FL-PPP: 2018. Nelson leads Scott by 4.

[Donerail]

Another thing I am surprised at is the Hispanic vote. Romney had an absolutely terrible performance among this voting group (lost it by 21 points). However, in all the recent polls, Hispanic voters are either leaning towards the Republican candidate (Rubio/Bondi) or slightly leaning towards the Democrat (Clinton/Murphy against Atwater) or tied (Atwater/Nelson vs. Scott lol) but it's nowhere near the blowout that Romney faced. I thought Hispanics are trending hard Dem, but this poll may be evidence that the opposite is true. It can't just be a sampling error because many polls (not just PPP) show this. Was Romney just such a terrible fit for Hispanics?

It's almost as if there might be some factor that causes Florida Hispanics to vote more Republican than Hispanics at a national level. Wonder what that could be...



Treating 'Hispanics' as a single unified group and ignoring the vast political differences between, say,  Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans is an poor method of analysis.

[Donerail]

Another thing I am surprised at is the Hispanic vote. Romney had an absolutely terrible performance among this voting group (lost it by 21 points). However, in all the recent polls, Hispanic voters are either leaning towards the Republican candidate (Rubio/Bondi) or slightly leaning towards the Democrat (Clinton/Murphy against Atwater) or tied (Atwater/Nelson vs. Scott lol) but it's nowhere near the blowout that Romney faced. I thought Hispanics are trending hard Dem, but this poll may be evidence that the opposite is true. It can't just be a sampling error because many polls (not just PPP) show this. Was Romney just such a terrible fit for Hispanics?

It's almost as if there might be some factor that causes Florida Hispanics to vote more Republican than Hispanics at a national level. Wonder what that could be...



Treating 'Hispanics' as a single unified group and ignoring the vast political differences between, say,  Puerto Ricans and Venezuelans is an poor method of analysis.

I know that, but Obama won Hispanics in Florida 60-39. In this poll, Rick Scott is winning them by three points. Does that mean Cuban Hispanics just didn't show up to vote in 2012? A 23-point drop can't just be explained by Romney's stupid comments...

Cubans typically vote at a rate above other Hispanic groups and so will be significantly overrepresented (relative to, say, Puerto Ricans) in a midterm.