The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.
90% shading = 20 point or more gain in margin
70% shading = 10-20 point gain in margin
50% shading = 5-10 point gain in margin
30% shading = 1-5 point gain in margin
Grey = <1 gain in margin
I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year. The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats. It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this. Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.
Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa. Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.
I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.
Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!
New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Connecticut didn't move it all. I guess those states are as Dem as they can get in terms of a vote floor. Mississippi swinging Dem is a surprise too. Montana swinging Dem as much as did is a pleasent surprise too but the state has had 2 Dem Star Politicians in Schweitzer and Tester since the mid 2000's come into high office. Same thing with Alaska but they don't have any Dem politicians on the level of a Schweitzer or even a Tester.
Whats up with Texas swinging Dem?
