Volusia & Flagler have trended red but are by no means unwinnable — Nelson carried both in 2012, and both Obama and Crist held their opponents to under 50% in Volusia. If Dems hope for any kind of rebound with working-class white voters, this is the kind of seat where it needs to happen. Soderberg is an impressive candidate and has fundraised well, and with an iffy GOP field it'd be stupid not to target the seat. It's in the universe of Florida seats that are likely but not certainly R, along with the 3rd and most of the Tampa seats — because it's an open seat, it's probably more likely to flip than any of those (and a more likely Dem pickup than any FL seat besides the 18th and the Miami seats).
Safe R. Redistributing made it lean/Likely to Solid.
This is false, redistricting moved it about 7 points more Dem.
