State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Donerail]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

[Donerail]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

Do you think Taddeo can win the general? I use to like her but she has continued to lose.

I honestly don't know enough about the district. I'd bet against her just bc I assume there has to be something that caused her to come up short however many previous times (and Diaz is a sharp candidate for the GOP), but I honestly don't know enough about Miami to make a more educated guess.

[Donerail]

Pour one out for the DLP dynasty, out of power in Miami at long last. Perez wins HD-116 in a walk, Diaz wins SD-40 in something more like a brisk sprint.

[Donerail]

Special election will be happening in Florida's 58th House District (in northeast HIllsborough County) after incumbent Rep. Dan Raulerson (R) resigned because of back pain. Initially this looked like it may be competitive - it's a GOP-leaning seat that Trump won by ten, but Dems were recruiting a credible candidate in former Plant City Mayor John Dicks and do have a registration advantage. Dicks, however, decided not to run, and as he was the only candidate the local party had been "actively recruiting" it seems like the FDP is gonna punt on this race.

Meanwhile, in House District 44 (eastern Orange County), a seat Hillary won by 7, a special election will be happening on October 10th. Democrats nominated some dude Paul Chandler, but a recent lawsuit may throw him off the ballot. Candidates must live in Florida for two years in order to run for state office, and the lawsuit claims Chandler voted in Missouri in November of 2016.

[Donerail]

For context on the magnitude of that fundraising disadvantage:
McClure (R): $244k raised, $181k spent
Saadaldin (I): $20k raised, $10k spent
Zemina (L): $13k raised, $12k spent
Vasquez (D): $6k raised, $5k spent

[Donerail]

This is rather embarrassing for Florida Dems though. They have yet to overperform in a special to date, and I'm pretty sure that's the only state they're consistently underperforming Clinton in. They should just fire their whole leadership and bring in the people who run Virginia Democratic Party.

Cannot believe I'm going to go to bat for the FDP here, but. The FDP has only attempted to contest two races this year, the St. Pete mayoral election and the special election in Senate District 40 in southwestern Dade. In both, they faced two candidates who were much better fits for their electorates than Trump was: in St. Pete, that was popular former two-term Mayor Rick Baker, while in SD-40 it was State Rep. José Félix Díaz, whose state house district overlapped with much of SD-40. Conventional wisdom was that they'd lose both; they won both.

In HD-58 specifically, Democrats made a major effort to recruit former Plant City Mayor John Dicks. Dicks declined to run and, with no other credible candidates willing to run, the FDP wisely decided to punt on the race and save their (very limited) money.

[Donerail]

Compare the difference here. Florida Democrat, Trump +11 district, loses by 20. Tennessee Democrat, Trump +44 district, loses by just 2. Florida Democrats, please disband. Nelson and the Safe D district congresspeople can be independents.

It's not the Democratic label being toxic. It's about the idiots down there running people like an ex-convict or a Venezuelan national and a Missouri resident for winnable races and punting completely without a fight.

if you'd like to donate the money the FDP needs to effectively compete in every race i'd be happy to direct you to the relevant party officials

[Donerail]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/962743138786914305

Looks like Good is favored to win in FL HD-72 now.

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Florida dems are so incompetent that even registered dems are voting gop in this election.

that's not what the data says, dummy