs catches from: PP 178000, Abstention 103000, PSOE 99000, Others 35000, Podemos 7000, IU 7000
Abstention catches from: Podemos 298000, PSOE 254000, IU 115000, PP 39000, Others 29000, Cs 27000

I read yesterday some analysis on strong Vox precincts in El Mundo that I'm not able to find now. In short: half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% of the vote are located in Almería province, namely in the Poniente region also known as " The Plastic Sea" because of the extensive greenhouses (El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar...). The other half is located elsewhere and correspond to wealthy inner city neighbourhoods (such as Los Remedios and El Arenal in Sevilla) or affluent suburbs ("villa with swimming pool" typology)  in the periphery of towns and cities. Vox received less support in working class areas, but this doesn't imply they performed bad. Important: there is no correlation between high proportion of immigrants and strong support for Vox outside Almeria province.

[Velasco]

Fragmentation of the vote for Vox: from the greenhouses to the high level developments

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/12/08/5c0ac8e121efa09c2f8b45f9.html

Vox received more than 20% of the vote in a total of 316 precincts or census sections.

Vox succeeds in the coast of Almeria province ("Sea of Plastic"). In Sevilla, Córdoba, Algeciras or Puerto de Santa María the Vox strongholds are located in high end developments with detached houses and swimming pools.

Vox leader Santiago Abascal told to the ABC newspaper they got an "excellent result" in Las Tres Mil Viviendas of Sevilla, a low income neighbourhood with areas of high social deprivation and insecurity. The claim is false, since the support for Vox in the area is always below 10%, in contrast to nearly 30% support in nearby affluent neighbourhoods to the south of Sevilla. A look at this map of results by precinct confirms that: in the poor sections of southern Sevilla known as Las Tres Mil Viviendas (Barriada Murillo, Las Letanías) PSOE comes first and AA is the second party with turnout always below 50%.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

There are 62 precincts in the city of Sevilla where Vox gets more than 20%, located in affluent neighbourhoods belonging to Los Remedios, Palmera-Bellavista and Casco Antiguo (the historic centre). Significant features of these neighbourhoods are: low foreign population (roughly 3%) and high turnout (around 75%). Similarly the places in Córdoba where Vox gets more support are the historic centre and the high end residential developments north of the city such as El Brillante and El Naranjo, neighbourhoods with a strong support for PP and Cs as well. Average income in the Vox strongholds of Córdoba and Sevilla is well above average.

There are other Vox strongholds located in coastal municipalities of the Málaga province and in the Bay of Algeciras ("Bay of Gibraltar" for the Brits). Suburban coastal villa developments in the periphery of Algeciras and Puerto de Santa María record 20% to 25% vote for Vox. Similar results can be found in isolated developments near to golf resorts located in Marbella, Mijas or Benalmádena (coast of Málaga).

Half of the precincts where Vox gets more than 20% are in Almería province. They are in areas of El Ejido, Roquetas de Mar, Almería, Adra, Vicar and Níjar. These locations are within the extensive greenhouse network known as the "Sea of Plastic". The economy of this region is highly reliant on irrigated greenhouse crops and the workforce is immigrant. The proportion of foreign population in municipalities like El Ejido (Vox came first getting 29.5%) is above 30%.

As said in the previous post, there is no correlation between vote for Vox and high proportion of foreignpopulation outside Almeria province.

In the 316 precincts where Vox gets more than 20% all parties lose support except Ciudadanos.

This analysis in El Mundo features some maps and graphs.

[Velasco]

Geroa Bai is a coalition acting in Navarre including PNV, Zabaltzen and Atarrabia Taldea. The two latter are centre-left or left-wing Basque nationalist parties. The leader of Zabaltzen is premier Uxue Barkos, who is the most important and charismatic figure of Geroa Bai. I would challenge the notion of GBai as the brand of PNV in Navarre,  since this party never had electoral success in the region running in its own. Batasuna, EA or Aralar (currently part of EH Bildu) were more relevant in Navarre than PNV. I think GBai represents a more moderate version of Basque nationalism than EH Bildu and its success relies in good measure on Uxue Barkos.

I suspect that the role of Cs in the ongoing negotiation yo conform the Abdalusian government will be a source of amusement. Oranges are already having a hard time trying to deny the obvious: PP and Cs need the support of the far right to govern. This is not a major problem for the PP, apparently. Vox leaders say they don't want posts in government,  but they want to be heard and their vote is not for free. It seems that Vox won't tolerate to be ignored by Cs. I wonder what are going to do Manuel Valls or Guy Verhofstadt  

Are PP, Cs and Vox conforming an informal right wing nationalist block playing the music of José Maria Aznar, as some analysts suggest?

[Velasco]

New left wing party with former judge Baltasar Garzón and former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares as main figures could contest next EP, regional and local elections. The party is created from a platform of IU critics and left-wing disenchanted called Actúa ("Act")

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181215/453558362197/llamazares-garzon-actua-nueva-formacion-elecciones.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_content=politica&utm_campaign=lv&fbclid=IwAR1bYTFgysHjmgoqKdqc45Q71alKOEzofQ6Bzmo09jSFcO2S0hp9Jy_5Ryw

Former IU leaders Gaspar Llamazares and Cayo Lara, the IU mayor of Zamora and other critics signed a document criticizing IU and Podemos leaderships shortly after the Andalusian elections. They accused Alberto Garzón and Pablo Iglesias of having more interest in surpassing PSOE as the main force in the left than building a progressive majority.

[Velasco]

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Personally I'm rather sceptic about the electoral viability of this party. I admit that I was totally wrong about the impact of Vox (it was a last minute surge in good measure). Back in the day very few predicted the impact of Podemos in the 2014 EP rlections. Said this, I think that people like Llamazares or the former judge Garzón can hardly represent a fresh alternative. I think that Gaspar Llamazares is not a bad guy, but... Anyway winning seats in the EP parliament is relatively easy due to the proportional system, or having some councilors or even members of regional parliaments (Llamazares was the IU candidate in Asturias). These guys are affiliated to the European 'party' launched by Yannis Varoufakis.

This project is a symptom of dissension in the left (nothing new), but not all if the IU and Podemos critics will join Actúa.  For instance Iñigo Errejon, the leader of a faction in Podemos and candidate in the region of Madrid. He says openly that his vision and strategy are different from those of Pablo Iglesias,  but he is one of the founders of Podemos and won't leave. Errejon advocates to dispute the idea of Spain and the national emblems to the right. This doesn't imply mimicking the Vox jingoism as the PP does, but proposing another concept of patriotism and giving people some certainties...

https://ctxt.es/es/20181212/Politica/23449/íñigo-Errejón-entrevista-Comunidad-de-Madrid-pacto-Gabilondo-símbolos-nacionales.htm

Errejon thinks that creating "anti-fascist" fronts is not a good strategy to counter the rise of the far right, because Vox is the symptom and not the illness. I tend to agree with this point of view.

On the opposite side, veteran IU leaders Julio Anguita and Manolo Monereo (currently Podemos deputy and very influential for Pablo Iglesias) say that the success of Salvini in Italy is due to the failure of the left and even praise his "social policies",  as well as his defence of  "popular sovereignty" and "national independence". In my opinion this is going way too far (I don't think Pablo Iglesias sanctions this point of view, thankfully)...

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and the Catalan premier Quim Torra are meeting in Barcelona right now.

Tomorrow Pedro Sánchez will chair a meeting of the Council of Ministers, while pro-independence activists will protest in the streets.  The cabinet meeting in Barcelona was scheduled months ago. However recent developments contributed to escalate tension, particularly some ststements made by premier Torra about the "Slovenian path to independence". There was fear of violent incidents at protests tomorrow leading to an abrupt end of the legislature. There have been calls to calm the situation. The meeting between Sánchez and Torra might be a step in deescalation...

Meanwhile, the jailed Catalan leaders on hunger strike cakked off

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/20/inenglish/1545305359_830896.html

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A group of Catalan politicians including fuve former premiers released yesterday an open letter calling the men to cease the protest, in order to protect their lives and health; ensuring their "optimum participation" in the ongoing trials and in the future of the country.

[Velasco]

The cabinet meeting was regarded "positive" despite protests and road blocks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/21/inenglish/1545412397_365710.html

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PP, Cs and Madrid conservative media have a radically different narrative. Any attempt of dialogue is described as treason, surrender or "humiliation". The Spanish Right is currently split in three parties. They have in common a tough stance against separatists. They also have in common the influence of former PM José María Aznar, who is very clear in what regards the "secessionist challenge". PP and Cs want the immediate implementation of article 155 (direct rule, suspension of regional autonomy) for an indefinite period. Some people think the constitutionality of such a drastic measure is dubious. Other people think that implementing article 155 without a clear reason, aside "the complete defeat of separatism" (Vox), would represent a democratic involution. No dialogue. No surrender. Ulster.

[Velasco]

Euskobarometro poll for the Basque Parliament

EAJ-PNV 38.3% 31 seats (+3)
EH Bildu 23.1% 18 seats (=)
PSE-EE  13.5% 11 seats (+2)
Elkarrekin Podemos 10 3%  7 seats (-4)
PP 8.2% 7 seats (-2)
Cs 3% 1 seat (+1)

Sample size: 1200
Fieldwork: October 15 to November 9

[Velasco]

PP and Cs closed a deal on Wednesday to take control of the speaker's committee in the Andalusian parliament. as well as they sealed a 90 point deal with measures to govern the southern region. As a result, Juan Manuel Moreno (PP) is the likely next premier while Marta Bosquet (Cs) is the new speaker with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. The far-right party is demanding to negotiate the points of the deal between PP and Cs in order to vote the Moreno's investiture, while the oranges oppose to any modification. Anyway I suspect they are acting.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/12/27/inenglish/1545899006_561835.html

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The bolded sentence is not totally correct. A far-right party called Fuerza Nueva (FN) led by a certain Blas Piñar won a seat in the 1979 general elections. There are differences between FN and Vox. The latter was the party of the hardcore Francoists (they were called "the bunker"), while the Manuel Fraga's AP (currently PP) represented by that time a conservative vote ("sociological Francoism") somewhat nostalgic of the old regime but seeking to adapt to the new times. Vox is a radical split of PP which advocates a extremely tough stance on the territorial crisis and with strong affinity with the French FN (currently RN) on immigration and islamophobia, but not on economics (FN/RN is protectionist and Vox neoliberal). In all likelihood there is some Franco nostalgia in Vox (a candidate for Málaga told a journalist that Franco's regime was not a dictatorship), but obviously the Vox phenomenon doesn't rely on them.

[Velasco]

I must say, it is rather interesting how Franco didn't manage to hold onto significant popular support after death, and how much openly Francoist parties failed despite the survival of some vague notions of sociological Francoism in AP/PP. There's plently of examples of post-dictatorship democracies in which parties nostalgical of a given regime, its leader or his policies have managed to survive and even garner significant support, and it's fascinating to see Spain fully reversed that potential trend.

Possibly this is related to the particular circumstances of that historical period, after the death of Franco. On the one hand there is the trauma of the Spanish Civil War and the fear of another conflict, which was shared by people on the left and the right. On the other hand, there was a huge thirst of modernity in Spain that became increasingly evident in the 60s and the 70s. I guess both factors favoured the reformist elements of the regime (Afolfo Suárez and part of the UCD leadership), as well as favoured pact over rupture on the left. As for the second factor, modernity was associated with democracy and EU integration (this explains why Spain is still comparatively more pro EU than other countries). There was a strong "sociological Francoism", but a majority of these conservative elements was in favour of a "controlled" transition. The violent far right elements were a minority, but they were quite visible (Atocha killing in 1977, coup attempt in 1981). Only the collapse of the UCD allowed Manuel Fraga to become the leader of the opposition in 1982, but he was unable to break the so called 'Fraga's ceiling' due to his close association to the old regime. Fraga had to give way to a younger generation and retreat to his stronghold in Galicia...

[Velasco]

José Maria Ruiz Mateos and Jesús Gil were clearly right wing populists. I think that Ruiz Mateos was a staunch social conservative, while the populist stances of Jesús Gil on law and order (probably on immigration too) were very close to Vox.  These populist figures may appeal the same kind of angry conservative voters than Vox. Probably the difference between them is that Vox is more "ideological" and more vocal on certain issues.

[Velasco]

I always viewed Jesus Gil as a more Berlusconian figure than a true hard rightist. (Actually, it's worth asking: did Marbella have a decent Vox vote?)

Possibly Gil was more close to Berlusconi than to Salvini. I meant that Jesus Gil was a right wing populist with tough stances on law snd order. As pointed in the previous post, the GIL party was particularly succesful in Ceuta and Melilla. Both places are Spanish outposts in Morocco with strong Muslim populations. They sre PP strongholds and presumably breeding grounds for parties like Vox.

As for the Marbella municipality, results were as follows:

PSOE 24%, PP 22.8%, Cs 21.1%, Vox 13.3%, AA 12.6%, PACMA 2.4%

The PSOE plurality may be misleading. Marbella and the municipalities in the coast of Málaga province (Costa del Sol) lean to the right. PP came first in previous elections. This time the fragmentation of the right allowed that socialists are ahead despite heavy loses. The three parties on the right are all above avearage with an aggregate 57.2%, while PSOE and AA are below average with an aggregate 36.6%. Possibly the Vox results at precinct level are interesting to watch, especially in high income developments close to golf courses...

I linked a map of results by precinct in a previous page

[Velasco]

That poll points out a terrible possibility. I'm certain that a PP-Cs government propped up by Vox (with José Maria Aznar as grey eminence) means going back in fundamental rights, a regressive social agenda, neoliberal economics and the re-centralization of the state. The attempt to solve the crisis in Catalonia through the indefinite implementation of direct rule (via article 155) means the £mposition of a state of exception. That move would suppose rising tension and unrest, as well as fuelling separatism. In other words: right wing nationalism means democratic involution. Hard times are coming.

A coalition between the socialists and the orange populists would be less terrible,  but we are not even cose to that posdibility at this moment. The new year will be turbulent, that's for sure.

[Velasco]

I think it's quite irrelevant which European group will join Vox. I'd say that in all likelihood it will be far right and eurosceptic.

More interesting is the Vox blackmail to PP and Cs in Andalusia. In order to vote the investiture of PP candidate Juan Manuel Moreno, the far right party demands that blues and oranges remove public funds to support measures against gender based violence. They are included in the 90 point deal signed by PP and Cs. Vox is not willing to vote funds to protect women, because gender based violence is an invention of feminazis in the particular cosmovision of the far right party (Bolsonaro would support this). PP and Cs spokepersons rejected the Vox demands with varying degrees of firmness. However, Vox is crystal water here: if PP and Cs want to fight gender vased violence, they can negotiate with PSOE and AA. Either Vox or PP and Cs will have to give in, otherwise the investiture fails and Andalusia goes to a repetition of elections...

[Velasco]

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.

The regional government can't reverse the devolution of education, justice or healthcare. Another question is that a right wing nationalist government takes office after the next general elections. Then the new cabinet (led by Casado or Rivera) implements the state of emergency on Catalonia (article 155) and undertakes the re-centralization of Spain. The hypothetical right wing government would be  coalition of two parties (PP and Cs) propped up by a third party (Vox) that pushes further to the right. However the complete dismantling of regional autonomy is not possible without a constitutional reform and there's no quorum, so regional autonomy would be diminished but not abolished as Vox advocates. Vox also wanted to close the Andalusian TV and radio broadcaster, but Santiago Abascal and friends realized that it's necessary to reform the statute of autonomy and downgraded the demand to severe spending cuts. The belligerent attitude of Vox towards gender violence policies is not surprising at all, because the repeal of legislation was one of the main campaign banners. Back in the day PP voted to pass the law against gender violence and Cs receded due to heavy criticism during the 2015 campaign. Even though PP and Cs are not sympathetic towards feminists, they can't repeal legislation without paying a price because concern on gender based violence is widespread in society. On the other hand, there are more subtle ways to boycott a legislation than those advocated by Vox. For instance, the Rajoy administration lowered the funds drastically. However, the deal between PP and Cs says that measures against gender based violence will have adequate funds. The radical male chauvinists at Vox can't stand this.

[Velasco]

The agreement between PP and Vox is not surprising at all. Vox came out with an extremist 19 point proposal in order to create a shock and get media attention (that's the Steve Bannon's handbook). PP claims Vox demands are "unacceptable", but it doesn't leave the table. Subsequently Vox gives up some of the most unrealistic and extravagant demands (repeal legislation against gender based violence, expel 52000 illegal immigrants) and both parties reach an agreement whitewashing part of the far right agenda. On the other hand, Cs rejects to negotiate with Vox and claims the separate agreement between PP and the far right is a "paper tiger". Vox leader Santiago Abascal mocks the oranges in Twitter calling them a "French party" pledging allegiance to Emperor Macron. Etcetera.

All these moves are largely tinkering.  Pure theater. The deal between the three parties on the right was never in peril. Andalusia is a huge haul and the cordon sanitaire was never on the table.  The Spanish Trumpists will condition the policies of the new Andalusian government because their 12 votes are neccesary to pass legislation.

The editor of eldiario.es Ignacio Escolar analyzed the small print of the agreement between PP and Vox (Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/letra-pequena-acuerdo-PP-Vox_6_855724436.html

[Velasco]

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

[Velasco]

I think electomania is not a pollster, neither "traditional" nor anything else. I remember years ago that site was a place where election junkies, partisan hacks and some trolls discussed the polls released in Spain (and sometimes international polls, too). I don't know which "methodology" they use (average predictions made by members, pethaps?), but in any case they are not professionals. Maybe they are good making predictions or they are occasionally spotted on, maybe they have access to data from actual pollsters during the last week ban. I don't know. Just saying that it's important to make the distinction between polls and predictions regardless "methodology" (average polling, intuition or whatever). I know that GAD3 (an actial pollster) was working during the last days of the Andalusian campaign and recorded the Vox surge.

The fight for women's rights is going to be very important in the following months, since Vox has made anti-feminism one of its main battle horses. Like it or not, the feminist movement is one of the most important vectors of democracy in the present time.

[Velasco]

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.

This is the beginning of a new era. It's a tragedy that change in Andalusia comes together the influence of the xenophobic and misogynist Vox. The deal between PP, Cs and the far right was not the only alternative. It's also a shame that career politician Susana Diaz has not resigned yet, as she is the main obstacle to a much needed renewal of the Andalusian PSOE. As for the fake liberals led by Albert Rivera, the opportunistic nature of Cs is portrayed by its association to the likes of Le Pen (take due note of your allies, Beautiful Flawless Macron).

The English version of El País says that Vox made its "maiden speech" yesterday at regional parliament. Isn't it amusing the use of the word "maiden" given the vocal anti-feminism of said party? The amusement, however, ends abruptly when you read the quotes of Francisco Serrano

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/16/inenglish/1547639931_037405.html

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[Velasco]

The CIS is still good collecting data, regardless the questionable methodology of the vote estimations. Pedro Sánchez made a mistake appointing his close friend Félix Tezanos as the CIS chief pollster. Tezanos is qualified as he is sociologist, but he is also a partisan hack and is destroying the credibility of the sociological institute. In any case the raw data is as good as always and I do give credibility to those figures.  Supporters of re-centralization (either unitary state or less devolution) are increasing and the trend is not new.

As for the Vox proposal to abolish regional autonomy, as said before it's unworkable due to lack of quorum for constitutional reform. However PP is adbovating the re-devolution to central government of healthcare, education and justice (the first step towards the unitary state in the Vox handbook). Cs likely would support re-devolution, so it's possible that a nationalist right wing government will cut devolved powers and regional autonomy. Maybe Aznar or the right wing parties have spme plan already (for sure they have re-devolution mind). PNV is particularly scared with the prospect of a central administration attacking the special tax system of the Basque Country. That's ine of the reasons why the Basque Nationalist Party tried unsuccessfully to moderate Catalan separatists and prevent that Puigdemont was doing stupid things.