What happens to the GOP if Cruz turns out to be Goldwater 2.0?

[hopper]

This isn't Goldwater 2.0. It's not even Dole 2.0, so they'll be fine.

Why are you comparing Goldwater to Dole? That's a strange comparison. Kasich is more like Dole in an idealogical sense than Goldwater was.

[hopper]

Here's a more Goldwater-esque result:

406: Fmr. SoS. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Sen. Joseph Manchin(D-WV) - 54.6%
132: Sen. Rafael Cruz(R-TX)/Rep. Louie Gohmert(R-SC) - 44.2%

Heck, Utah and Colorado won't be that far apart in PV.
Other: 1.2%

R-TX

[hopper]

That's exactly the same popular vote percentages as 1988 IIRC, actually.

Yeah but in reverse!

[hopper]

I know GOP has major demographics problems, but I actually think he could win and it has little to do with him.  The Democrats are taking a HUGE risk in essentially giving Hillary the nomination, which her favorability ratings keep falling and where many Democrats are already admitting they've had enough of her.  Bernie could also provide a rift within the party, which won't help.

If turnout is low, Cruz has a shot in some of those key states, which makes or breaks the GOP (i.e. FL, OH, etc).

Really? Moderate Voters would loathe Cruz if he were to get to the General Election.

[hopper]

This isn't Goldwater 2.0. It's not even Dole 2.0, so they'll be fine.

This.  And no way Republicans are losing the House with Cruz's rural/exurban turnout machine, the Democrats need Trump for that.  It would narrow substantially, but 225ish seats would be on lockdown.  An Ike-level win for Clinton over Cruz while Ryan keeps his perch is the 2nd best scenario for the GOP establishment after a Rubio win.  It gives them all the cover they need to coronate Ryan in 2020 and there's no risk of SCOTUS going Lochner and sending white populists running to the Dems.  There's a small risk of the latter with Rubio, but the establishment seems quite confident they can talk him into putting another Roberts on the court.

The guy that upheld ObamaCare twice?

[hopper]

I really don't see Ted Cruz losing by all that big of a margin. In a Clinton vs. Cruz race, the only Romney state that Clinton has a reasonable chance at picking up is North Carolina, while Cruz on the other hand, has a great chance at picking up Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio. Cruz will also perform very well in the South and get over 60% of the vote in most states in that region (he may even crack 70% in Oklahoma and West Virginia).

Oh yeah Hispanics in Colorado would love Cruz. Are you kidding? Iowa-He would not carry the state. Ohio-I don't see the GOP losing too much ground there in comparison to 2012.

[hopper]

Then they'll scream, "wasn't conservative enough", move on, try again in four years and repeat the same endless nonsense when their next candidate flames out. 

Romney didn't killed in the Electoral College because he wasn't conservative enough(even though he was too conservative for my tastes) he was killed because of his rhetoric at Immigrants Groups like Mexicans and Asians. Even Establishment Republicans were like how did we manage to lose Asians by 44 points?

[hopper]

Cruz = Coolidge 2.0 more than Reagan 2.0

I don't think Coolidge was not an obstructionist when President like Cruz is in the US Senate.

[hopper]

I don't think Cruz would be the equivalent of Goldwater.  The country is much more polarized now.  I would say a Republican in a national election has a floor of about 45 or 46 percent, about McCain's vote share in 2008.  I think it would be slightly worse in the electoral college than 2008.  I actually think Cruz would win North Carolina, because there is a big evangelical base there, and Georgia, but possible lose Missouri and Arizona. 

I think he lose NC but win MO, AZ, and GA.

[hopper]

Cruz = Coolidge 2.0 more than Reagan 2.0

I don't think Coolidge was not an obstructionist when President like Cruz is in the US Senate.

Coolidge was a governor.

Coolidge was an obstructionist when he was governor?

[hopper]

I think Trump is more likely to be Goldwater 2.0 than Cruz is right now it looks like.