Florida Megathread

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2.) Latino male and former State Rep in Carlos Lopez-Cantera.

That's historic man !

In a state that's already elected a Hispanic governor (in 1986), not particularly.

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Just another day in Florida.

Still, it'd be funny if he got convicted.

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Crist flip-flopping again eh ?

Scott's still hammering him with negative TV ads

Crist, so far as I can tell, never issued any kind of statement on medical marijuana before the past few months.

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Omar Khan will serve as Crist's new campaign manager.

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Fmr. Gov-for-like-a-week-after-Chiles-died Buddy MacKay has endorsed Nan Rich.

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Neither Sink nor Smith nor Nelson nor Iorio nor Dyer nor Brown nor Buckhorn are running. We have no other options.

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lolwashingtontimes.

The important story here is the time Crist didn't sell a judgeship.

I'll hopefully be working a local State House/State Senate campaign, but if Crist needs help, I wouldn't turn him down.

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Yes, Scott can't win this off his personality, but he's got the money on his side. Crist's campaign hasn't exactly been top notch, either.

Crist outraised Scott last month and has put together a book tour and is polling well. There's a pretty solid campaign operation in place.

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At least two criminals in new Scott ad.

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The incumbents are way way out-raising and are out-polling their Democratic challengers. I'm pretty sure Putnam is safe as Ag Commish as he's allowed to have it, CFO Atwater has over a million in his war chest while his opponent is at something like $10,000 raised in total, he's safe too. The AG race is the only potentially interesting one, having two halfway-serious challengers, one being the House minority leader and the other being a former Secretary of the Department of Children and Families. Neither of them have really raised much money or done anything too spectacular though, and with the state's lean helping her I'd say the race is something like likely R.

I agree, though I think Bondi is more vunerable than you think, if the D's step up their fundraising a bit.

Let me set you straight now. Perry Thurston has literally no f[inks]ing chance on Gods green earth. Actually ask a Floridian about him: they will either laugh or ask "who?"

It's more of a scenario where Dems at least have a competent candidate - nothing spectacular - who could be dragged into office by Charlie's coattails.

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Yikes. Scott outraised Crist by $11M (!).

Scott- $17M
Crist- $6M

That's including total party fundraising - while that plays a big role, it's not surprising the GOP is winning. Schorsch had it taken out for the March numbers:

Crist - $586K
Crist for FL - $941K
Total - $1.5M

Scott - $1.2M
Let's Get to Work - $362K
Total - $1.6M

The rest will mostly go to state legislature races (or Congress, or Bondi if she needs it), not the governorship.

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Crist meets Lopez-Cantera.

That was kind of awkward.

#givemescott.

I thought it was pretty awesome. Crist just shut CLC down, and was pretty funny while doing so.

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Bondi's been taking fire because of a brief she filed saying recognizing gay marriages performed in other states would "impose significant public harm."

This is as fine a time as any to remember that Bondi is currently on her third marriage (twice divorced - the first lasted two years, the second five), though the validity of her current marriage is questionable as it was ratified through a non-binding ceremony in the Cayman Islands.

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What should be done with the Florida Democratic Party?

Burnt to the ground

This part, at least, is accurate. Step one is to burn it to the ground. Burn the whole damn thing to the ground, including most (if not all) of current party leadership. Replace local leaders, replace state leaders, and replace elected officials - especially, for instance, some local DECs. A full-level cleansing by fire. The first step to recovery is admitting that you have a problem, and have had a problem since '92.

Step two is to refocus. Look, I want to target North Florida. I think the party should, in an ideal world, be able to win North Florida. But GOTV is a logistical nightmare. I'd rather put people in Broward than in the 14,000 square miles of North Florida - 8% the size and a hell of a lot easier to do GOTV in. It's also, finally, electorally irrelevant. Alex Sink could've seen a 20% swing in North Florida and still lost. Alternatively, she could've seen a 4% swing in Broward and Dade, and that'd be the same as 20% of that area. The FDP needs to refocus on South Florida - geographically smaller, growing, and more about GOTV among the base than convincing conservatives to back us. The FDP can win Dade, we can win Broward, and we should be targeting and Democratizing Orange, Pinellas, Seminole, etc. - counties where we have a voter registration edge that the FDP is failing at translating into electoral victories. Focus on state legislative seats there, make a difference there, and actually win the counties that matter.

Step 3 is better candidates, because who we've got now is nothing short of pathetic. There are 47 House seats that should be safely Democratic - carried by both Sink and Obama. We've got 44 seats in the legislature right now. There are 58 districts carried by either Sink or Obama, districts the Democrats should at least be competitive in. But the FDP just isn't being as competitive as it should be. Look at our 2014 candidates for statewide office - we couldn't find anyone better than a former bureaucrat from Ohio to run for CFO? I'd say something cynical about our Ag Commish candidate too, but I have no idea who he is. Except for Bob Butterworth and Alex Sink, we haven't had any statewide cabinet victories in this millennium, and only the AG races haven't been blowout Republican wins. We have no big-name candidates in FL-10 or FL-16, both very winnable seats, and don't even have anybody in FL-13, because the local Dem party decided to push aside a legitimate candidate in exchange for an ex-Republican from Tampa who'd never held elected office and graduated from a diploma mill. We especially need to start focusing on the young. In Florida, the Republican Party is the party of the young. Maybe not in votes, but certainly in elected officials. Will Weatherford, Marco Rubio, Adam Putnam, Anitere Flores, John Legg, Steve Crisafulli, Matt Gaetz - these are young people. And Democrats just aren't investing in their youth wings on anywhere near the level the Republicans are, even controlling for how moneyed the parties are. They've got a youth wing, and we just really don't have any sort of equivalent - maybe for putting together signs and licking envelopes, but not for investing in a new generation of leaders.

Worth mentioning that the Democratic Mayor of Alachua just endorsed Rick Scott as I was typing the above. Ugh.

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When I worked on the campaign in 2012, the staff was entirely under 30. The entire FL-GOP's base of operatives are all between 25-40, it seems. I don't know if the Democratic Party is made up of mostly young operatives, but the candidate who we were running against had an older staff (all in their forties and fifties, it appeared). They definitely need to tap into this pool of knowledge coming out of FSU-literally, every person I worked with on that campaign either graduated from FSU, or were students at FSU (besides  a few out of state interns). I am going to apply to the school myself, as its prime location in the capital naturally makes it the Mecca of Florida political strategists. I am sure the FLDP could recruit some young people there, and they could also make a greater effort to reach high school students in the hopes of driving them into the political science program (I get the feeling that the political science classes at FSU are dominantly Republican, but I base that off of anecdotal evidence).

The same was true for me on the big Dem race I worked last year. To add to that anecdotal evidence, though, basically every person on my campaign either graduated from UF or was a student there. Probably has something to do with the school colors.

Younger politicians are in short supply for the FL-Dems. Joe Abruzzo, who represents the Senate district just north of me, is a rare example of a younger Democrat in the legislature. When I think of the FLDP’s legislative bench, I immediately picture Gwen Margolis, Nan Rich, or Eleanor Sobel. On the national level, you do have Patrick Murphy, but he isn’t going to be running for Agriculture Commissioner of CFO in his lifetime-I suspect he has his eyes on the Senate already.

But yeah, this is more what I'm getting at. We can have young operatives aplenty, but we really have no youngish Dems in the legislature.

can probably turn Florida atlas red if the Florida Democrats read your post and take your advice.

You're lucky I'm not FDP chair.

I'm also lucky I'm not. Sounds like an awful job.

Florida Democrats are gonna wish U.S. Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) had jumped into this race because he would've beaten the crap out of Scott.

Florida Democrats wish they did a lot of things differently.

This is very much true. On the list of regrets FL Dems have, I doubt not having Nelson will be their highest. Not having Charlie Justice is what I'd put first, but eh.

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I doubt Nelson's ability to go up against a pre-existing, fairly large Crist operation. Most of the top Dem operatives have already started working for Crist. If he was going to do it he would've done it earlier.

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Hasn't the deadline already passed for him to jump in anyways?

Qualifying ended at noon today. No Nelson.

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A whistleblower from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity says she was fired after alerting the Scott admin that she uncovered fraud in the DEO and refusing to participate in the coverup. FL Commish on Human Relations found the Scott admin failed to correct the fraudulent activities. The DEO wrongfully turned over 19k Floridian to collection agencies, which could represent nearly a $2B legal liability for the state, to be paid by taxpayers. Press conference going on now.

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The Crist campaign will be sponsoring (kinda - got a wrap as an in-kind donation) the John Wise car at the Firecracker 400 at Daytona this Friday.

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Bit OT, but if Crist loses (as I think seems likely) would Alvin Brown be a good fit for 2018? What about Bill Buckhorn? The bench doesn't seem to be stellar.

Bench still sucks, but Brown is to the right of the average FL Dem, and faces a tough re-election fight against former RPOF Chair Lenny Curry. I would look at Buckhorn or Pam Iorio (and maybe Buddy Dyer) as our only real chances at 2018.

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Here we go.

The FL Legislature illegally favored the Republicans in redistricting and must be redrawn, acc'd to a Circuit Court judge. An appeal to the FL Supreme Court will likely mean it doesn't take effect until after the 2014 elections.

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At least the RPOF is current.

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Are you kidding? That is a really, really good one. It sends the message home to the average apolitical, undecided voter that Crist is only here to advance himself (as is Scott, but he at least hides it).

"If you vote for Charlie Crist, you'll get 4 great years and 2 championship rings. Charlie Crist is one of the best in the league."

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Are you kidding? That is a really, really good one. It sends the message home to the average apolitical, undecided voter that Crist is only here to advance himself (as is Scott, but he at least hides it).

"If you vote for Charlie Crist, you'll get 4 great years and 2 championship rings. Charlie Crist is one of the best in the league."

"But then after four years he will run off to a lesser place (Cleveland and Washington)."

"And you still got a great four years." It's just not a well-thought-out ad.

As a side note, the Crist campaign is up with their first TV ad, Sunshine. Attention whoring, but I'm at around 20 seconds on the right in the blue shirt.

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Crist being urged to choose a running mate

Darren Soto is my favorite of those options, with Val Demings a close second.

But A. it doesn't matter, and B. he's gonna pick Gelber.