When did Generation X outliberal the Baby Boomers?

[hopper]

The Baby Boomers were never 'liberal' in any real way.

Yeah but they voted for McGovern in '72.

[hopper]

Here's a nice chart.

Very cool!

American whites born 1937-1947 and then 1955-1978 have been consistently Republican.  Only the blip from 1949-53 and especially after 1981 have been majority Dem.  

The most Republican year cohort are whites born in 1964.  They were 14 in 1978 and 24 in 1988.  They became politically aware during Carter's presidency, saw the transition to Reagan and then cast their first presidential votes in 1984.

But those born from 1961-1975 are the most Republican.  After 1975, GOP falls to parity around 1980 and Dem support grows dramatically before plateauing from 1981-1986.  The most Democratic whites alive today were born in 1986 and 1987 with Dem support at least 52% from 1983 to the last year available in 1994.

Not surprisingly, the rate holds at 53% from 1983-1993 but falls for 1994ites.  Political consciousness often doesn't begin to form until 14 according to them.. They were 14 in 2008 and have little politically oriented memory of the all GOP rule from 2003-2007. (Really from 2001-2007)

To those born after 1994.... Trust me...there was nothing good about those times.  Iraq, the axis of evil, skyrocketing food and energy prices while Bush and co lie through their teeth saying things are better than ever...just look at the housing market......................

I literally couldn't watch Bush speak after 2005.  It made me cringe so bad that I actually couldn't listen to the man say a word.  By the time Katrina happened...

Did you forget how high gas prices were from 2010-mid 2014 under Obama? I don't notice food prices vary or going up more under Bush W. than under Obama's tenure.

[hopper]

2000, I believe, when Gore almost won Florida, eventhough he was suppose to have lost the election.

Younger latinos started to vote differently than their older generation parents, and Florida was a good example.

Younger Cubans you mean in Florida.

Most Hispanics are of Mexican descent in the US and they vote strongly Dem yes.

[hopper]

Radicalization of the left.

In 1992 and 1996, it was acceptable for older voters to vote for Bill Clinton. After all, he signed the "Defense of Marriage Act", and said in his SOTU address in 1996, "The era of big Government is over."

In 2000, it was possible for both George Bush and Al Gore to persuade both young and old voters. Yes, Gore leaned left and Bush leaned right, but both were moderate enough to be all-American Presidents acceptable to young and old.

Now, you have a President who seems to have ventured into the far-left territory. He would never say half the things that Bill Clinton said in the 90s. He supports everything from Government run healthcare to same-sex marriage. This may play well with young but older folks are completely disillusioned by it. He's crossed a metaphorical line. Had Bill Clinton done that in 1996, Bob Dole would have been swept into office.

Gay Marriage-Some Republicans support Same-Sex Marriage like Mark Kirk, Lisa Murkowski, and Rob Portman.

Government Run Health Care-I don't care for that except for Medicare but Medicare still gas its problems like paying doctors appropriately for their services.

1996-The Country was different demographically different then. Latinos were probably 6% of the electorate back then. Now they were 11% in 2012 and will be 13% of the electorate in 2016. On Top of that Non-Hispanic Whites keep on dropping off at a 2% clip turnout-wise in each presidential election since 1972. It doesn't help the GOP keeps on making Moderate White Voters mad in the Northeast and The Upper Midwest.

[hopper]

There's been some speculation that the very youngest Millennials might not be quite as liberal as the older Millennials. I've said before that this might be because of Quiverfull-style thinking taking off in the mid-'90s. Once, maybe 12 years ago, I saw an article that said the birth rate among conservatives was much, much higher than among liberals.

But I think the most recent exit polls showed that the younger Millennials actually are at least as liberal than the older Millennials, at least in some states.

Social Issues-Its more of a generational thing with the exception of Blacks who are mostly socially conservative no matter where they live or whites who live in the Deep South who are mostly evangelical.

[hopper]

Radicalization of the left.

In 1992 and 1996, it was acceptable for older voters to vote for Bill Clinton. After all, he signed the "Defense of Marriage Act", and said in his SOTU address in 1996, "The era of big Government is over."

So your argument is, seniors were safe to vote for him on his economically liberal platform in 1992 because they knew he would course correct in 1994 after the Republicans took over Congress.

Clinton ran as a "Centrist" not as a liberal in 1992. He ran on "Welfare Reform". I can't imagine a Democrat running on "Welfare Reform" now.

[hopper]

The Boomers voted for Reagan. They were anti-government because of combo Vietnam/Watergate angst and their parents were mostly New Deal pro-union generation.

So the boomers were McGovern/Reagan voters?

There's no evidence anyone voted for McGovern.

That's funny. Wasn't there a lady in NYC in 1972-1973(I read about this) that said I don't know anybody who voted for Nixon.

[hopper]

There's been some speculation that the very youngest Millennials might not be quite as liberal as the older Millennials. I've said before that this might be because of Quiverfull-style thinking taking off in the mid-'90s. Once, maybe 12 years ago, I saw an article that said the birth rate among conservatives was much, much higher than among liberals.

But I think the most recent exit polls showed that the younger Millennials actually are at least as liberal than the older Millennials, at least in some states.

You must realize that doesn't work like that.  Non-hispanic white births dropped in the 90s as minority births skyrocketed.  2/3 of Millennials voted for Obama while Baby Boomers were split 50/50...(Or 3/5 and fairly even in 2012).  Remember that infograph is whites only.  The overall trend in higher minority births and their fondness of Dems means those born in 1994 probably are the most Dem friendly overall, even if the overall Dem vote drops from 54% to 52% among whites.

We'll see in 2016 much more clearly if the trend turns more GOP after the 1994 cohort. But by using the age old method of extrapolating past trends onto your forecasts with a bit of wiggle matching here and there, it would be prudent to presume there will be at least moderation as the young increasingly have no memory of Clinton or even Bush's presidency.

Hispanic Births you mean. The Black and Asian Populations are not booming like the Hispanic Population is.

Pew Research had an infograph  from November of 2011 on how people 18-28 who grew up on both Bush W.'s and Obama's presidential(the infograph covers most of his first term):

2004: 14 points more Dem than the the national average.
2006:   6 more points Dem than the national average(People who grew up during Clinton's Presidency were 13 points more Dem at 19 points more Dem than the national average.)
2008:  26 points more Dem than the national averag
2010:  14 points more Dem than the national average(This is interesting people who grew up during Clinton who were 29-36 years old in 2011 voted the exact same average.)

[hopper]

Intermoderate and Madeleine broadly get it right. First off, the first wave of actual boomers (even if we don't call them so) were born in the 1940’s. They are essentially in their late 60’s and 70’s now and were in their 30’s during Watergate, during the oil crisis and during the ‘come down’ from the 60’s. As a cohort (and why these sorts of generational splits should be looked at with more care) the ‘boomers’ also include the children of ‘boomers’ (those born in the 60’s). Their economic security allowed them to settle young and start a family young. The big dividing line in America is the Depression/New Deal. You can see that in the older exit polls even during the Reagan years. If people experienced that as young adults or children it made a huge difference in how they aligned themselves politically until their dying day.

It is also worth noting that the boomers (both waves) fashioned the ‘bride of the GOP’; the religious right which as a movement was very much born from the boomers (and the reasons should be self-evident, as should the reasons why it’s now starting to fall apart) Over the past 30 years that’s probably shifted maybe 10-15% of the electorate towards the GOP and against voters economic self-interest.

Now it appears at this moment, that Millennials/Gen Y are disproportionately Dem voters. If you take cohorts now in their mid 30’s, they’ve voted in four presidential cycles (all relatively close in terms of vote share) and have generally voted Democratic from Gore through to Obama. They’ve lived through ‘the stolen election’, Iraq, economic downturn and huge changes in social attitudes. That electorate is also a lot less white and lot more connected than older generations. It’s a difficult nut for the GOP to crack.

Pew has done research that’s quite interesting. If you turned 18 under Roosevelt (and would now be in your late 80’s and beyond) compared with the national average since 1994, you voted more Democratic right through until you were too small to count. The ‘Silent’ generation, the first wave of post war  boomers who turned 18 under Truman/Eisenhower (actual ‘hippies’) have been generally been more Republican except in 2000.

Boomers ‘fracture’ internally depending on your age. Those who turned 18 during Kennedy/Johnson (and are now in their 60’) are more Democratic until 2000 and then shift to the GOP. Those who turned 18 under Nixon do something completely different. They are more Republican in 1994, but that’s it. They are more Democratic than the nation and indeed could be considered to follow the average of what the entire electorate did (2004 excluded) However those who reach 18 under Ford/Carter (and therefore start their families under Reagan) are solidly GOP as are the first wave of ‘X-ers’ who reach 18 under Reagan/Bush. Those who turn 18 under Clinton, the last wave of X-ers are solidly Democratic (except the 9/11 effect  in 2004) and those who turned 18 under Bush/Obama even more solidly.

So part of the reason why the Democrats have struggled to win national elections since the 60’s (Clinton was helped by a split vote) until Obama is precisely because there wasn’t a consistent block of voters who would stick with Dems year on year to replace those who lived during the Depression who were dying off. Now there may be.

I wonder why people who turned 18 during Kennedy/Johnson and Nixon kinda switched parties. What were the reasons behind this?