While I can't deny that German poster is 'funny' -unlike the others from the same origin, as plain and boring as Frau Merkel-, I wonder why don't you start another thread for electoral propaganda and other trivia. I'd even make my own contributions, posting the candidate of the Spanish PACMA party with an adorable puppie into her arms.
...
Strange poll from
El País.
PP 32.6% (20 seats); PSOE 32.2% (19); IU 12% (7); CiU+PNV+CC 4.7% (2);
UPyD 4.6% (2); ERC 4.2% (2); Cs 2.1% (1); Equo+Compromís+CHA 1.8% (1).
There must be an error with the UPyD result. The same pollster predicted 8% for the Rosa Díez's party past month. Otherwise, the poll seems about right in the general trend. There will be a punishment and abstention will overcome 50%, but the collapse of the two main parties (PP and PSOE) won't be so strong and both will retain more than 60% of the vote (falling from more than 80% in the 2009 EP elections). IU is strong and UPyD will rise, but their ascent seems to be halted and last polls show a slight descending trend for both parties. Peripheral nationalism will retain its share, with special mention to the ERC rise (I think the Catalan pro-independence party will get about 3% nationwide, not 4% as this poll predicts).
The EP elections are very important for Rajoy and Rubalcaba. If PP loses, the conservative regional 'barons' would become very nervous, because there will be regional and local elections next year. PSOE has internal tensions and later in this year the party will hold primary elections to choose a candidate for the next national election. Only if the list headed by Elena Valenciano -Rubalcaba's right-hand woman- wins the election, the incumbent PSOE leader would consider to run in the primaries. Otherwise, his long political career may come to a close.
There are regional results that will be of great importance and they will be followed closely. On the one hand the PP strongholds of Madrid and Valencia regions. Recent polls suggest that PP may lose majority and likely the government in both places in 2015. On the other hand the result in Catalonia. It's not unlikely an ERC victory there, surpassing the governing CiU and the hapless PSC (Catalan socialists). There are vague hopes in the Spanish government around a CiU's defeat at the hands of ERC. Such outcome is the worst nightmare for the governing nationalist coalition and would be a hard blow for Artur Mas. PP thinks it might drive the Catalan premier to rethink his strategy on the independence process going on. However, the pressure from ERC and (above all) from the Catalan National Assembly (a very influential pro-independence group from the 'civil society') on Mas is heavy, while the Spanish government has tried to put pressure on him through Catalan entrepreneurs. There is concern in Catalan PP because polls indicate the conservative party is losing ground to Ciutadans.
Curious poll conducted by the sociology department of the Complutense University for the EP elections in Madrid region:
PP 31.5%; PSOE 24.7%; UPyD 16.3%; IU 12%; Podemos 5.7%; Vox 2.8%; Equo 2.6%; Partido X 0.7%; Others 3.7%.
If I have to make a prediction for Spain, I think PP might get 32/33% of the vote and around 20 seats; PSOE slightly less than 30% and 18 seats; IU between 10% and 12% (6/7 seats); UPyD between 7% and 8% (4/5 seats); CiU+PP+CC 4% (2 seats); ERC 3% (1/2 seats); Cs 2% (1) and EHBildu+BNG something less than 2% (1). With some chances of winning a seat (more or less in this order): European Spring (Equo+Compromís+CHA), the far-left Podemos and the right-wing Vox Party.
