Explaining Republican Electoral Problem (Using Purely 2012 Election)

[hopper]

I think the R's have to rethink the map like another poster said on this forum. I would go heavy for the Rust Belt if I were an R strategist. Those states aren't solid D like a California is.

States like CT, and IL grew with the White Population growing with the rest of the state on the last census so maybe try to make inroads there maybe even a Maine. I would have said maybe a Massachusetts but the GOP is too out of touch as a national party in terms of social issues vs a Massachusetts.

States like MD, VA, and NJ would be hard to make inroads because in the last census the White Population didn't grow with the rest of those states and the Black Population grew with those states average in terms of growth. I also notice in states in the Deep South(MS, AL, and TN) the white population lagged behind the states average growth as the Black Population kept up with the state averages in the 2010 Census so maybe the Dems make inroads in the Deep South again sometime soon.

[hopper]

This is a map of where white voters were more liberal or more conservative than their national average in 2012:

Remarkably, this correctly predicts 47 states and DC.  And in VA Romney and McCain got the same % of white voters despite the national swing, so the white vote there could easily be left of the nation next time around.

So what's going on in Montana? Florida makes a lot of sense though.

Montana has voted for D's mostly for US Senate in recent memory with Baucus, Tester, and Melcher except for Conrad Burns(R) who served in the US Senate from 1989-2006. Montana has voted R's for their At Large US House for the last 16 years. The state can be a bit swingy with having an R Governor in the 90's and first half of the 00's and than switching to a D Governor from 2005-present I believe.