FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (user search)
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  FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win? (search mode)
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Author Topic: FiveThirtyEight Demographic Calculator Revisited: Can you make Trump win?  (Read 7652 times)
AmericanNation
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Posts: 1,081


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: 1.91

« on: May 08, 2016, 03:07:40 PM »


The Surge of working class whites has a tipping point of about 65%-to-66%, that makes Trump plausible/possible.
He may not see that type of turn out and support nationally, but it is very plausible in the rust belt.
OH and Florida are the obvious important states in any election.
IA, WI, PA go next. 
VA - whatev
MI, MN are going to be interesting to see if Trump is the real deal.   

zero out educated whites 50/50

Give Dems 99% of black & Latino vote with lower than Obama turnout. 

Interresting landslide

Kind of what the map will look like at least at some point in the campaign.
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