'it looks like a landslide, folks...' (user search)
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  'it looks like a landslide, folks...' (search mode)
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Question: is this the likely result
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 69

Author Topic: 'it looks like a landslide, folks...'  (Read 11471 times)
Donerail
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Posts: 15,329
« on: September 18, 2012, 07:19:02 PM »

There will be no landslides unless there's a Romney landslide (and that would be in case of polls drastically oversampling democrats, as they are).  Obama isn't getting over his 2008 victory, which was a comfortable one. 

There are only 4 possible scenarios in the election:

Obama wins a Bush 00-04 victory.  I say that because I think in this scenario, Obama actually loses states and his popular vote margin, but wins the EC.  Though under this scenario Obama loses states he won in 08 (NC, FL, IN, CO, WI)
Romney wins a Bush 00-04 style victory. Obama wins a higher popular vote share with massive urban turnout in Los Angeles, NYC, etc.  Or Romney wins by about 2.5% with all the Bush 04 states (less NM, but with Wisconsin & NH).
Romney wins a comfortable victory.  PA, MI, NJ, ME1, CT, OR
Romney wins in a landslide. (everything but CA, VT, NY, RI, IL, MD & DC)

Wrong ME.
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