Juan Carlos calls it a day

[Velasco]

The republican banner will wave again soon. The writing is on the wall.

But whatever happens, remember it is the King who brought democracy to Spain.

It's not completely true. Social changes would have made impossible an authoritarian monarchy, preserving the essence of the old regime. I don't question his merits or motivations and I'll abstain myself to express my opinion on his figure now. In any case, the king had clear that monarchy had to adapt or to die and pushed for the establishment of a parliamentary regime. Sentences like "the King brought democracy to Spain" downplay the importance of other actors, some proceeding from the old regime (Suárez) and others from the democratic opposition. Democracy is not a divine grace.

[Velasco]

You seem to believe that Juan Carlos had magic powers and did all the hard work.

[Velasco]

You seem to believe that Juan Carlos had magic powers and did all the hard work.

I don't seek to denigrate the role of people like Suarez, Calvo-Sotelo, or Areilza, but it was really Juan Carlos who led the charge and set the tone that democracy was going to be established, especially after 20-N. It might have been the right choice, but that does not make it a foregone conclusion.

How about people like that filthy communist called Carrillo?  And the people, Simfan? Again, it wasn't a gracious award.

[Velasco]

You seem to believe that Juan Carlos had magic powers and did all the hard work.

He did a lot of the hard work. While preserving a monarchy the way Franco planned for was not possible, many different things could have happened. A civil war - or a few of those. An unstable coup-prone Latin quasi-democracy. Putin-style caudillismo.  That Spain is a modern democracy today was far from pre-ordained. And Juan Carlos actively participated in making it what it is. He was not alone, of course. But he had a major role that hardly anybody else could have performed.

Actually, I don't question his major role and his active involvement in the events after the death of Franco. Also, there is the fact that many people feared a new civil war in that time, because the openness that society was demanding was in frontal opposition with the Franco's old guard (called then 'the bunker'). Alternatives belong to counterfactual history and I'm not a big fan of it but, yes, many worse things could have happened. However and as you say, he wasn't alone and some sugarcoated and mythologizing narrative might make believe that, without the active collaboration of other people -inside and outside his inner circle- and the civil society, he would have 'brought' democracy to us like a grant. He deserves recognition, I have no doubt about it. I think that narrative I referred to, highly focused on the king and his inner circle, has contributed to one of the main criticisms against the Transition, the so-called 'Elite Pact'. There are others, such us the 'Oblivion Pact'. The voluntary amnesia on the Spain's recent past made some sense in the first years of the Spanish Transition, but it has lasted too long. Now we have a country besieged by multiple crisis (economic, territorial, moral, etc) with its main institutions exhausted (including monarchy), invaded by pessimism and in need of a change of direction. I would not like to be in Felipe's shoes, because he has a terribly complex challenge in front of him.

[Velasco]

I don't think that I deserve the government we have. Perhaps, if Felipe was useful in mediation and building bridges between Catalonia and the rest of Spain, I'd remain neutral on monarchy. It looks a nearly impossible task in this moment. On the other hand, the independence movement is peaceful and it's silly to think that we are on the verge of a civil war. Catalonia is not Crimea, don't you know? However, economic consequences of secession might be terrible in both sides and the political and territorial stability of what would remain of Spain might be in distress. Anyway, saying "no" to a referendum is not a solution. I don't like this one called on November 9 because questions are tricky, but some day Catalans will have to be asked on what the hell they want to be. Is it clear enough?

[Velasco]

Why would the economic consequences be terrible? Both states would still be in the EU with free movement of goods and persons.

That's what independence supporters say, but it's only feasible in the case of a friendly separation. The Spanish government considers that the referendum called in Catalonia is illegal and won't accept the results whatever they are. An unilateral secession would have the consequence that Spain will put a veto on Catalonia's admission. On the other hand, even Scotland will have to wait some years before being readmitted, if I'm not wrong. As for Spain, Catalonia represents 20% of the GDP and a good share of the industrial production. Also, the independence of Catalonia would likely be followed by the Basque Country or, at least, by increasing demands from this and other regions. The only way out is negotiation, constitutional reform and a referendum agreed between Spanish and Catalan governments.