Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Whatever happened to Catalan Solidarity for Independence?

That party is virtually disappeared, since its main leaders -namely Jordi Laporta and Alfons López Tena- quitted politics. Anyway, the party supports the Together for Yes alliance. According to the SI website, party membership voted recently on endorsing the pro-independence joint ticket and 85% said "Yes".

[Velasco]

Would I be mistaken in assuming the name of the Podemos electoral alliance was deliberately chosen to confuse pro-independence voters?

Probably. Why do you think so?

[Velasco]

These two pieces might work well as an overview of the current state of affairs.

The new bid for secession in Catalonia:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/catalonia-calls-election-in-new-bid-for-secession-from-spain.html?_r=0

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The "unpredictable political autumn" and the trend spotted by the CIS poll:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/05/uk-spain-politics-poll-idUKKCN0QA17Z20150805

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[Velasco]

PM Mariano Rajoy announced that the Spanish General Election will take place on December 20.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/10/01/actualidad/1443726596_360140.html

[Velasco]

Metroscopia poll released by El País:

Vote estimation for C's seems a bit exaggerated, as usual in this pollster. However the trend in last polls is that, after elections in Catalonia, the orange party is replacing the purple as third force.

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (October 5):

PP 27%, PSOE 21.9%, C's 16.5%, Podemos 14.8%, IU 4.5%

I think PSOE's estimation is a bit low, whereas according to Metroscopia there's a PP-PSOE tie. My guess is that PP might be ahead by a narrow margin (2% or 3%).

[Velasco]

Well, Kiko Llaneras has released a poll average. Also showing C's estimation according to Metroscopia, which is just crazy.

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too, so there's some kid of balance in that average. However, it includes polls released from Aug 15. I think such kind of work will be more interesting within one month from the date of the Catalan elections. There's a realistic chance of seeing C's as third party, so Albert Rivera could realize his dream of becoming the king maker. It'd be amusing a government of the two Kens: Pedro Sánchez and Rivera but (as far as I know) C's is not willing to join coalition governments (regrettably ).

[Velasco]

You're right though. C's seems inclined (I'd say) towards supporting a minority PSOE government from outside (PP? Unlikely, I think) and will demand electoral law changes and a constitutional revision, in which all four main parties will participate. I wonder what will happen if we go down that route, in 1978 there were 2 main parties and 4 0.5 parties (PCE, AP, Minoría catalana and PNV), whereas now you have 4 national parties, one alienated Catalan nationalist and the PNV (funny how things change, now the PNV would be the more pragmatic unlike in 78). Reforming the Constitution (if it happens) will be a difficult thing.

I see a clash between PNV and C's on an issue called concierto económico, because that is a sacred thing regardless how pragmatic Basque nationalists are. That's far from being the only obstacle for a much needed constitutional reform. The balance of forces between the four main parties after the elections has relevance in this context.

[Velasco]

Including NC Report and Celeste-Tel is crazy too

I guess so, but it is still mind-blowing. NRC Report and Celeste are indeed over-valuing the PP, but  in a less blatant manner (if still pretty blatant), because you can still find some polls in between, but sometimes it seems like Metroscopia has stopped calling people altogether and just make up random numbers. Worst part is that Metroscopia still has a reputation that neither NRC nor Celeste-Tel have. Which is worrying.

Wait, Metroscopia was reasonably spotted on in predicting the result in Catalonia on September 27.

http://www.politicalmarkets.com/wordpress/?p=2099

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/09/22/media/1442955198_970208.html

Metroscopia estimations for the general election are another question (they tend to overestimate insurgent parties, particularly C's). Still, I think that pollster is more reliable than NC Report (they only work for La Razón and the PP) and Celeste-Tel (apparently the polling chief is the wife of that of NC Report).

You are right of course, and this is all hypothesising. Elections in December are very far away in political terms and it can rain a lot in between. I do wonder how extending special protection to Catalan would work, as Catalanists want and PSOE and Podemos seem inclined to accept. What do you do? Put a clause saying "Catalan deserves special protection from the State"?

At this point, I would put the word "nation" together with the word "Catalunya" in the constitutional text. In the present text Catalonia is already a "historical nationality". Recently Valencia regional premier Ximo Puig proposed to restore the 2006 Catalan Stature, the same Albert Rivera says is unconstitutional. Of course Catalans would ask for some safeguards for the Catalan language, in order to prevent that someone like José Ignacio Wert takes on again Education and Culture portfolios.

I read today (I should say yesterday, it's 2 AM at home) a good article by historian Santos Juliá, who is the best alive in what concerns Manuel Azaña. I don't necessarily agree on the whole text, but I liked very much the part where he explains how Jaume Vicens Vives -probably the most prominent Catalan historian in the XX Century- had to fight against the "romantic compulsion" that tends to rewrite the past in order to match with a certain nationalistic narrative -of course very 19th century, that is to say 'romantic'-. Reading those paragraphs, you can understand it is only one step from that and the "Catalunya vs Espanya" exhibition on the anniversary of the 1714 siege of Barcelona, which wasn't the final stage of a war between two nations but the end of a dynastic conflict. I'd wish that desire to break away - which, of course, is as legitimate as the desire to stay- didn't need traducing history in order to sustain itself. As for the other camp (call it unionist, constitutionalist, Spanish nationalist, or whatever you want), you can read tons of remarkable nonsense... In short, there's a huge lack of rigor everywhere.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/08/opinion/1444320757_315511.html

[Velasco]

Add this little affair to the list of troubles:

"Brussels ratifies report warning Spain over deficit target risks"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/13/inenglish/1444725703_984035.html

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The point is that, aside that general opinion says the budget is unrealistic and will need to be revised, no Spanish government has ever passed a budget only a few months before the elections. It's like to tie the hands of the next administration. That report, of course, is a deadly blow for the government's complacency.

[Velasco]

Mariano Rajoy dissolves parliament.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/26/inenglish/1445875171_273653.html

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On Catalonia.

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[Velasco]

October polls.

Sigma Dos / Mediaset (15/10/15)

PP 27.4%, PSOE 23.7%, C's 18.1%, Podemos 16.3%, IU 4.1%, CDC 2.2%, PNV 1.5%, Others 8.3%

Invymark / La Sexta (19/10/15)

PP 28.6%, PSOE 23.9%, C's 18.3%, Podemos 13.5%, IU 3%, Others 12.6%

TNS Demoscopia / Antena 3 (25/10/15)

PP 26%, PSOE 20.5%, C's 19.2%, Podemos 14.6%, IU 4.4%, Others 14.8%

Metroscopia / El País (28/10/15)

PP 23.5%, C's 22.5%, PSOE 21%, Podemos 17%, IU 6.3%, Others 9.7%

Projection of seats (Metroscopia): PP 93-100, PSOE 88-98, C's 72-84, Podemos 42-46, IU 5, Others 33-34

[Velasco]

Past week Catalan secessionist parties declared the beginning of the independence process:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/10/27/inenglish/1445940124_546366.html

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On Tuesday PP, PSC and C's filed a joint appeal against the separatists' motion:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446545121_442805.html

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As long as Catalan separatism is the heart of the debate, good news for C's and bad for PSOE and Podemos.

In other news, "mixed signals" from labor market:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/03/inenglish/1446540384_041032.html

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(4.1 million is the number of the officially registered unemployed. The Labour Force Survey -EPA- published every three months provides more realistic figures).

[Velasco]

No de-iure threshold at all. The de-facto threshold comes from the province-based d'Hondt method seat allocation and varies between ca. 2.5% (Madrid) and ca. 25-30% (Soria). Most provinces have between 3 and 8 seats, so the de-facto threshold is ca. 10-20%. Regional parties like CDC, ERC, PNV, Bildu, BNG will get proportional representation, because they are strong in a few provinces. Relatively small parties with more equally distributed support like IU may get seats only in the big provinces of Madrid and Barcelona, even if they get over 5% nationally.

There is a threshold. In order to win seats, only lists getting more than 3% are considered for the allocation of seats in every province. The 3% threshold only works de-facto in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona (36 and 31 seats, respectively). In the rest of provinces it works like you said.

[Velasco]

How efficient is the renovating IU vote? Is it diffuse or concentrated to a few odd provinces?

Also will the parties in Catalonia be the same as what was in the provincial election (I.e. CDC + ERC and Podemos+Greens+IU)?

I'd say the distribution of the IU vote tends to be diffuse. If you look at the 2008 election -the IU's nadir- is evident how the Spanish electoral system mistreats minor national parties. Then, IU only managed to win 2 seats getting 3.8% of the vote nationwide: 1 in Madrid and 1 in Barcelona (this one was for ICV, the IU's Catalan partner). Traditionally IU had a number of strong places such as Madrid, Asturias or some Andalusian provinces. Their chances of winning seats are basically reduced to that (add the Valencia province, being optimistic). 

CDC and ERC are going to run in their own in the Spanish General Election. As far as I know, the coalition between Podemos, ICV and IU stands in Catalonia*. On the other hand, the far-left separatist CUP has never ran in Spanish elections. The UDC will try to win a seat in the Spanish parliament, after their failure in the last regional election.

*Podemos wanted to forge alliances similar to that of Catalonia in regions like Valencia and Galicia, but I'm not sure if talks will succeed. In Valencia, the nationalist wing in Compromís is against a coalition with Podemos.

[Velasco]

CIS October survey (fieldwork, Oct 1-12)



54% of Spaniards has no confidence in Rajoy, according to CIS; nearly 29% of the respondents has little confidence in the PM. As for PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, 41% has little confidence and 35.5% no confidence at all.

In the news: "Constitutional Court rejects blocking Catalan independence motion vote"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/05/inenglish/1446747744_752094.html

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Basque premier takes some distance with the Catalan 'process'.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446638204_560427.html

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[Velasco]

    So, if in fact the PP and Ciudadanos have close to a working majority in the new Cortes, would such a coalition be the most likely outcome?

Current average polling suggests that the most viable option is a PP minority government backed by C's. The orange party is very reluctant to enter in coalition governments, unless they are the main force. Also, Ciudadanos reclaims that PP must cut Mariano Rajoy's head before start speaking. Trend in last polls shows that oranges are rocketing, to the point that some people say they will give a surprise in the elections. There's a great volatility and it's hard to say if that progression will continue.

Wiki average polling:



In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

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The purple party is struggling to improve the downward trend after the failure in Catalan elections. I believe they'll have a hard time.

[Velasco]

The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

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[Velasco]

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 

I'm not Castilian, but I can tell you that Catalan separatists are living in a sort of dreamlike state -we'll see how hard is the awakening- and the whole 'process' is nothing but a grotesque farce, which leads to a cul de sac that sadly is going to have serious consequences in the whole 'Spanish State'. On the other hand, Mariano Rajoy's administration has a heavy responsibility in this state of affairs. I think this man should have resigned for his incompetence in handling the problem and the corruption that rots the Popular Party, rottenness that has a clear counterpart in the Artur Mas' CDC.

However, corruption and other problems are going to be pushed to the background, apparently. As for the elections, polarisation favors Ciudadanos and PP to a lesser extent. Catalan separatists are fully aware of that, but they don't care because they have embarked on that delusion called procés sobiranista. On the other hand, even Artur Mas' skills as trickster are not enough to convince the CUP to vote for him to continue in the post of 'driver of the 'process'. Terrible and grotesque mess... It's possible that part of the support for separatism in Catalonia is motivated by the desire of achieving a better bargaining position with the 'Spanish State', but the development of events might not lead to that. One thing is clear for some people in this country: Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas are obstacles to solve the political problem. 

[Velasco]

What are these Castillians you speak of?

Castilla is the center-north portion of Spain, it's  sometime used as a term for the regions not looking for further  autonomy  or independence

Nanwe is from Valladolid, so I'm sure that he knows where is located Castile in the Spanish portion of the Iberian Peninsula. By the way, the 'Old Castile' (currently Castilla y León) is in the center-north, while the 'New Castile' (Castilla-La Mancha) lies in the center-south and Madrid is in the center-center of the Peninsula. The point is that saying that the rest of Spaniards are "Castilian" is fully incorrect. Another question is that Spanish language is called "Castilian" in Latin America and parts of Spain like Catalonia. I'm "Castilian speaking", but certainly not "Castilian" because I was born and live in another region and don't have family roots in that part of Spain.

In the news, Podemos recruits former Chief of Defense Julio Rodríguez to run in the Zaragoza province. "It's an honor for us to be joined by Julio Rodríguez, a man who has devoted his life to defending his country”, said Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/04/inenglish/1446648712_679491.html

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This is confusing, given what I know of the Spanish Armed Forces.

I ignore what do you know, but Franco died a long ago and Spanish Armed Forces have changed a little bit since then. General Julio Rodríguez was considered close to PSOE and had a close working relationship with former Minister of Defence Carme Chacón, who is a woman from Catalonia. Apparently, the conservative Spanish government didn't like Mr Rodríguez's move. Current Minister of Defence criticised him for entering politics, in spite of the fact that the man is retired from active duty.

[Velasco]

Constitutional Court accepted a Government's appeal yesterday, triggering the suspension of the motion approved by the Catalan Parliament on Monday in order to begin the "breaking away process". The Court warns 21 high ranking Catalan officials -including acting premier Artur Mas and parliamentary speaker Carme Forcadell- that they must fulfill this decision and prevent any inititative ignoring it, but didn't accept the government's request on warning said officials that they face suspension.

Today acting premier Artur Mas faces the second investiture vote in the Parliament of Catalonia. In order to obtain parliamentary support from the CUP, Artur Mas offered to delegate powers creating three vice-presidencies that would be held by Neus Munté (CDC), Oriol Junqueras (ERC) and Raül Romeva (the JxSí top candidate in past elections). Officially the CUP persists in saying "no" to Mas, but apparently a 'moderate' faction is prone to accept some formula that permits incumbent premier to hold on office arguing that "many people wouldn't understand that Mas falls precisely now". Resolution in a few hours.

[Velasco]

I'm not paying attention to political developments, but there was a three-cornered debate between Mariano Rajoy's main challengers. There was an empty stand for the incumbent PM, who refused to attend.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/01/inenglish/1448958135_116203.html

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Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría will attend a similar debate in Antena 3 TV, while Mr. Rajoy will face the official leader of the opposition (Pedro Sánchez) alone in another upcoming TV debate.

According to internet users following the debate, Pablo Iglesias was the winner. You know that internet polls are internet polls. I didn't follow that, so I can't give an opinion.

Average polling at Electograph (as of Nov 30):

PP 27.6%, PSOE 21.5%, C's 19.8%, Podemos* 14.9%, IU** (UP) 4.2%

* Including regional coalitions in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia

** IU is disguised as Unidad Popular ("Popular Unity") in coalition with minor parties.

General Election poll for Catalonia (GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya on Nov 28)

En Comú Podem (ECP= Podemos + ICV + EUiA + Barcelona en Comú) 19.4% (9-10 seats)

C's 18.4% (8-10 seats)

ERC 18.1% (9-11 seats)

PSC-PSOE 17.4% (8-9 seats)

Democràcia i Llibertat ("Democracy and Freedom"= CDC and minor parties) 14.1% (7-8 seats)

PP 8.8% (3-4 seats)

Others 3.8%

[Velasco]

Assuming the election results turn out roughly something like the way the  polls are showing, I wonder how the electoral system will translate those votes into seats. Outside of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia districts, there are so many 5 to 10 seat districts, that I wonder if the proportional aspect will be severely weakened or not.

The electoral system penalizes third national parties in small districts. However, this effect might be damped in case the four main parties surpass 15% of the vote nationwide.

Last GESOP poll for all Spain (I already posted the estimation for Catalonia) shows the following percentages and projection of seats (which is a very approximate estimate; it's impossible to translate accurately vote percentages into seats):

PP 23.9% PSOE 21.4%, C's 21%, Podemos 16%, IU 4.9%, ERC 2.7%, DL (CDC) 2%, Others 8.1%

PP 98-102 seats, PSOE 82-86, C´s 76-80, Podemos 52-56, ERC 9-11, DL 7-8, IU 4-6, Others 11-15

Note that ERC and DL (CDC) are regional parties that only run in the four Catalan provinces, whereas IU runs nationwide and its vote is scattered in a greater number of districts.

The last GAD3 poll has the following figures:

PP 28.3%, PSOE 23.1%, C's 17.4%, Podemos 14.9%, IU 4%, ERC 2.5%, DL (CDC) 2.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.4%. EHBildu 1.3%

Seats: PP 125, PSOE 91, C's 59, Podemos 41, ERC 9, DL 9, EAJ-PNV 5, EHBildu 5, IU 3...

I would insist on the usual inaccuracy of seat projections; they only give an approximation.

Will UDC die if it not enters the cortes?!

At the very least UDC would be virtually dead, regardless if the party still exists.

[Velasco]

CIS November survey

PP 28.6% (120-128 seats)

PSOE 20.8% (77-89 seats)

C's 19% (63-66 seats)

Podemos + allies 15.7% (45-49 seats)

Podemos 9.1% (23-25), ECP 3.2% (10-11), Compromís-Podem 2.1% (7), En Marea 1.3% (5-6)

IU (Unidad Popular) 3.6% (3-4 seats)

Regional parties:

CDC (Democràcia i Llibertat) 2.2% (9 seats)

ERC 1.9% (7 seats)

EHBildu 1.2% (6-7 seats)

EAJ-PNV 1.1% (5 seats)

CC 0.3% (1 seat)

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2015/12/03/21679134b4464ad41e54d8042deb43a8.pdf

<sub>Regional alliances:

PP is allied with UPN in Navarre, PAR in Aragon and FAC in Asturias

PSOE is allied with NC in the Canary Islands

Podemos runs in coalition outfits in the following regions: Catalonia (ECP), Valencia (with Compromís) and Galicia (En Marea)

IU is allied with CHA in Aragon. In Catalonia is part of the ECP (with Podemos, ICV and BComú), while in Galicia (if I'm not wrong) IU is part of En Marea.</sub>

[Velasco]

Nice work, very interesting.

Since about 40% of people who said they are going to vote haven't yet made up their minds, all these projections can not simply be very accurate.

Indeed. It's interesting the data on the undecided voters and group ages. There is a clear generation gap (and between the town and the country). The difference with regard to other polls is that the CIS sample is massive (more than 17,000 nationwode), so on paper the projection is more adjusted. Still, some provincial results seem a bit strange to me.

The raw polling data in the CIS survey is the following:

PP 16.2%, PSOE 14.9%, Podemos + alliances 11.8%, C's 11.6%, IU (UP) 2.6%, ERC 1.7%, CDC (DL) 1.2%, EHBildu 0.7%, PNV 0.7%.

[Velasco]

Also, although the predict that IU will win a seat in Asturias, is Llamazares still running there? If not, maybe the seat could be potentially lost by IU. And already, according to the prediction, they are going to lose their own grupo, so that'd be even worse...

The IU candidate in Asturias is a certain Manuel González Orviz. Probably the seat is going to be hard to retain, I'd say IU has marginal chances there. Bearing in mind that Podemos got 19% in the regional election and IU 11.9% with Llamazares as candidate, I think it's more likely a second seat for Podemos in that province. Maybe the CIS is correct with the other parties (PP+FAC 3 seats, PSOE 2 and C's 1).

As for Podemos, I think they're going to perform a bit worse in Catalonia and the Basque Country than the CIS predicts. Anyway there's an extreme volatility in Catalonia.

Also, I find surprising the projection in Andalusian provinces. The CIS estimates 3 seats for Ciudadanos in Seville and Malaga and 2 in Cadiz, while Podemos gets only 1 seat in each. I can't believe that C's gets 14 seats in the region and Podemos only 5.

I wonder if the estimated result for the oranges in Madrid is not a bit exaggerated, although at this point I find plausible that C's comes second (and PSOE fourth!). In certain Castilian provinces it might happen that C's surpasses PSOE as second party and gets the last seat... But the difference could be a handful of votes, so these seats are not secure.