Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Velasco]

I like and admire Bachelet at a personal level, though I'd be pleased with someone like Andrés Velasco. Probably Lumine's point about Bachelet's camarilla makes sense, given that other great leaders around the world, such as Nelson Mandela or Lula, have been surrounded by cliques. Apparently it's a common thing among great personalities, though I don't think that Bachelet's clique may be worse than Lula's, not to mention people surrounding Mandela.

Hope that you cover the primaries and related stuff, Lumine. By the way, there will be Legislative elections in Argentina on October or November, preceded by primary elections in August. I have maps and stuff, but I'm not sure if I comprehend politics in that country

[Velasco]

Who do you believe with most chances in the Coalition Primaries, Allamand or Longueira? Once Golborne is (surprisingly) out, previous polls suggest that Bachelet might have an easier race, but it's too soon to say anything, of course. May I bet for Longueira, given that UDI has a stronger party structure, or do you think that Allamand will fight hard?

[Velasco]

-May 10th: A judge rules that Michelle Bachelet can be legally accused of the deaths of several chileans during the 2012 Earthquake, due to negligence. The possibility of a trial was brushed off by several leaders of the Concertacion, who believe that this would be nothing more than a political trial.

What can you say us about the judge who accepted the lawsuit? Those who were the plaintiffs?

[Velasco]

According to Wikipedia the final results are:

Nueva Mayoría:

Bachelet (PS) 73.05%; Velasco (IND) 13%; Orrego (DC) 8.87%; Gómez (PRSD) 5.06%.

Also, there are results by region. Bachelet got a 65% in the Santiago Metropolitan and around 73% in Valparaíso and Antofagasta, whereas in the rest of regions percentages raise to 80% in many cases. Velasco performed well in the Metropolitan (17.77%), Antofagasta (14.2%) and Valparaíso (12.96%) and Obrego only breaks 10% in the Metropolitan region.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Nueva_Mayor%C3%ADa_de_2013#Resultados

Alianza: Longueira (UDI) 51.37%; Allamand (RN) 48.62%.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primarias_presidenciales_de_la_Alianza_de_2013#Resultados


Around 3 million of Chileans voted in the primaries, more than 2.1 million for the Concertación candidates. Bachelet got more votes than the addition of all her Concertación opponents and the Alianza candidates. Orrego and Gómez stated that they are at the disposal of Bachelet, but Velasco said that he's going to vote for her but he won't call his voters to do so. Predictably, most of Velasco's supporters will vote for Bachelet and very few for Longueira.

On the other hand, Bachelet is endorsed by the Communist Party and the student leader Camila Vallejo changed her initial opposition and now supports the Concertación candidate. Nevertheless, in the PC and especially in the student movement there are many critics and Bachelet will have to work hard, and her promises on structural reforms convincing enough, to attract all the left to her side.  Also, Bachelet will have to do balances with the Christian Democracy, very weakened with the result, which is remiss to have the communists in the government. PC subordinates entering in a government pact to the definitive draft of Bachelet's program. The PC and the DC, aside from being traditional adversaries, support opposite positions in questions like abortion or marijuana decriminalization. Vallejo stated that making alliances with the DC hurts her stomach a bit.

[Velasco]

I think it was the right the most opposed to put an end to the Binomial Parliamentary System, which is in fact the cause of the polarization between the two coalitions. Don't you think people like Piñera (who was opposed to Pinochet in the past) or 'reformists' in a similar line would fit well with DC?

[Velasco]

Post-Primary: Or, how the campaign got insane:

At the same time, RN and the Concertacion managed to put together an agreement to modify up the Binomial system and eliminate some of the unfair parts of it. UDI and the Government, left aside, decided to create their own plan (a very rushed and useless proposal).

So screw the coalition, I'm sick of the bickering and the hegemony of UDI and the far right, I will be voting independent in this election.

It's great that RN supports a reform of the Binomial system but, do you think it's possible to pass legislation in time for the next elections? From what I read in the press, I got the impression that it's unlikely.

Also, if you are going to root for an independent, which would be your choice? Parisi perhaps?, Jocelyn-Holt? Marcel Claude Reyes? It would be interesting to know their pros and cons from your perspective.

I think (it's just an speculation) that any candidate supported by the right would have insured an important percentage of vote, do not know if 1/4 or 1/3. More than 10 % in any case... unless some independent candidate was capable of assembling an important support around him/her, enough to be perceived as a viable alternative. What do you think?

[Velasco]

Thank you for sharing your impressions on the independents and outsiders. Obviously it was a little joke asking you for Marcel Claude.

From what I'm reading in la Tercera right now, Joaquín Lavín has agreed to be the chief of Matthei's campaign, the same post that was going to occupy with Longueira - btw, it's funny to know that campaign chiefs in Chile receive the name of generalissimo, perhaps because electoral campaigns are like wars-. Lavín has stated that Matthei is willing to accept closed primaries or a convention in order to look for an unity candidacy, but also ramarks that the candidate has to be competitive because "we have too much at stake", not only presidential but parliamentary elections. On the other hand the president of PS, Osvaldo Andrade, says that UDI, loyal to its "dictatorial womb", has imposed the candidate and says that the aim of UDI is not the presidential race but to maintain an important parliamentary group and I think he's hinting that RN might get pressures from UDI because of the reform of the Binomial system.

Two daughters of Air Force Generals facing one to another. Matthei's father was Air Force Academy commander when Bachelet's father was imprisioned there.

Nevertheless, months before Michelle's comeback, when the polemic around general Matthei arose in the context of the investigation on the murder of general Bachelet, her widow said that she has the certainty of which general Matthei wasn't in the Academy when her husband was tortured. "He always was a friend of ours", said Mrs Bachelet dismissing Matthei's connection. So I guess this won't be an issue, unless the investigation says the opposite. On the other hand, Evelyn Matthei is known as the "Iron Lady" of the Chilean right and her clashes with some parliamentarians, so perhaps there will be a hot campaign, dialectically speaking.

[Velasco]

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

Full size here: http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/7442/ught.png

[Velasco]

Finally, I've finished a map of the 2009-2010 Presidential Election. Vote percentages for the 1st round and margins for the 2nd round.

I have to admit, it easily shows how Ominami damaged Frei in the First Round (even beating him and Piñera in some of the Concertacion northern strongholds), but at the same time it shows the usual strongholds for both the Concertacion and the Alianza/Coalicion in the second round, that is, the Concertacion usually wins the north, the Coalicion/Alianza the south, and the center and Santiago are the tossups to win.

... And the lack of enthusiasm around Frei's candidacy. The addition Frei+Ominami+Arrate was 55% against 45% for the Coalition in the First Round. If you look at the north, Frei's margins in Atacama and Antofagasta were low, whereas Coquimbo reamined as a stronghold in the interior but not in La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation, which was a tossup. I think Concertación's margins in popular areas of Santiago might have been higher in 'normal' conditions. In the south, I was thinking Valdivia was more right leaning than Puerto Montt, but I was wrong because Piñera achieved a strong victory in the latter and Frei won a tossup in the first.

The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

This might have been the case before, with different candidates. Can it still be the case w/ a Matthei vs. Bachelet race? Matthei agreeing to be the candidate by itself converts it into a referendum. Short of coming out strongly and forcefully against the old junta (including her own father),  I can hardly think what she can do to avoid this being the main theme of the entire race. The only way she could be running for president without making it the yes/know referendum that I see would be if she had made her career on the left, not on the right.

Bachelet shouldn't be taking anything for granted, though. Whoever takes a presidential race for granted, loses against a determined opponent.

My opinion is that symbols plus the style of the UDI candidate may movilize a sizeable sector among the voters of the old Concertación against Matthei, but I doubt Bachelet will use the past as a banner of her campaign. That's not her style.

[Velasco]

Today I bought the paper, as I used to do on Sundays, and I found an article about Bachelet and Matthei families. Michelle (6) and Evelyn (4) were living by 1958 in the same street in a military base in Antofagasta, in the north of Chile.

I have another map, this time of the 2005 election. The first round looks like a landslide for Bachelet because the vote of the right was splitted at almost equal parts between Sebastián Piñera (RN) and Joaquín Lavín (UDI). Bachelet got 45.96%, Piñera 25.41%, Lavín 23.23% and Tomás Hirsch (Together We Can, left-wing) 5.4%. In the 2nd round Bachelet defeated Piñera by a 7% margin (53.5% to 46.5%).

Full size to see the details: http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3076/70hv.png

[Velasco]

Fascinating map, it manages to give a very different view of what happened in the 2005 2nd round by portraying major Bachelet landslides. The argument that the PC helps the Concertacion win the second round was used in both 2000 and 2005, and while that was true in Ricardo Lagos's victory, Bachelet managed to trounce Piñera using both Hirsch's left wing vote and (I believe) the vote of women (in this case, middle class women who usually vote DC but have a tendency to vote for the right when the Concertacion candidate is too left wing).

How about Ominami in 2009?. In Chile you have separate booths for men and women, so perhaps you could demonstrate your theory about the 2005 election checking the 1st and 2nd round results in certain communes. In Argentina there were separate polling booths at least until the 2009 elections. In the 2007 presidential Elisa Carrió got higher percentages among the women and the difference was quite perceptible in some cases. It's curious because her main rival was a woman too and performed in the opposite way, with higher support among men.

[Velasco]

This is not going to be an exciting race, apparently, but the election is in 11 days.

CEP poll (September-October).

Michelle Bachelet (Nueva Mayoría) 47% Evelyn Matthei (Alianza) 14% Franco Parisi (Independent) 10% Marco Enríquez-Ominami (Progressive Party) 7% Marcel Claude Reyes (Humanist Party) 3%. Other candidates under 1%, undecided 16%

http://www.cepchile.cl/PDFs_CEP/encuestaCEP_sep-oct2013-completa.pdf

Last poll in El Mercurio: Bachelet 46.2%; Matthei 21.7%; Parisi 7.9%; Ominami 7.2%; Claude Reyes 1.7%.

http://impresa.elmercurio.com/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?dt=2013-11-02&dtB=02-11-2013%200:00:00&PaginaId=2&bodyid=3

However, other polls give different and contradictory results and Bachelet has lower percentages. The less generous with the former socialist president are UVM (Viña del Mar University, 27.1%) and Ipsos (32%) polls. Matthei is between 14.3% (Diego Portales University) and 26% (La Segunda). Parisi seems to be the more unpredictable, oscillating between 7.9% (El Mercurio) and 26.1% (EM Antofagasta). Has Parisi chances to become in the surprise of this election?

[Velasco]

I would trust those last polls more, Bachelet is really popular, but she is not going to steal away the election in a massive landslide. Somehow I don't believe it, even when the right has suffered massive blows this year... Besides, most polls have a bias anyway, so it's hard to trust them.

I was suspecting that most of polls are biased and not too much reliable. While I was taking a look, I speculated a bit on the possible result in the first round and my conclusion was not so different from yours. My bet is that the 1st round might have some similarity with the 2005 result. Bachelet first with about 45% of the vote. Matthei playing the role of Lavín in 2005 and struggling to reach 25% and the second round. Parisi coming from behind -a mix of Piñera 2005 and Ominami 2009- and threatening the UDI candidate. Ominami coming fourth like Hirsch in 2005.

Santiago has brilliant public transport

Indeed. The users of the Sarmiento Line in Buenos Aires have more reasons to complain. They would like to have a public transport as that of Santiago. Also some Argentinians envy the stability of the Chilean party system but, on the other hand, polls say a majority in Chile is deeply disillusioned by the political system.

[Velasco]

Lol, "El Poder de la Gente". It's not the best campaign song of all time, but it seems that Franco Parisi can connect with The People with simple and direct slogans: "a united country can't go back". If he reaches the second round it might be entertaining.

I think there are many things in the political and institutional system in Chile that might be improved. An excess of stability can drive to a sclerosis of the system and this increases the social dissatisfaction. Among presidential candidates, only Matthei doesn't want to reform or change the 1980 Constitution.

[Velasco]

Could you tell us in which districts has Nueva Mayoria chances of doubling the Alliance?

Is RN ready to vote in favour of the removal of the nasty binomial system?

[Velasco]

Thanks, Ichabod and Lumine. I'll take a look to those districts tonight before going to sleep...on a second thought, likely tomorrow morning, my time zone is GMT (I don't recall if it's a difference of 5 or 6 hours).

I'm the worst election predictor that ever stepped, so I'm going to follow Tender and you can laugh at me tomorrow.

Michelle Bachelet 48%; Evelyn Matthei 25%; Franco Parisi (The Power of the People) 11%; Ominami 7%; Marcel Claude 3%; others 6%.

[Velasco]

In some Santiago city quarters it's much closer though, and in the richest quarters, Matthei is even in the lead. In the rich Pinochet quarter Las Condes, Matthei has received 60.8% of the vote so far, compared with Bachelet's lackluster 17.3%. Even in Viña del Mar it's pretty close between the two, although Bachelet is so far ahead with about a 5% margin.

Overall in the Santiago province it's Bachelet 39.6% against Matthei's 29.5%. In the greater region of Santiago the percentages are about the same, although Matthei then slips to 28.2%.

It's normal, communes in NE Santiago are Alliance strongholds. It's rather shocking (or maybe not) that Sfeir performed pretty well in those places. Evelyn Matthei topped the polls in the following communes of Metropolitan Santiago:

Vitacura: Matthei 66.84%; Bachelet 12.73%; Sfeir 8.93%; Ominami 6.32%; Parisi 2.47%; Claude 0.91%

Las Condes: Matthei 58.76%; Bachelet 16.67%; Ominami 8.97%; Sfeir 8.43%; Parisi 3.87%; Claude 1.39%

Providencia: Matthei 41.65%; Bachelet 24.65%; Ominami 12.91%; Sfeir 9.56%; Parisi 5.18%; Claude 3.21%.

La Reina: Matthei 36.59%; Bachelet 29.61%; Ominami 13.25%; Sfeir 9.42%; Parisi 5.34%; Claude 3.25%.

Marco Enríquez-Ominami almost doubled Parisi in Santiago Metro. Parisi performed better than Ominami in the rest of the country. In some communes Ominami came very close to Matthei. For example:

Maipú (W of Santiago): Bachelet 39.62%; Matthei 22.15%; Ominami 18.48%; Parisi 10.71%; Claude Reyes 4.5%; Sfeir 2.51%.

La Florida (SE): Bachelet 41.15%; Matthei 23.98%; Ominami 16.2%; Parisi 8.56%; Claude 4.43%; Sfeir 3.22%.

Camila Vallejo has been elected deputy in la Florida. She got 43.77% of the vote; the UDI candidate won the other seat with 24.15%.

Thanks for the compilation, ag.

[Velasco]

Results by commune.

[Velasco]

Results by candidate and commune in Gretaer Santiago.

[Velasco]

As far as I know, a constitutional reform requires 2/3 of the Congress (80 deputies and 25 senators). Impossible, unless RN is open to negotiate. Bachelet is unwilling to call a Constituent Assembly, but perhaps she won't have another option.

A reform of the electoral law requires 3/5 in the Senate (23) and NM has 21. They need 1 independent and at least 1 RN.

Reforms in education need 4/7 in both chambers (69 and 22). It's feasible with the vote of independents.

Tax and labour reforms require simple majority.

[Velasco]

I forgot I made this last weekend. Greater Concepcion and Greater Valparaiso by candidate (only top four). Both metropolitan areas have a similar population (slightly less than 1 million).



Best places for Bachelet: Lota (59.03%), Hualqui (58.35%) and Penco (56.59%), all in Greater Concepcion.
Worst places: Concón (34.23%) and Viña del Mar (34.85%), both in Greater Valparaiso.

In Valparaiso commune Bachelet got 44.2% and 40.03% in the proper Concepcion.

Matthei's best performances were in Concón (33.3%) and Viña del Mar and her worst results were in the following communes of Greater Concepcion: Lota (13.69%), Penco (14.01%, 3rd) and Hualpén (15.68%, 3rd). In Valparaíso commune he got 21.95% and in Concepción commune 25.19%. It's curious because those were her worst and best results in Valparaiso and Concepcion metropolitan areas, respectively.

Franco Parisi's top performance was in Talcahuano (20.38%), were he came a close third behind Matthei (20.69%). He surpassed Matthei in several communes of Greater Concepcion, coming second in places like Hualpén (17.96%), Coronel (17.33%) or Penco (15.63%). In Greater Valparaiso he was between 11.24% (Concón) and 13.75% (Quilpué).

Enríquez-Ominami oscillated between 8,32% (Lota, Concepcion) and 12.64% (Quilpué, Valparaiso).

[Velasco]

The ghost of abstention overflies the second round of the presidential election, scheduled today. Fear of a massive abstention is making some people in the left consider a return to mandatory vote. Bachelet looks for the legitimacy of  a crushing victory to take forward her reformist agenda;  Matthei for her part has asked each one of her voters to take a person to the booths in order to work the "miracle". Bachelet's victory is granted for sure, but there's fear of seeing Matthei candidate polling 40%, figure similar to the historical support that has harvested the right in Chile. Actually nobody dares to make predictions, given the novelty of voluntary vote and the enormous apathy around this election.

During the scanty 30 days passed from the first round, Bachelet has obtained importantly alliances: with the Workers' Unitary Central (CUT); the ecologist Alfredo Sfeir; the Democratic Revolution movement, led by former student leader and deputy elect Giorgio Jackson; and even with some politicians in the right, such as senator Antonio Horvath, whose support will be key to put forward some initiatives in the Parliament.

Bachelet's team expect that the addition of new forces to their "mill" will weigh on today's result. However, the heterogeneous composition of the new majority will make reform plans very complex. Gabriel Boric, former student leader himself and Autonomous Left deputy elect, wrote in his Twitter account that Bachelet has "mathematical" but not "political" majority, because internal contradictions "are too deep" in the Nueva Mayoría coalition, which includes a political spectrum betwen the Christian Democracy and the Communists.

Evelyn Matthei was the winner in the last televised debate against Bachelet, who was giving vague and imprecise answers on her program to avoid internal confrontation. The debate's rating was very low, around 30% of share.

[Velasco]

If someone's interested in the runoff:

http://www.eleccionservel.cl/ELECCIONES2013/vistaNavegacionSegundaVuelta

At this moment (96% reported) is Bachelet 62.23%/ Matthei 37.76%.

The count was quite fast. I think turnout will be 42% or 43%.

[Velasco]

2nd Round results. Bachelet/Matthei margin by commune.

Provisional result with 99.97% reported:

Michelle Bachelet 62.16%

Evelyn Matthei 37.83%

[Velasco]

Military staff, I guess. Note that in Antarctica there were only 21 votes cast: 15 for Matthei and 6 for Bachelet. In Cabo de Hornos, in the southern end of Tierra del Fuego, Matthei got 281 votes and Bachelet 180.

Compared with the first round, Evelyn Matthei won a tossup in Concón -a touristic resort N of Valparaiso- and in a handful of communes.