Which state will be first to go Democrat on a national level?

[AmericanNation]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more. 
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                       

[AmericanNation]

With regard to that, I see a trend of older black males and (non hispanic) Catholics becoming strongly republican (in the midwest anyway).  The second trend may well pull a significant amount of Hispanics along eventually.  Republicans only need to win 15-20% of the Black vote and 35-40% of the Hispanic vote to be a strong majority party for the next 25 years or more. 
I can't see the dependency death grip the democrats have on some groups lasting forever though (they will run out of other people's money), so a big shake up is a strong possibility.                       

Regarding your trends, I certainly don't see them at all right now. I mean, maybe in the future since anything is possible, but certainly not now, especially your prediction about older black males.  Older black males remember the Civil Rights movement very well, and it's still a very emotive experience for them since they lived through it. They see men like John Lewis, Andrew Young, and Jesse Jackson as heroes, and they're all Democrats.

Most black people I speak to about politics feel like the GOP hasn't done a damn thing for them in the past 50 years, and in fact, often tries to wind back the clock on civil rights and equality issues. You can certainly debate the validity of this argument, but I suspect this is why African Americans are consistently 90% Democrat or more in presidential elections.

How Hispanics trend in the future will be entirely dependent upon their income, social status, occupation and religious beliefs. They will eventually fan out among both parties, but that will take a while.

And while I'm on the topic, I really take issue with your 'dependency death grip' comment. A while back I was flamed for being kind of mean spirited towards blue collar Dems in WV regarding why so many hate Obama. I was angry in seeing them vote against their economic interests, and in the process I became condescending, which is probably the exact reason why the Democratic party is losing their support so rapidly.

If Republicans want to ever have a chance with minorities, the same condescending attitude needs to stop as well. Sure, blacks can be socially conservative, but they will never see themselves as compatible with the GOP if the party continues to insult them and claim that they only vote Democrat just so they can keep sucking on the government teat. That claim would (understandably) piss anybody off.

I can see your point, however I can easily turn it on it's head and my life experience and expertise would back me up in doing so... I'll leave that there. 

Yea, I would have guessed that the dynamic is different deep south vs. Midwest.  Many older black males I've talked to feel like the democrat party hasn't done a thing for them in the past 50 years, and they feel like they are taken for granted or oppressed by the ruling establishment in their community (democrats).  Republicans have pushed school choice, vouchers, economic development, tax relief, and family values. Meanwhile, democrats have...  tried to prevent those things with all their might and done nothing positive. 

Now, most other blacks(non old males) will give me a version of your line, or something about evil rich republican racists cutting all the programs they need or something like that.  I can imagine the gay marriage evolution and the immigration amnesty talk plays into my trend as well.       

[AmericanNation]

Not just a talking point, the segment that cares about their kid's education overwhelmingly supports those policies(in areas were they exist).  Go to a Voucher lottery once, you'll see 100% support for those policies.  
You have a point about frustration, but it isn't like they are going to get more democratic.  I read some interesting polls in North Carolina a few weeks ago showing 15 to 20 % of the black vote against Obama.  Now, Romney wins NC by 10 or more with those numbers, but something is going on there.  Probably a gay marriage thing, so you have religious, intact families who care about their kids education, and older males showing signs of a small realignment of 5-10%.        

[AmericanNation]

So if they both became swing states, than theoretically the unofficial party HQ s would move from Dallas and Atlanta to where? Indianapolis? Denver?