Rick Santorum in Iowa

[Andrew1]

Finally, at this time in 2012 Santorum had 18% support in Iowa and still only squeaked out a victory; now he has 0.5%. A Santorum surprise, whether a win or just placing in the top five, is unlikely.

That was on the eve of the caucus. This year there's still a month to go. A month before the 2012 caucus, Santorum was only around 5%.

Still I don't think he'll surge this time. If anyone from the kiddie table is going to make a late surge in Iowa it's Huckabee, though still very unlikely.