Which Congressional races in 2018 are you most optimistic/pessimistic about?

[hopper]

Optimistic: VT
Pessimistic: WY

Seriously though, compared to what "conventional wisdom" on Atlas seems to be:

Optimistic: WV--I don't think Manchin is safe obviously, but I think he has a lot going for him.
Pessimistic: ND--not ruling this one out, but there are a lot of factors going against Heitkamp here.

WV-I think Manchin is pretty safe because he was a Governor in the State and he is an incumbent.
ND-I think Heitkamp is actually pretty safe. The state had elected Conrad and Dorgan so the state has a recent history of electing Democrat US Senators. Heitkamp is a good campaigner and she is very likeable.

[hopper]

Optimistic - MO.  I despise Claire McCaskill and it looks like Ann Wagner, who I like very much, is angling for a run.  And MO's 2016 results seem to indicate that the state might be gone for the Democrats, especially in a midterm environment.

Pessimistic - MT.  Doesn't look like we'll be fielding a strong challenge to Tester if Zinke goes to the cabinet and Tim Fox sits out to run for Governor in 2020.

MO-The Democrats can still be competitive in terms of state offices and maybe 1 of the US Senate Seats. As far as US House Seats go they have been not good in that area for the past decade or maybe more. I think the last time a Missouri Democrat "picked up" a House Seat from a Missouri Republican was somewhere in the late 80's/early 90's period.

MT-Nah I don't think Republicans will beat Tester since he is a good fit for the state as a Democrat.

[hopper]

I'm really bullish on our odds in 2018.  There are 10 Trump state Democrats running for re-election, and we only need eight for a filibuster-proof majority.

Well, I'll give you that MO & IN are likely GOP pickups, but ND, MT, & WV are solid Trump states that have popular Democratic incumbents, so who knows. The rest (MI, WI, PA, OH, & FL) look like a stretch to me. I see 2-5 GOP pickups, assuming the GOP can hold NV & AZ. That may increase if the popular DEM incumbents in WI or MI decide not to run for re-election (as opposed to the (popular) DEM incumbents in PA, OH, & FL, who've already decided to run for re-election).

Lol, in Ohio and Wisconsin, Brown and Baldwin, two die-hard fire breathing liberals, can't be too too popular. I already plan to donate at least a little to their opponents.

Politics doesn't operate on a one-dimensional spectrum like that.

True and Ron Johnson is more conservative than Baldwin is liberal although I like Ron Johnson.

[hopper]

@hopper: It's true that ND elected Byron Dorgan, but don't forget that there's a reason he retired in 2010. Polling showed him trailing Hoeven by as much as 23 points. I know that Cramer is no Hoeven and that 2018 will be no 2010, but I wouldn't say that Heitkamp is "safe" because of how well Dorgan and Conrad did in the past.

And regarding Tester... yeah, the man is a good fit for his progressive base in the state, but he isn't as moderate or popular as as many people here seem to believe. Montana Senate races are almost never complete blowouts, and neither will the one in 2018 be. Any Republican will start out with a poll deficit, but it should tighten significantly, unless someone like O'Neill is the nominee. Just because Zinke is no longer an option, doesn't mean Tester is safe. See also CO-SEN 2014. Montana is way too polarized for Tester to win decisively, even Bullock (who is much more popular than Tester) only managed to win by 4.

Well regarding ND Hoeven had an 85% Approval Rating as Governor of ND in 2010. Also, had Dorgan faced Duane Sand(R) he would have beaten him in 2010 despite the Republican Wave that year.

As far as 2018 MT Senate Race goes yeah the US Senate Races are pretty close like 1988(Burns defeated the incumbent John Melcher), 1996(Baucus defeated Rehberg) 2000: (Burns defeated Schweitzer), 2006:( Tester defeated the incumbent Burns) and 2012: Tester defeated Rehberg.

Tester is pretty popular at a 61% approval rating(a stat I dug up from Morning Consult.) I looked up at some DW-Nominate Ratings and Tester seems to be at the 35 yard line left of center so he is more Moderate than Liberal.

The 2016 MT Governors Race: Gianforti(R) was a highly regrarded opponent.

[hopper]

I'm the most pessimistic about ND, though I wouldn't be heartbroken to see Heitkamp lose. MO and IN are definitely going to be tough for Democrats as well, but I think a lot of Republicans are counting their eggs before they've hatched here. McCaskill and Donnelly aren't going to be pushovers. I'm also worried about OH, especially since I like Brown, and I think he's someone to watch for 2020 (though any chance he might have will obviously be gone if he loses.) Also, Democrats can't seem to catch a break in AZ, so I have a hard time seeing them pick up that seat, even in favorable conditions.

I feel pretty good about Wisconsin. Baldwin's a better candidate than many give her credit for, and WI really didn't magically become a Lean R state last year. It's a polarized swing state that pretty much comes down to turnout, which can be influenced by many things, including the sitting president's approval rating. Oops, meant to say WI is Titanium R.

Anyway, I actually feel pretty bullish about Tester, especially since Democrats have generally done better in statewide races there than other "red" states, and also because his opponent won't be Zinke. I think Nelson and Casey will be tough to take down as well. Yes, Nelson got very lucky in 2006 and 2012, but double digit victories are impressive in a state like Florida, and especially if Scott is his opponent, I like his chances. Nevada looks like a good pick-up opportunity for Democrats, and I'm not that worried about Michigan.

Not sure about West Virginia yet.

I do think Nelson will win again in a purple state since a Republican will be President in 2018. Michigan-I think somewhere down the line a Republican has a good chance to win a US Senate Seat there but not in 2018. Nevada is a wild card at this point. I like Heller but the demography of the state is what would keep me up at night if I was a National Republican Official.