Florida Megathread

[Donerail]

Just passing by to say I early voted on Saturday in Broward. Brought my sis who is just turned 18 and my mom. Polling site was busy.  There's more Scott signs than Scott voters in south florida. Three more for Charlie

I live up here in Palm Beach County, and I have seen a ton of Scott signs as well, and God knows this is not exactly Scott country .

I actually don't think I've seen any Scott signs, but if there's anywhere that's less Scott country than South Florida it'd be southern Pinellas.

[Donerail]

Dems held FL-68.

[Donerail]

SaintPetersBlog calls it a 'wolf ticket'

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[Donerail]

Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn looking at running for Governor.

He moved from Iowa?

Somewhere Midwestern - he was born in Illinois but graduated from Penn State in 1980 (moved here in '82).

[Donerail]

Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn looking at running for Governor.

He moved from Iowa?

Somewhere Midwestern - he was born in Illinois but graduated from Penn State in 1980 (moved here in '82).

Totally missed the joke

Congratulations on your ability to recognize repetition of the letter 'B'. Your kindergarten teacher must be proud.

[Donerail]

Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn looking at running for Governor.

He moved from Iowa?

Somewhere Midwestern - he was born in Illinois but graduated from Penn State in 1980 (moved here in '82).

Totally missed the joke

Congratulations on your ability to recognize repetition of the letter 'B'. Your kindergarten teacher must be proud.

A bit snarky

Hey, if you're gonna be funny on the Florida thread, at least be funnier than what we already do.

[Donerail]

Always interesting to see how much of the Panhandle/North Florida/(not sure what you call the central swampy bit nobody lives in) is still run by Dixiecrats.

[Donerail]

https://twitter.com/mattgaetz/status/593884696980762624

Classy.

99% sure it'll be taken down soon.

Still up! Gaetz has taken fire from Latvala over it, and Crisafulli had to send out a tweet calling Gaetz "an agitator, but not a racist".

For whatever it's worth, the Governor is calling on the Legislature to stay until a budget is passed. The Senate is already discussing convening a special session to do that, while the House is not interested in either of those options. The Democrats, meanwhile, are suing the House for ending early.

[Donerail]

Jane Castor, Tampa's first female and first openly LGBT police chief, has changed her registration to Democratic. Could be an interesting mayoral candidate a few years down the road.

[Donerail]

Jane Castor, Tampa's first female and first openly LGBT police chief, has changed her registration to Democratic. Could be an interesting mayoral candidate a few years down the road.

And who she was before?

Republican.


Also, Mary Mulhern, a former member of the Tampa City Council, is considering running in FL-13. She would be the third Tampa-based candidate Dems have attempted to run in FL-13 in as many years. Like the previous two, she will not win.

[Donerail]

Has there been any movement on a referendum to move gubernatorial elections to presidential years? I heard about it back in december.

All's been quiet on that measure since then. There's a possibility of it getting on the ballot, but that depends on how much the Dems advocate for it.

[Donerail]

Jane Castor, Tampa's first female and first openly LGBT police chief, has changed her registration to Democratic. Could be an interesting mayoral candidate a few years down the road.

And who she was before?

Republican.


Also, Mary Mulhern, a former member of the Tampa City Council, is considering running in FL-13. She would be the third Tampa-based candidate Dems have attempted to run in FL-13 in as many years. Like the previous two, she will not win.

So is David Jolly just going to become a long term incumbent in a neutral district now?

Who knows? He hasn't announced yet, either, and rumor has it that he's seriously interested in Rubio's seat.

[Donerail]

Darden Rice is rumored to be interested in the FL-13 race.

[Donerail]

Darden Rice is rumored to be interested in the FL-13 race.

This probably doesn't matter now - Dem candidate Eric Lynn posted a haul over $400K this past quarter.

[Donerail]

State Supreme Court orders a redraw of eight Congressional districts, including FL-13 and FL-27.

[Donerail]

If this means Corrine Brown remains and Gwen Graham goes the ruling will be deeply disappointing. If the new FL-05 elects Graham that'd be a dream come true.

[Donerail]

Jumping on the Graham for Senate 2018 bandwagon now.

[Donerail]

So, can the Republicans appeal this to the U.S Supreme Court so as to delay its implementation until 2018?

No. The Florida Supreme Court is the final arbiter of Florida law, including the Florida Constitution's Fair Districts Amendment.

[Donerail]

The best-known politician in the county running in a district that went for Obama by ten points in 2012, and Republicans are cheering? What is wrong with y'all?

Look, I know I'm the forum's resident Crist hack, but this is Pinellas County. This is where Charlie Crist got his start in politics, and it's probably the only county that Crist won while running as a Republican, independent, and Democrat. People know him here, people like him here, and you could not draw a Congressional seat more tailor-made for Charlie Crist than a new St. Pete based FL-13. St. Pete voters love Charlie, in a way that the rest of the state doesn't. I'd understand your laughter if he was considering running in Orlando or Miami, but this is St. Petersburg. D+1.

[Donerail]

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

[Donerail]

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.

[Donerail]

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

[Donerail]

Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

He didn't campaign exclusively in Pinellas county. There's a difference between winning a congressional district or county in a Gubernatorial race and winning it on a Congressional level.

No, but Crist's strength in Pinellas relative to his performance in the rest of the state, particularly as a trend over several elections, indicates that he has a natural base here that'll boost him in any Pinellas race.

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.

I saw completely different projected maps of the district on DKE. And it wasn't majority Black, BTW - about 45% White and 45% Black

The Legislature is still the one that gets to redraw the lines. If they see a chance to take out Graham, they'll do it. It's possible to draw an African-American majority district that doesn't touch Graham's, but this is an opportunity to gain a seat to make up for likely losses elsewhere (FL-13, FL-10).

[Donerail]

I wonder if there's any chance the legislative Republicans will draw a one-precinct-wide connector from Tampa to the solid Democratic section of Pinellas County just to keep Jolly safe without "crossing Tampa Bay."

Can't see that flying with Fair Districts - the court will just strike it down again.

[Donerail]

Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.