Spain election maps

[Velasco]

El Periódico de Catalunya releases today a poll in which, by the first time in modern History (I mean, from 1977 onwards), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) would win the elections if they were hold today.

ERC could gain 39-40 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia (+18 or +19), whereas CiU would lower to 34-35 (-15 or-16), PSC would be in danger of losing the third place with 16 or 17 seats (-3 or -4), with ICV-EUiA gaining 15-16 (+2 or +3), PP coming behind with 13-14 seats (-4 or -5), C's with 12-13 (+3 or +4) and the CUP with 3 (n.c.).

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/noticias/politica/erc-gana-elecciones-catalunya-2411278

More related to the topic, this graph shows the distribution of the vote to PP and PSOE among the electors located in the political center, in Catalonia (red) and the rest of Spain (blue), according to CIS post-election polls.



The most showy thing is that in the elections of 2008, in which PSC-PSOE obtained a crushing victory in Catalonia (see the map of Barcelona), the centrist vote had a totally opposite behavior in this region with regard to the rest of the country. In previous elections the behaviour in Catalonia was pretty similar to the rest of Spain.

I found the graph in this article (in Catalan, sorry):

http://www.cerclegerrymandering.cat/el-2008-la-cruilla-cap-la-independencia/

"In 2008 the center breaks. It had never happened before. We have to find the explanation in the statutory discussion that starts with the famous "I'll support" (the Catalan Statute) of Zapatero in the autonomic campaign of 2003 and that is the center of PP's political offensive in the 2008 campaign (as Rubalcaba has recognized recently). The most neutral sectors of the electoral body, which traditionally were moving by similar bosses in the whole territory, fracture between Catalonia and the rest (also it's possible to perceive the fracture in the Basque Country)".

The author thinks the 2008 Election was "the origin of everything" (regarding the independentist wave in Catalonia) because " it's on the basis of this differentiated result, this territorial break, the emergency of the cleavage center - periphery for the first time in general elections, that the actors begin to take their decisions. On the one hand, the PP becomes convinced of that the strategy (in spite of not having won) has been positive. If there's analyzed the behavior of the centrist electors of Spain without Catalonia, the PP advantage in 2008 is very similar to that of 1996, when they gained the first elections with Aznar".

"The other part is the most interesting, because until 2008  PSOE has played at accompanying the process of statutory reform (though not with the forcefulness of the round Zapatero's "I'll support" in Palau Sant Jordi). From the electoral result it can be said that the internal game is won by whom always they had distrusted the process. In Ferraz there are imposed those who think that the PSOE has won "in spite of " Catalonia, over whom they believe that it has done "thanks to" Catalonia. This one is the small change that will open the door for the rectification of the shot on the part of the central government, which will lead him to not intervening in the drift of the discussions of the Constitutional Court, which will finish with the famous sentence of July 2010, that will open  thunders' box".

[Velasco]

Interesting. Just how left is the Republican Left? They seem assuredly separatist - does their leftism take back seat to that (I note there are other leftist separatists: ICV & SI, seemingly catering for hard-left nationalists)? I'm not a great fan of separatism, although it seems a straightforward thing in that I'd prefer ERC bums on seats as oppose to CiU (who they largely seem to be replacing).

The Republican Left of Catalonia (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, ERC) is socialdemocrat, and it's commonly placed between ICV-EUiA (a red-green coalition) and PSC. However, as SNP and similar parties, nationalism/separatism is the key point of ERC's platform. They're supporting the Mas' government for the attainment of the Catalan national agenda, but they're no taking part in the government and the 2012 budget has been extended to 2013.
ICV-EUiA is not separatist in strict sense. Both the militancy and the voters are divided to almost equal parts on independence. It supports a referendum and the right of the Catalans to decide their future, but also the position that defends a state where Catalonia has the status of a nation but inside Spain or an asymmetric federalist solution, has a certain predicament. It's complicated to describe. On the other hand SI (Solidaritat Catalana per la Independéncia) is not left-wing, they describe themselves as a "transversal" or "cross-ideological" force and neither its main figure in the past (Joan Laporta, who already is not in SI and endorsed Mas) nor the candidate in the last election (Alfons López Tena, ex-CiU) are leftists.

[Velasco]

2011 General Elections in Navarre:



The coalition between the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) and the People's Party (UPN) won the elections in Navarre with 38.2% of the vote, winning 2 seats. PSOE came second with 22% and 1 seat. Amaiur (Sortu, Aralar, Eusko Alkartasuna, Alternatiba) came third with 14.9% and 1 seat. Geroa Bai (Independents + PNV) got 12.8% and 1 seat, a success due to the popularity of Uxue Barkos. No seats for IU (5.5%), UPyD (2.1%) and Equo (1.1%).

[Velasco]

This seems a pretty neat place for a first post

I've actually looked at this through time and it seems really interesting. As a political centrist, it'd be cool to know where the main support for the old CDS and also Roca and Garrigues Walker's PRD came from? Madrid I suppose.

Also, it's amazing how much the electoral system distorts the real voting results.

Welcome. It's interesting the question about the old CDS. I miss a party like that nowadays, even when I am not a potential voter. As you know, the party was tied to Adolfo Suarez's personality and it's not of surprising that CDS' best electoral records were in Avila, his natal province.

Taking advantage of having spent several hours editing some Wiki file to have a provincial base map, here you have the distribution of the vote for the CDS in 1986 by province:

 

CDS came third with 9,22% nationwide and 19 deputies. Madrid (13,94%) wasn't the best region for CDS, just the third best. The party got 17,46% in Castilla y León and 16,9% in the Canaries. Above 10% in Asturias (13,16%), Cantabria (12,96%), Balearic Islands (11,29%), Rioja (10,08%) and the city of Melilla. CDS got 4,12% in Catalonia, 5% in the Basque Country and 5,64% in Andalusia as worst records.

By province CDS won a plurality in Ávila (41,3%) and pretty good results in Segovia (23,48%), Las Palmas (21,14%), Salamanca (18,3%), Valladolid (16,97%), etcetera.

As for the PRD, it got only 0,96% nationwide (there weren't PRD lists in Catalan provinces because Roca was the CiU head of list). Only remarkable results in Balearic Islands (7,15%), because of Unió Mallorquina. Other than that, results in other provinces were pretty mediocre, polling above 2% in a handful of them.

I recommend you my primary source for this kind of stuff, if you want more details of the 1986 elections: Archivo Electoral del Ministerio del Interior.

http://www.infoelectoral.mir.es/min/

Forgot to thank you for confirming my impressions of ERC, and the corrections re ICV-EUiA & SI.

I forgot to mention the Candidatures of Popular Unity (CUP), which have 3 seats in the Catalonian Parliament. The CUP is a far-left separatist group, advocating for socialism and the Catalan Countries (Països Catalans), i.e., the three catalan-speaking regions (Catalonia, Valencia and the Balearic Islands) in a sovereign state independent from Spain. It's a party built from the base, that is to say, it works with assemblies. I know that some IU's hardliners envy the CUP for its 'true leftism'.

[Velasco]

You need 20 posts to copy links on the Forum, if I'm not wrong.

[apparently I can't quote links nor images]
It's interesting the high support in Gran Canaria, I suppose it has to do with the fact that most CC people come from the UCD or CDS, as in more centrist than PP in Canarias, and yet more corrupt too. Also, talk to the Valencians about Països Catalans, they'll love that

Well, I live in the Canaries and in my perception PP isn't less corrupt than CC, specially in Gran Canaria, the blue's stronghold in the islands. I could mention some corruption cases -mainly urbanistic affairs- in several municipalities governed by PP, but it might be a bit boring and off-topic. 

The Canaries were UCD strongholds in the 1977 and 1979 elections. In Las Palmas UCD won 5 seats out of 6 in 1977 and 4 in 1979. Most of the groups that later in the early 90's became the Canarian Coalition (CC) were made with former UCD politicians. CDS, of course, with the Gran Canarian Lorenzo Olarte, stronger in Gran Canaria. However, the main group inside CC was the AIC (Agrupaciones Independientes de Canarias), a conglomerate of 'independent' insular parties (mainly mayors elected in UCD lists, like Manuel Hermoso in Santa Cruz de Tenerife) which was stronger in the western islands and, above all, in Tenerife (ATI). In the eastern Canaries (Las Palmas), the main groups inside CC were Centro Canario (formerly CDS) and Canarian Initiative (ICAN), the later was the fusion of  the left-wing nationalist AC-INC and ICU, the former incarnation of IU in the islands lead by José Carlos Mauricio. Also AM, a left-wing insular party in Fuerteventura, and other insular parties linked with the AIC.

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There are differences between UPyD and CDS in terms of provincial voting. I'll post an UPyD map of the 2011 elections later on, if you want to. For example, CDS performed better than UPyD both in Catalonia (it won 1 seat in Barcelona) and the Basque Country, even when CDS was relatively weak in these regions. To the contrary, Sevilla was one of the weakest provinces for CDS in 1986 (3,6%), while UPyD managed to get a 5,5%, above the party's national average (4,7%). Castilla y León was one of the best regions for UPyD in 2011, though with lower percentages, but not the Canaries.

On the other hand, even when there are some similarities between CDS and UPyD, because both parties are perceived in the centre of the political spectrum, they are not equivalent parties. Neither is the failed PRD project, which was lead by CiU's Miquel Roca and comprised groups like Unió Mallorquina, a nationalistic party of the Mallorca island.

[Velasco]

CC guys aren't crystal water in many cases. However, people close to PP use to criticize CC's corruption when the party is in the opposition. I don't think CC is worse than Valencian PP or Matas' PP, on the other hand.

Of course the UPyD stance in the centralization/decentralization axis is pretty different. On the other hand, the 'operation Roca' was an attempt made from the periphery. By that time CiU, lead by Pujol, was still pretending to reform Spain and the Catalan separatists were a minority. I forgot to mention that PRD didn't run lists in Galicia too. There the PRD's reference was Coalición Galega, also former UCD members. The party was strong in rural Galicia, Lugo and Ourense provinces. They retained some clientelar webs, apparently. CG gained 1 seat for Ourense in the 1986 elections. On the other hand, CDS performed well in the Atlantic provinces, gaining 2 seats, one in La Coruña and another in Pontevedra.

Nowadays Galicia is one of the UPyD's 'black holes' (another big difference with CDS). I think it's no so strange and the reason may be sociological, alongside with the lack of popularity of the centralist speech in certain places. The vote for UPyD is mainly urban and Galicia is one of the less urbanized regions in Spain. On the other hand, apparently centralization is not so unpopular in Galicia, according to some polls (I'll have to look for them). The crisis is boosting centrifuge tendencies (separatism vs centralism).

UPyD in 2011. In the grayish provinces the party received less than 2,5% of the vote; in  Girona, Lleida, Lugo and Ourense, less than 1%.



The PSC's case is pretty desperate, yes. They are absolutely disorientated right now, and solution seems pretty complicated. It will be a terrible mess for the next leader of PSOE, I guess.

[Velasco]

The 'autonomic barometer' made by CIS, released in May 2013 (interviews were made between September and October 2012, in coincidence with the Diada demonstration in Barcelona) showed a boost of centralist tendencies in the Spain's interior regions, particularly strong in Madrid and Castile.

http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/2940_2959/2956/Es2956_mapa_html.html

The question #12, referred to the organization of the State, showed that centralism had a 56,5% support in Madrid, 56,2% in Valencia, 55,6% in Castilla y León and 55,2% in Castilla-La Mancha. Three years before, percenteges were much lower (around 38% in Madrid). In Galicia 31,4% was in favour of more centralism and 49% of the status quo. Obviously results in Catalonia were quite different, with 13,9% supporting centralist options (suppression of the autonomous communities or less devolution), 16,7% the current system, 27,7% in favour of more devolution and 37,4% supporting the chance for the regions to get independence. In the Basque Country centralist options had a very little support (5,8%).

CEO poll in Catalonia:

ERC 38-39 seats; CiU 35-37; PSC 16; PP 13-14; ICV-EUiA 13-14; C's 12; CUP 6.

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20130620/54376822932/erc-ganaria-elecciones-catalunya-ceo.html

As for Madina:

Also, it seems like poor Madina is being hunted, check today's Antena3 news or this: elmundo dot es slash elmundo slash 2013 slash 06 slash 20 slash espana slash 1371744423 dot html [agg, let's see if I can reach 20 posts ASAP, this is tiring]

I checked the news here:

http://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/madina-niega-valenciano-rodriguez-liderar-corriente-critica-partido_2013062000171.html

Apparently Madina needs to be cautious if he wants to have chances in the next socialist primaries and I guess that he's not in an easy position right now. On the other hand, if he's really critic with PP-PSOE recent agreements, at least there's a little hope for PSOE.

[Velasco]

In my opinion that collision between opposite tendencies only can be solved by a sort of asymmetric federalism, given that peripheral regions want more devolution and the interior regions a stronger central administration. That's why I'm not fond with UPyD stances for centralism or symmetric federalism.

As you say, the politicization of the Justice is a great trouble. Regarding territorial conflicts, in my opinion the 2010 sentence by the Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute was, to a great extent, based on political criteria and has damaged very much. The depoliticizing of the high courts is an urgent matter and not very easy to lead to term.

I don't have an opinion on PSOE's proposals on Justice right now. Of course, if it leads to a Reino de Taifas regime, I would be against. On the other hand, decentralization of Justice is not bad per se, it depends on how it's expressed.

[Velasco]

From Nanwe (he can't post links):

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=35layhy&s=5

Salud y República!

Ah, the old complaint about our imperfect electoral system . I think we can discuss election-related issues on here but, on the other hand, certain topics Nanwe introduced in the discussion would be better in a proper thread, in the International General Discussion board. I didn't answer all the topics and I have my own opinion, of course. The question is that we are too few Spaniards on here and I'm not sure if people from abroad cares too much. I'm Republican at heart and, by the way, I've been reading something really sad about the period of the Civil War (Max Aub's Campo del Moro and Campo de los Almendros, to be precise). I'd like that Salud y República was something more than a mere slogan.

[Velasco]

andi, do you happen to know about Portuguese politics? I'm doing a project about a Spain including Portugal but basically I know nothing of Portuguese politics .

Just generic, I'm far from knowing politics in Portugal in depth. Spaniards are not in the habit of paying too much attention to their neighbours. What kind of project is yours?

As for electoral systems, the only that I like is the mixed-member proportional representation (Germany, New Zealand). Not so popular in Spain, I only heard some vague allusions from Rubalcaba and certain nasty proposals by Aguirre and her butler successor about introducing single constituencies in Madrid.

[Velasco]

CUP 6.

Doubled.

I don't want to cool down your enthusiasm, but CEO (a sociological institute depending on Catalan government) predicted 70 seats for CiU, the governing party, and finally only got 50. Another recent poll gives the CUP only 3 seats. Both polls coincide in stating that the center-left separatist ERC is gaining ground at the expense of the center-right sovereignist CiU and it's likely surpassing it. I think it makes sense in the current context, but I'd be cautious about the polls. On the other hand, if you don't sympathise with separatism, wouldn't be ICV-EUiA a better option for you?

[Velasco]

I like MMP too. But it would require changing the Constitution (unless the single constituencies were based on the provinces, in which case, they wouldn't be single-member ones and I don't know to what extent opening up the Constitution is such a good idea.

As Julius Caesar told to Brutus: "You too my son?" It's amazing how many followers of the doctrine Rajoy are around. The only way of reforming Spain is "opening" that sacred and incorruptible Constitution.

I also looked at Gonzalez's proposal and although I like MMP, the proposed constituencies were not even close in their population. It gave the various neighbourhoods of Madrid too much weight (or  rather the large cities, like Alcala not enough)

That's why I said Aguirre's minion proposal was "nasty".

[Velasco]

Well, I hadn't monarchy in mind in the previous post. I see pretty useless replacing our King for a President without making some fundamental changes. One thing is to be Republican at heart and another is to think that a Republic is the magic medicine that will cure all our diseases.

Of course a reform would be messy and scary, because the constitutional design was made in a way that changes are extremely difficult. However, see how PSOE and PP arranged a little but significant reform in our Constitutional text when Zapatero was under pressure by the infamous Troika.

I'm afraid that you are a loyal UPyD supporter and I don't like very much the idea of re-centralization. If the idea behind giving back the Spain's Government competences on Education is replacing one nationalist view with another, sorry, I'm not very enthusiastic with that perspective. The problem with such views is that they pretend to apply homogeneity in an extremely heterogeneous country. As for Healthcare, in fact many regions didn't want the competences when Aznar decided to give them; "café para todos" ("coffee for everybody"), said Pujol. This don't apply for Catalonia, Basque Country and other places. It's not viable forcing regions with a great will of self-rule to give back power. On the other hand, I doubt it would be desirable, maybe with the exception of regions where people want less autonomy. Just food for separatism and unrest, and I think waters are troubled enough right now.

Oh, and there is that nasty administrative reform that Rajoy is proposing, without changing nothing important and hoping that regions will make the dirty work, because in many cases competences are transferred. 

This discussion is going too off-topic. Should I start another thread?

[Velasco]

     As I understand it, they initially intended to only apply the name of "autonomous community" to Galicia, Basque Country, and Catalonia, but that idea fell by the wayside when other regions decided that they wanted similar recognition. Considering the differing traditions of the different regions, I think it would be good to revisit the issue of recognizing those regions that are more culturally independent from Madrid than the norm.

Initially, the 1978 Constitution established the notion of a Spanish nation but simultaneously it was recognizing the existence in her bosom of nationalities and regions. Nevertheless, it didn't establish different types of regions or " autonomous communities ", simply it established different terms for autonomy, admitting self rule first for the regions which approved autonomy statutes in the 30s (II Republic): Catalonia, Basque Country and Galicia. Andalusia celebrated a plebiscite in 1980 to accede to the autonomy by the so called " fast route " ("vía rápida") and to be recognized also as " historical nationality "; alongside with the aforementioned three "historical" regions, it got autonomy before the rest of Spain. There was the possibility of certain 'asymmetry' giving more competences to the "historical" regions, if they demanded it. It was established a Constitutional Court which would act as a regulatory agent of the future decentralized state. Finally, the Constitution advocated for giving autonomy for all regions in the future.

As to decentralisation: An interesting and worthwhile target may be regional and local transport (especially the rail bound part). Inspired by the example of the French TER, German rail reform included transfer of local and regional lines (essentially everything that is not high-speed or freight-only) to the States, giving them full network ownership as well as authority to regulate (and typically also the duty to subsidise) local and regional traffic. This has lead to the reopening of many lines that had been closed in the 1980s, and, together with quality improvements pushed through on State level, resulted in steadily rising passenger numbers.
I am not sure if decentralising healthcare is a good idea. The supply side is fine (but isn't that already quite decentralised in Spain?). However, if you start to also decentralise the revenue side / financing mechanisms, you are potentially making things more complicated for larger companies and especially international investors, and that is not necessarily what Spain needs right now. 

From what I was trying to find out, a majority of regions have assumed railroad competences on the paper. Seemingly only Catalonia, the Basque Country, Valencia and Balearic Islands have assumed them in the practice, and only in the cases of the narrow-gauge railroads (FEVE) and suburban trains, but not railroads attached to the national network (RENFE), even when routes don't trespass regional limits.  These constraints are due to the "decrees of transfer" issued by the Spain's government. I agree on what it would be a great idea giving regions more competences to revitalize local lines, because it has been put a great emphasis in the construction of high-speed rails to the detriment of conventional railroad.

As for Healthcare, financing mechanisms are a terrible mess , I'll try to give an answer later on.

[Velasco]

Which is kind of my position. I am in theory a republican, but at the moment the status quo in regards to the monarchy is fine by me, probably make Juan Carlos abdicate and clean it up, but obviously, a Republic is still too much politicized (reds, commies, workers' paradise, if Franco raised his head, blah, blah, blah)

I said a Republic, not a 'People's Republic'. There are a lot of myths regarding our last Republican period, the Civil War and blah, blah, blah.

Well that was the idea. The whole 1977 democracy was designed to avoid the many many flaws of the 19th century liberal state and the 2nd Republic political processes. In fact even at the times of 1976's Ley de asociaciones politicas speech by Suarez (as Secretario General del Movimiento under Arias-Navarro) was unequivocal about 'a state that neither recognizes nor persecutes contrary political ideas, but rather ignores them altogether, would be too similar to the 19th century liberal state' Ofc liberal being a dirty word back then.

I'm aware of the difficulties and fears existing in that period. I only state that reform mechanisms are difficult and, since some time ago, several things might have been changed. If you remember, Zapatero proposed some light reforms (Senate, dynastic succession, etc.) which remained in the booth. I don't know if I must blame him or the polarized environment in Zapatero's legislatures (the Right was basically trolling since 2004).

Don't be afraid Secondly, I'm not a 'loyal UPyD supporter' and indeed I defend federalism, not the current messy system. But my main concern about decentralization is that many communities are one party regions (PSOE misrule in Andalucia, PP misrule in Valencia) and that will politicize education. Nevertheless, education is ok by me, as well as it is, to a lesser degree, healthcare. Healthcare is just too damn expensive to run at a regional level, except for big autonomies like Madrid, Catalonia or Andalucia. My main problem is that we have some regions that make no sense due to being too small (yes, I'm pointing at you, Cantabria, Asturias, La Rioja and perhaps Murcia) or too big (Andalucia).

In any case a small amount of recentralization is rational in economic aspects. For example, the recent Ley de unidad de mercado, which will force all CCAA to have same regulations for products and licensing. It's common sense, you can't have 17 different standards within a country for that.

A different system of regional equalization needs to be set up. The current one makes sense, from what I've read, Valencia gives money to the Vascongadas (just wanted to say it like that ) when the Basques are one of the richest regions in Spain and all because of the silly fueros, an absolute feudal anachronism.

Also, I'm not a Spanish nationalist, in fact, I am not a fan of nationalism, although it seems as if being Catalan nationalist was more acceptable than Spanish (well, Franco and what not) but to me, it's as silly and as bad.

My apologies for that. You have coincidences with UPyD party line, but this doesn't make you a 'loyal supporter' (it wasn't a derogatory characterization, in any case). I didn't mean that you were a Spanish nationalist or something (sorry again), but I fear that some supporters of a certain re-centralization might be in that line (Wert's attempts on Educational reform, for example). By the way, and it's a great coincidence, today I read an article by Rosa Díez in El País where she states her views on the "state of the autonomies" and advocates for a Constitutional reform (here, she differs from you) to establish an 'egalitarian' federalist formula with 'closed' competences. I agree in some parts with her diagnosis, but when she reaches the question of peripheral nationalism... Well, I was never a fan of raising the speech in terms of "appeasement".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/06/24/opinion/1372091894_899657.html

(The article is in Spanish)

I think almost everyone in Spain is aware of the need of making a broad reform of the system. Some examples that you mention are clear signs of disfunctionality. On the other hand, I think subjects like educational policies shouldn't be exclusively on the government's (regional or central) hands. Indoctrination may come from both sides. I think it's more a question of making society participate in the design of the educational programs, and putting on experts' hands, rather than on the politicians', some questions like how we must teach History.

As for the anachronic fueros, my position right now is surprisingly close to the one that PSOE's Federal Executive stated recently: Concierto is not debatable, Cupo is revisable. 'Concierto económico' is the special fiscal regime in force in the Basque Country and Navarre. 'Cupo' is the amount of money that Basque and Navarre treasures give to the Spain's Exchequer. If you pretend to abolish the fiscal particularities in those northern regions, you'll probably have to face a revolt. Nearly all Basques and Navarrese are foralistas, including supporters of 'national' or 'non Basque' parties. I think it's more a question of pragmatism and common sense rather than an 'appeaser' attitude.

As for Revilla, he's a bit of a populist, but I find him friendly and harmless.

[Velasco]

Sorry for the delay, PiT. I think Spain is highly decentralized nowadays, but the model needs to be redesigned because of some malfunctions. On one hand regions have tried to reproduce the structure of the central government in their territories, on the other hand the Spain's government mantains an administrative structure in areas where competences have been transferred. A clarification is necessary. Also, it's important to find the way of handling the differentiated identities in the periphery, which is complicated.

[Velasco]

Some maps of different Spanish parliamentary elections in Catalonia. There are four provincial circumscriptions: Barcelona, Tarragona, Girona and Lleida. There exists an administrative subdivision called comarca, which is a group of municipalities. In the Catalan Electoral Archive it's possible to check all results of the Spanish elections since 1977 at all levels (regional, provincial, comarcal and municipal).

Leading party in 1977-1982 elections



In the 1977 and 1979 there was a remarkable atomization, both in the global results and in the geographical distribution. In the 1977 elections CiU didn't exist. CDC ran in a coalition called Democratic Pact for Catalonia (PDPC) with Partit Socialista de Catalunya-Reagrupament (PSC-R), the National Front of Catalonia (FNC) and the Democratic Left of Catalonia (EDC). UDC ran in a coalition called Union of the Center and the Christian Democracy of Catalonia. In 1979 CDC and UDC joined in Convergence and Union (CiU). PSC-R merged with PSC-Congrés and PSOE into the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC); EDC splitted in 1978 in two wings, one merged with CDC and other with ERC; FNC survived until 1982, running in coalition with ERC in the 1979 elections.

In 1977 PSC-PSOE won the elections in Catalonia with 28.55% of the vote, winning 15 seats. The Unified Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSUC), the PCE counterpart in Catalonia, came second with 18.31%, winning 8 seats. UCD (16.91%) and PDPC (16.88%) came behind, but winning more seats than PSUC (UCD 9, PDPC 11) due to malapportionment and the geographical distribution of their vote. UDC got 5.67% (2 seats); ERC and allies 4.72% (1 seat) and the Fraga's People's Alliance (AP) 3.55% (1 seat). 

By that time PSUC vote was highly concentrated in Barcelona and its industrial periphery (with highest peaks at Baix Llogregat and Vallès Occidental), although the party performed strongly in the Tarragona province (especially in Tarragonès and Montsià) and in interior comarcas like Segrià (includes Lleida city), Bages or Berguedà. PSUC got 7 seats in Barcelona (19.85%) and 1 in Tarragona (16.37%), but couldn't win seats in Lérida (12.21%) and Gerona (10.10%)

Vote for PSUC in 1977 (2.5% scale):



PSUC, which was living through strong internal tensions, sank in 1982, obtaining only 4.61% and 1 seat. The pro-Soviet Party of the Communists of Catalonia (PCC), splitted from PSUC in 1981, got 1.37% of the vote. However, in the following year's municipal elections, PCC won some mayoralties in the Barcelona metropolitan region.

A very different landscape. 2004, 2008 and 2011 General Elections:

[Velasco]

Is that some sort of old cultural divide between more pure Catalanism (as in Gerona) and Lérida and Tarragona that the latter more inclined to vote UCD? I know UCD avoided the españolista message that AP/PP used/s and indeed supported autonomy to a degree, but it's quite spectacular the collapse of the non-nationalist right in Lérida from '79 to '82, nonetheless.

Perhaps the existence of Centristes de Catalunya (Centrists of Catalonia, CC), that was an UDC's split and made a coalition with UCD in the 1979 elections might explain the strength of UCD in some rural Catalan comarcas (counties).

CC was lead by Antón Cañellas, formerly the UDC leader. UDC was divided between Catalan nationalists and the Cañellas faction. The latter wanted to create a big centrist Catalan party that was the equivalent of the Bavarian CSU, whereas Adolfo Suárez's UCD would be the equivalent to the CDU in the rest of Spain. Cañellas was the CC-UCD candidate in the 1980 Catalan election. Finally Jordi Pujol and CiU became in the Catalan CSU, though there wasn't a CDU beyond the Ebro river (remember the 1986 election and the failure of Miquel Roca's project).

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centristes_de_Catalunya-UCD

I'll address the rest of your posts, here and in the JP Morgan's thread, later on (I need to take my time and now I'm in a hurry). I'll give a reply in a single post here, just to 'centralise'

[Velasco]

After seven months, new updates with regional elections.

This map shows the combined strength of the nationalist forces in the Galician parliamentary election held in October 2012. The Galician Left Alternative (AGE)*, a coalition between Anova (BNG split led by Xosé Manuel Beiras), EU (United Left in Galicia), Equo (greens) and the Galician Ecosocialist Space (a little BNG split) was the big surprise of this election, getting 13.9% of the vote and 9 (+9) seats. The Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) got 10.1% (-5.9%) of the vote and 7 (-5) seats. Compromise for Galicia (CxG), a new coalition made by some BNG splinters (the socialdemocratic Mais Galiza was the most important) and small center-right regionalist forces, only got 1% of the vote.

*_{Including IU and Equo, two national forces, AGE was a coalition between Galician independentists, nationalists and federalists}

Discarding the vote from abroad, the three nationalist forces got 25.16% of the votes cast in Galicia. The AGE was particularly strong in the urban centers, displacing PSOE from the second place in A Coruña (AGE 20.6%; PSOE 19.5%; BNG 7.6%) and Santiago de Compstela (AGE 21.8%; PSOE 16.5%; BNG 8.5%). To the contrary, BNG performed pretty bad in the most populated municipalities and only surpassed the AGE in Pontevedra (PSOE 18.8%; BNG 18.6%; AGE 13.1%), a nationalist stronghold with a BNG mayor. BNG results improved a bit in small and medium-sized towns (e.g. Carballo: BNG 19.9%, PSOE 16.4%, AGE 10.1%). The nationalist strength tends to be higher in the coastal Galicia, whereas it declines the interior countryside, specially in Lugo and Ourense provinces. Aside a few nationalist strongholds in Ourense (Allariz and A Bola, won by BNG; Vilar de Santos, the only municipality in Galicia won by the CxG), some areas where nationalism is stronger are the municipalities around El Ferrol (e.g. Fene, a mixed rural-industrial town where AGE got 24.3% and BNG 14.5%) and Santiago de Compostela (Teo has an Anova mayor and AGE got its best result in Galicia with 26.9%), the Barbanza region (SW of A Coruña province) and O Morrazo, a comarca placed in the north shore of the Vigo Ria with capital in Cangas (AGE 23.2%; BNG 15.3%), a town which economy is based on fishing and the manufacturing of tinned food and is traditionally a left-wing nationalist stronghold.

 

Here, results by party and district in the city of Barcelona in the Catalan elections held in November 2012. Soon, I'll make some maps of the city by quarter.



I've edited the maps of local and parliamentary elections of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia posted in pages 2 and 3 of this thread, using the same colour scale with 2.5% steps like the map above. Maybe, I'll post later Seville and Saragossa.

[Velasco]

Given that the result of the past EP elections marks some interesting trends -with an eye in the forthcoming municipal, regional and parliamentary elections in Spain- and I made some maps, I proceed to make an update for this thing.

Leading parties by province:



I have plenty of provincial maps, showing the territorial strength of the 10 lists which got representation in Strasbourg posted here:

http://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2014/08/03/elecciones-europeas-de-2014-en-espana/

Anyway, it'd be more interesting focusing on municipality, district or even neighborhood levels in certain places where key electoral battles are going to take place next year. I was making some Madrid maps and likely I'll do Barcelona as well.

2014 EP Elections in the Region of Madrid:



The boundary of the Madrid supermunicipality, which occupies a large section in the centre of the region, is lined in yellow and showed with its 21 inner subdivisions or districts.  

EDIT: Colour upgraded one tone. Source: MIR election archive, official results.

[Velasco]

Its very interesting, but while I can easily spot Vallecas and its surroundings as left-wing power zones, I can't determin if PSOE, Podemos or IU since their light shades are all the same. Could you possibly use colors easier to tell apart ?

It's an option, but there are too many parties in Spain and not so many colours. I could upgrade the scale one tone as well, so hopefully the purple (Podemos) could distinguish better from the red (PSOE). I'll think about that. In any case, Podemos won a plurality in the following two municipalities:

Rivas-Vaciamadrid: Located 15 KM to the SE from Puerta del Sol, in the centre of Madrid. It's one of the fastest growing municipalities in Spain (around 80k nowadays) and it attracts people from the capital and the metropolitan area due to high standards of living, environment and public services. The two bigger neighbourhoods were built by cooperatives linked to the two main Spanish labour unions: Covibar by CC.OO (traditionally linked to PCE) and Pablo Iglesias by UGT (PSOE). Note that the latter is named after Pablo Iglesias Posse (1850-1925), a printer who founded PSOE in 1879 and UGT in 1888. I don't have evidence that Pablo Iglesias Turrión, the leader of Podemos born in 1978, has family links with the elder socialist leader. As far as I know, he was named Pablo because his parents are socialist activists and Iglesias is a relatively common family name. Iglesias' girlfriend, the IU regional deputy Tania Sánchez Melero, is from Rivas. The town is very singular, sociologically speaking. It has a high standard of living and it appears to be a mixture of 'aristocratic' working class (the cooperative members) and progressive bobo population attracted from other places. Also, Rivas is known because of a natural park which covers 3/4 of the municipal area and the municipality was awarded for being "the most sustainable city". It has been governed by IU since 1991. Likely the most outstanding mayor was José Masa.

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rivas-Vaciamadrid

Results: Podemos 21.1%, IU 17.2%, PSOE 17.1%, PP 15%, UPyD 12.1%, Cs 4.3%, PE (Equo) 2.3%, Vox 1.8%.

La Hiruela: A small village (pop. 51 in 2013) in La Sierra Norte. The result was kinda weird: Podemos got 8 votes (29.6%), Vox 6 (22.2%), PP 4 (14.8%), IU 3 (11.1%), UPyD 2 (7.4%), PSOE and other two lists 1 each (3.7%).

IU won a plurality (21.4%) in Torremocha de Jarama (pop. 892 in 2013), located to the NE of the region in the Guadalajara province border.

The rest of the municipalities are PSOE pluralities, being the most relevant the 'red belt' municipalities located S of Madrid (Getafe, Leganés, Parla). PSOE pluralities were low in those working class towns (between 20% and 30%) and both Podemos and IU had high performances. Same in the southern districts in the Madrid municipality (I'll post a district map, which I hope it'll be clearer). I should expand on metropolitan municipalities in a later post.

Is the south-west Socialist stronghold Alcorcon? Also, what are the potential university districts and how do students tend to vote in Madrid?

This thread is a gold mine btw, really impressive work!

Thanks. I don't think so, since PP won a plurality in Alcorcón. The town is indeed to the SW of Madrid, but is contiguous to the capital and not in the SW fringe of the region. You can see the location of Alcorcón in Wikipedia:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcorc%C3%B3n

Likely that PSOE stronghold you are referring to is the rural municipality of Cenicientos, in the border with Toledo and Ávila provinces.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cenicientos

As for "potential university districts". I guess you are referring to places with a high student population, isn't it? I'll try to answer that later, since I have to search in neighbourhood results.

[Velasco]

This map is a projection. If the result of the next elections to the Madrid Regional Assembly in May 2015 was replicating the the EP elections result, the 129 seats would be distributed as follows:

PP 48, PSOE 30, Podemos 18, UPyD 17, IU 16.

An hypothetical left-wing alliance falls short of a majority by only 1 seat. PP would need 17 additional votes, which is precisely the number of seats the projection gives to UPyD.

The EP elections official result in the region of Madrid was: PP 29.98%, PSOE 18.95%, Podemos 11,38%, UPyD 10.59%, IU 10.57%, Cs 4.81%, Vox 3.67%, PE 2%.

With a little variation in the result, the allocation of seats may vary substantially. UPyD, for instance, placed 4th ahead of IU by a tiny 0.02% margin, winning one seat more than the left-wing party in the projection. Ciudadanos (Cs) is only at 0.2% of reaching the 5% threshold needed to get seats in the Regional Assembly; by surpassing it, the party could win at least 6 or 7 seats.

The main curiosity of this map is that projects the result into the electoral districts planned in a proposal of electoral reform made by the PP regional government, which intended to introduce a mixed-member proportional electoral system. The proposal only considers 43 electorates (1/3 of the total) and its application wouldn't affect the allocation of seats in the Assembly, according to this projection. It is unlikely to be passed, given that opposition parties are against and the bill needs a vote of 2/3 of the Assembly. The proposed districts follow municipal-district borders and don't have a similar population, although they give an idea of how it is distributed across the region. PP might win 33 districts, PSOE 9 and Podemos 1 (Rivas-Vaciamadrid).

[Velasco]

Results of the 2014 EP Elections in Madrid municipality by district and party:



Result in Madrid municipality, according to figures provided by the delegation of the government and the city council:

PP 32.68%, PSOE 18.19%, Podemos 10.6%, IU 10.37%, UPyD 9.7%, Cs 4.74%, Vox 4.24%, PE 2.24%.

Podemos, IU and Equo (PE) will likely run in a "civic front" called Ganemos ("Let's win") in the 2015 municipal elections, while Podemos might run in its own in the regional elections, if this autumn's Podemos foundational convention approves a proposal made by the Pablo Iglesias' team. Note that "Ganemos" coalition has potential to get more votes than PSOE.

Madrid is divided in 21 municipal districts, each one subdivided in several "administrative neighbourhoods". Summary of best and worst districts by party:

PP: Best: Salamanca 46.8%, Chamartín 46%, Chamberí 42.7%. Worst: Puente de Vallecas 18.2%, Villa de Vallecas 19%, Vicálvaro 20.7%.

PSOE: Best: Puente de Vallecas 29.3%, Villaverde 27.1%, Usera 26,2%. Worst: Chamartín 10.5%, Salamanca 10.9%, Chamberí 12.1%.

Podemos: Best: Vicálvaro 16.1%, Centro 16%, Villa de Vallecas 14.9%. Worst: Chamartín 5.7%, Salamanca 5.8%, Chamberí 7.5%.

IU: Best: Puente de Vallecas 16.3%, Villa de Vallecas 16%, Centro 14.8%. Worst: Chamartín 5.4%, Salamanca 5.7%, Chamberí 7.1%.

UPyD: Best: Vicálvaro 12.7%, Villa de Vallecas 12.2%, Barajas 11.4%. Worst: Centro 7.8%, Salamanca 8.2%, Chamberí 8.2%.

Ciudadanos (Cs) Best: Chamartín 6.8%, Barajas 6.3%, Salamanca 6%. Worst: Puente de Vallecas 2.4%, Usera 2.9%, Villaverde 2.9%.

Vox: Best: Chamartín 8.3%, Salamanca 8.1%, Chamberí 7.3%. Worst: Puente de Vallecas 1.4%, Villaverde 1.6%, Vicálvaro 1.6%.

PE (Equo) Best: Centro 5.6%, Arganzuela 3.7%, Retiro 2.7%. Worst: Villaverde 1.2%, Usera, Puente de Vallecas and San Blas 1.5%.

It's dubious that I'll have the time to make a neighbourhood map. Anyway I have the data downloaded, so if someone curiosity on a particular neighbourhood in Madrid...

Also, what are the potential university districts and how do students tend to vote in Madrid?

I'm afraid that you are not going to find "university district" patterns. I guess that's because students from other places living in student residences in Madrid don't vote there, unless they register as official residents. Also, students or university staff cannot afford high rent apartments in the affluent districts where are located many university campuses. It's possible that many of them live in Centro or in other cheaper districts or neighbourhoods, but I ignore if there's data avalaible on rented student apartments. For instance, Podemos won a plurality in the Embajadores (Lavapiés) neighbourhood belonging to the Centro district. Some universities (Carlos III, for instance) have campuses in working class municipalities such as Getafe.

The Complutense University is the most important higher educational institution in Madrid, measured in number of students. It's also a left-wing fiefdom and many members of the founding core of Podemos, including Pablo Iglesias, are teachers in that university. It has two campuses. The main campus is located the Ciudad Universitaria neighbourhood (Moncloa-Aravaca district) and includes several student residences.

The result in Ciudad Universitaria follows the general pattern of the Moncloa-Aravaca district.

PP 41.96%, PSOE 12.4%, UPyD 8.9%, Vox 7.3%, IU 7.2%, Podemos 6.8%, Cs 6.2%, PE 2.8%.

The second campus is located in Pozuelo de Alarcón (84k in 2013), a very affluent suburban municipality located west of Madrid and contiguous to the Moncloa-Aravaca district.

Result in the Pozuelo municipality: PP 41.8%, PSOE 11.3%, UPyD 10%, Vox 8.9%, Cs 7.8%, Podemos 6.3%, IU 4.8%, PE 1.8%.

It'd be illustrative searching in Google Maps the Ciudad Universitaria and the UCM Campus de Somosaguas in Pozuelo de Alarcón, Madrid (or the Carlos III campus in Getafe).

[Velasco]

I would be interested in the results of Lavapiés in Centro. My old stomping ground...

I guess you won't be surprised to know that your old stomping ground is a left-wing bastion. Lavapiés belongs to an administrative neighbourhood called Embajadores.

Embajadores (Centro): Podemos 20.14%, PP 19.5%, IU 16.73%, PSOE 16.51%, UPyD 7,15%, PE/Equo 6.24%, Cs 2.96%, Vox 1.72%. Valid votes cast: 14511.

It was the highest result for both Podemos and Equo in Madrid and the only one where the Pablo Iglesias list won a plurality in the EP elections. Besides, it was one of the strongest IU results with more votes than PSOE. Lavapiés is clearly leaning to the alternative/radical left.

Thanks for the maps, Dani. And you won't find "university districts... I study in the UAM and nobody who comes from other provinces votes here in Madrid.

I'm still waiting for your email in response to my last one

I've been once or twice in Ciudad Universitaria, but never in the UAM campus. Well, I can tell you the results in the nearby El Goloso neighbourhood, in the Fuencarral-El Pardo district. Perhaps you know the reason why UPyD, Cs and Vox are so strong there.

PP 30.9%, UPyD 15.23%, PSOE 9,99%, Cs 8.98%, Vox 8.77%, Podemos 8.3%, IU 7.6%, PE 2.48%. Valid votes cast: 5725.

I was thinking that I replied your last e-mail. Anyway, I can send you another Didn't I comment with you the results in La Castellana? You will adore them.

Castellana (Salamanca): PP 60.22%, Vox 11.1%, PSOE 6.56%, UPyD 5.82%, Cs 5.3%, Podemos 2.66%, IU 2.58%, PE 0.88%. Valid votes cast: 7145.

[Velasco]

Oh I briefly lived in Opañel in Carabanchel for one month. I imagine there the result was more conventional...

It was in the range of the Carabanchel district. PP plurality below the city average; PSOE, IU and Podemos slightly above average.

PP 30.67%; PSOE 21.59%; IU 12.55%, Podemos 11.28%, UPyD 8.65%, Cs 3.15%, Vox 2.63%, PE 1.74%. Valid votes cast: 10481.

LoL at La Castellana. I go through there almost every day, but didn't know it was such an ugly place. TBH, the Socialist Youth usually goes there to distribute propaganda. Maybe we should search another place... Which is the friendlier one for us in the centre-centre/north of Madrid?

La Castellana and Plaza de Colón are nodal transit points. I guess that's the reason why the Socialist Youth goes there to distribute leaflets. For obvious reasons, proselitism among residents in Castellana and Recoletos sounds like a waste of time. PP scored above 80% in La Castellana in the 2011 elections.

Recoletos (Salamanca): PP 57.15%, Vox 10.11%, PSOE 7.38%, Cs 6.45%, UPyD 5.85%, IU 3%, Podemos 2.94%, PE 1.33%. Valid votes cast: 6329.

The Vox Party came second in some Chamartín neighbourhoods, all of them obvious PP strongholds: El Viso (10.55%), Hispanoamérica (10.25%) and Nueva España (9.45%).

It's hard to find neighbourhoods north of the Madrid centre where PSOE scored above 20%. I'll make a summary of best neighbourhoods by district, including San Blas in the east periphery.

Centro (16.04% on average): No great differences between neighbourhoods. The best for PSOE were Embajadores (16.51%) and Justicia (16.4%).

Salamanca (10.95%): Fuente del Berro (15.16%).

Chamartín (10.53%): Prosperidad (13.77%).

Tetuán (17.2%): Almenara (21.2%), Berruguete (20.11%), Bellas Vistas (19.66%) and Valdeacederas (19.53%).

Chamberí (12.11%): Trafalgar (14.31%) and Arapiles (14.09%).

Fuencarral-El Pardo (16.25%): Barrio del Pilar (21.41%) and La Paz (18.58%).

Moncloa-Aravaca (13.4%): Valdezarza (18.33%).

Ciudad Lineal (17.68%): Pueblonuevo (21.81%) and Ventas (20.91%).

Hortaleza (17.48%): Pinar del Rey (21.04%) and Canillas (19.85%).

Barajas (16%): Aeropuerto (25.81%, plurality) and the Barajas old quarter (23.07%). Only 430 valid votes cast in the neighbourhood next to the airport.

San Blas-Canillejas (20.68%): Amposta (29.4%, plurality), Hellín (27.93%, plurality), Simancas (26.85%, plurality), Arcos (22.52%) and Rosas (21.52%).