Scott Walker recall goes live

[AmericanNation]

If he wins, it will certainly be a major victory for those who wish to return to the good old days of the 1800's.

GDP growth above 2.5% ? ?  unemployment under 8% ? ?

Slavery ? ? Imperialism ? ?

Yes if Scott Walker is re-elected to his first term as governor of Wisconsin, than SLAVERY will be re-instituted and  Wisconsin will exploit it's overseas IMPERIAL colonies.  

Wait, Slavery has never been instituted in Wisconsin and we have no colonies.  

That's not what I meant. I was just saying that the 1800s weren't "The good old days" just because they had a good economy.

Yeah that 18% unemployment in 1895 and 14% in 1876 sure was good.

Hey, if we simply forgot almost the entirety of what we now know about medical science, and just turn it all over to quacks, who bleed you from time to time when you get sick, that should solve a lot of our fiscal problems, no?  And as to dentistry, in the good old days blacksmiths handled that.

All of this will happen if Wisconsin public employees contribute a penny toward their million dollar pensions.  Also, the sky will fall and the seas will rise.   

[AmericanNation]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 

[AmericanNation]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation? 

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net. 

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.

why would you do that?

[AmericanNation]

My little point is that the social safety net costs a lot more today than it would in the 19th even if there were a social safety net then comparable to the scope of what we have now. So to the extent the existence of the net truncates growth (debatable), that is just the way it has to be and should be. Thus referring to stats from the 19th century (to the extent that they are accurate and compare apples to apples, which is another rather more complex issue which I won't get into now), it seems rather inapposite to anything within the realm of current public debate. Don't you agree AmericanNation?  

Yes, Scott Walker should not be associated with 19th century: slavery, imperialism, or lack of safety net.  

Yes, you have to go back a couple more centuries.

You need to hit that sweet spot where there's no safety net but also no projection capacity for imperialism or slave trade.

Ah so one century forward. Calvin Coolidge or Hoover?

Coolidge Presidency.  Hoover was a great man after his presidency. 

[AmericanNation]

Hoover was, legitimately, a great man both before and after his presidency. Just not during.

Yea you're right, I didn't spend the time to craft that point properly.

Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

Actually, Coolidge was pretty great for the median worker.  Broad prosperity breeds opportunity.
   
FDR on the other hand was a complete disaster.  He cartelized industries, destroyed agricultural products, attempted artificially to raise prices (in the wake of the Great money Contraction, no less!), launched entirely new regulatory agencies headed by cronies, spent and ran up government debt orgiastically, pumped labor unions with more arbitrary power to behave monopolistically, and demonized entrepreneurs and industrialists.

[AmericanNation]

Both were terrible for the median worker. I know that's not who you are concerned about, and that's why you think Scott Walker is great.

Actually, Coolidge was pretty great for the median worker.  Broad prosperity breeds opportunity.
   
FDR on the other hand was a complete disaster.  He cartelized industries, destroyed agricultural products, attempted artificially to raise prices (in the wake of the Great money Contraction, no less!), launched entirely new regulatory agencies headed by cronies, spent and ran up government debt orgiastically, pumped labor unions with more arbitrary power to behave monopolistically, and demonized entrepreneurs and industrialists.

Hoover actually started all those things except for the last, which makes the revisionist caricature of him as some kind of laissez-faireist rather more ridiculous.

I'd say he's probably the most genuinely good person to have ever been President, and has a good claim to being the smartest one, too.  Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to make him a *good* one at the time he was in office.

Hmmm, maybe more like except the last two or three? ...and I don't think the first one to any great extent either, but yes Hoover is sometimes credited with starting the new deal.  I wouldn't try to correlate the two like that though.  Hoover seemingly fell into a technocratic trap.  Knowing how things work, but rolling the dice that you can create a better outcome by threading a needle.  He at least knew how things worked, whereas FDR basically didn't.

Hoover's main blunders:
1) money supply contraction + balancing the budget at the time of the crash (long term is good, not immediately)
2) Smoot–Hawley Tariff... which I think he was personally against, but signed it in a deal.
3) Began our road to insanely Increased regulations. 
 
1st one is the only major problem ...it magnified the second hugely.  3rd is more of a bad legacy, due to others continually making it worse. 
         

[AmericanNation]

I saw a band from Milwaukee last night talk a lot about how much they hated Scott Walker.

So what?

did they have any rational or thoughts or was it like 'pure tribal hate filled emotionalism?' 


'that' might be a good band/album name. 

[AmericanNation]

Re: The Life And Times of Herbert Hoover
I am beginning to think this thread needs a name change.

Well, the recall has now shifted into something like:
1) now that Walker is going to win (probably convincingly) is this a game changer for the presidential race? and
2) Is Walker going to use his new massive mandate to impose a new age of Neo-Coolidge-ism? and
3) Why does the mention of Coolidge cause Dems to bring up Hoover within 5 seconds? 

[AmericanNation]

And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html

[AmericanNation]

And the nail in the coffin.  The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Barrett's Base) is endorsing Walker.  I think the Recall balloon just deflated completely. 
   

http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/we-recommend-walker-his-removal-isnt-justified-l55ecb6-152111305.html

What does the endorsement history MJS look like?

pretty sure they endorsed walker in 2010, and often support republicans.

Yea, they sometimes (not "often") begrudgingly try to appear un-hackish.  The editorial board is Left of Center without a doubt.  They typically only support a republican if the democrat is a pathetic token, incompetent, or very likely to lose anyway.  This paper has basically been a protection racket for Barrett's tenure as mayor.  It is strikingly odd for them to point anything 'negative' out in relation to Barrett.  My guess is they see the writing on the wall.       

[AmericanNation]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it. 
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds   
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far. 
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall. 

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).   

[AmericanNation]

This is going to some circus if allegations of corruption are proven true against Walker soon after the election.

Are you talking about the John Doe investigation Walker originally called for?  If so it goes like this:
1) County Executive Walker suspects a problem with a charitable org overseen by the county.
2) Walker asks the District Attorney to look into it.  
3) The guy running the org turned out to be embezzling funds    
4) The John Joe turns into a fishing expedition for the last two years, producing basically nothing so far.  
5) Leaks from the DA office to the Journal Sentinel brings into question the professionalism of the Milwaukee DA office.
6) Democrats pin political hopes on 'a/any result' of the investigation, hopefully timed right before the recall.  

...Judging by what a complete boy scout Walker is, I would have to conclude that nothing close to Walker is there to find.  They might find a few staffers doing political work on government time (by typing an email or something).  

You forgot about him hiring unqualified friends for well paid public positions.(some guy with 2 DUI's for $80K a year job). Also isn't it hypocritical to release the better job numbers that don't normally get released until 5 weeks later and then not expect to get indicted in the John Doe investigation?

what?
1)a public employee had a DUI... ok.
2) no.  releasing important information to the public is a good thing not a bad thing. 
3) why would you expect to get indicted if you didn't do anything?  he hasn't even been accused of anything.  You aren't making a coherent point, that I can tell. 

[AmericanNation]

And why would releasing data early be a reason for someone vote differently? If it is good data and he wanted to be known, barring the breaking of any laws, why would people care even if it was to benefit his campaign.

Now if he had delayed the data so as to avoid the release of bad news before the election or had altered in some way as to make things look better then they were, then people would be outraged and rightfully.

Isn't that data usually released later, and could still be revised, and is usually released after revision?
http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/update-walker-releases-better-jobs-data/article_6f6c2302-9f54-11e1-9c91-001a4bcf887a.html

Isn't both the GDP and Unemployment data nationwide released and then revised later?

It's checked before it's released by the BLS, than revised later I think.

There isn't a lot to revise as this data is basically a 'count' not a projection.  The dems got furious about it because they were making a flawed projection (from earlier in the year) the main feature of the campaign and these numbers made them look ridiculous...  and you know that could never happen without an evil right wing conspiracy. 

An economist from some state agency gave a detailed presentation suggesting that the earlier projection was an out-layer a month or more ago and the dems just went berserk on the poor guy for the sin of telling the truth and being smart.  Now Walker has committed the same sin.  They actually think it is against the law to tell the public the truth...  weird.         

[AmericanNation]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

[AmericanNation]

The campaign has basically turned into:
 the Walker side citing dozens and dozens of facts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIUWlS4FwBk

vs.

The Barrett side making wild accusations and claims that can't be or haven't been substantiated.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEZ-IaUU7Zk&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=1&feature=plcp

and Walker is a "Rock Star" which makes dems uber jealous. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiUaq5eGJlw&list=UUHESYehMLDoSbTpk8apKiEA&index=4&feature=plcp

[AmericanNation]

The dems have basically given up "campaigning" as they have no  chance to win that way. 
They have a bunch of out of state operatives driving around vans in Milwaukee and Madison so they can deliver warm bodies to early absentee vote.  Their has reportedly been 100,000 early absentee ballots so far (in two days) compared to 200,000ish in the 2010 election. 
It is a little concerning because a disinterested uniformed vote is worth as much as the opposite.  However, the side that doesn't have to drag a majority of it's voters to the polls has a type of advantage.         

It's "uninterested" actually. "Disinterested" means unbiased, like a judge is supposed to be. You really all need to go to law school, to learn about, inter alia, mootness and disinterestedness.

I actually paused on uninterested and backspaced over it.  I wanted to take Latin just for that type of thing, but it wasn't available/workable. 

[AmericanNation]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke. 

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.     

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.   

[AmericanNation]

No wonder Barrett is losing. He's getting drenched in the suburbs and the rurals.

Yea, outside of Milwaukee and Madison Barrett is a joke.  

The growth of the 'WOW' counties  (Waukesha, Ozuakee, Washington) may eventually completely counterbalance Milwaukee and Madison.      

I Noticed the 'Norwegian Classic ethnic settlement areas' Went 47% for Walker in 2010.  It isn't all that important, but I am often frustrated that these areas are moving so incredibly slow toward the republican party.  Would it kill them to pick up the pace?!  Once they become majority GOP the western congressional district around La Crosse will flip and every region of the state will be majority republican -- except Dane County.    

Indeed, and speaking about trends, here is the Leip's trend map for Wisconsin for 2008.  You can see it is just awash with glorious shades of red, with only those pesky "Norwegian" regions (along with that food stamp nation Indian reservation, and what is that commie-lib county again just west of Milwaukee?) refusing to get about the business of gradually weaning themselves from the socialist agenda.  Oh wait a minute, Leips thinks blue is red, and red is blue because he's color blind doesn't he?  Hmmm. Well back to predicting who Romney's VP candidate will be and how each and every county in the nation will go this November and by what margin I guess. That probably might be more productive than this.  

That is a weird trend map.  I guess that's what it looks like when 10-15% of the Republican vote disappears. 
Tangential to the Norwegian factor, the 3 counties up by Deluth have 'weird' Finnish areas that have looney tune voting patterns.  I don't know if Lenin is running around agitating up there or what.  Fortunately it isn't a lot of votes, but it screws up the aesthetic of many statewide county maps.             

[AmericanNation]

what the hell is this thread

Can I help you with something?  At least Wisconsin and Wales start with the same letter.

"The center of the political universe for the next week and a half thread" 

[AmericanNation]

The only way Walker can lose is if 10-14% of his supporters don't show up to vote. 

Did you see the undecided and unsure numbers?  1% and 2% LOL!

Walker owns the middle-independents and the right loves him.  The same middle is still supporting Obama, however.  Mitt might want to start running some ads and or visiting the state, pronto.  He has 7 to 10 points up for grabs with his name written on them.  I expect this post Walker victory.   

[AmericanNation]

Walkers latest ads about crime reporting in Milwaukee seem pretty, well, over the top and kind of desperate. 

If you made a list of Tom Barrett accomplishments over his 8 years as Mayor of Milwaukee (I supported him), hiring a decent police chief is just about the only thing on the list.  So the fact that Chief Flynn and Barrett have lied about crime statistics undercuts Barrett's only accomplishment. 

It isn't desperation it is literally the exact opposite, the ad destroys the only thing Barrett had on his resume.         

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking.  The only serious thing was an embezzler --who Walker suspected and directed the DA to look into in the first place.  So, the John Doe on substance speaks to Walker's management skills --and that's all the dems have going?  --definition of desperation.       

[AmericanNation]

Wisconsin is roughly 5.7 million people. 2.3 million live in the Milwaukee DMA, ~600k in Milwaukee, and ~1.7 milllion outside of it. 1.7 million out of 5.7 million is 30%. Madison DMA and the City of Milwaukee itself are also slightly overrepresented.

I thought of those numbers (roughly) as I read his post.  The poll showed Obama with a 8-10% lead... so, if anything it was oversampling dems.  Lacrosse and Duluth isn't were the population is or were the uber-hyper motivated voters are.  That would be Dane county on the dem side and the WOW counties and Milwaukee suburbs on the GOP side.   

[AmericanNation]

I love how you projected the desperation of Barrett's 'John Doe' hail marry onto the Walker body punch, which is pretty meat and potatoes.  Their has been zero indication that Walker did anything wrong, will be indicted(LOL), or should even be mentioned in connection with a fishing expedition involving a vast array of nit-picking. 

I can't understand how you can possibly come to that conclusion, unless right wing talk radio is your only news source.  Virtually all of the people who reported to him as Milw. county commish have been indicted.  Most for campaigning on work time.  If you take the annual salary of these positions, Walker basically stole this money from Milwaukee county and used it as campaign cash.  Thats what this amounts to.  The only thing left is to directly connect Walker to the embezzlement, which is why they want the emails and why Walker is fighting to not turn them over.  An indictment is only a matter of time.

Some of the errors in your statement are in bold.

1 guy embezzled (not yet convicted because this investigation has gone on forever, for no justifiable reason) and was discovered because Walker suspected it. 

1 nice old grandma--county employee was charged with doing political work on county time for the sin of reading the Journal Sentinel online and posting some honest comments below the article favorable about her boss.

2 employees is a far cry from "Virtually all of the people who reported to him"

The emails were not sent to Walker.  He doesn't have them.  The conspiracy theory is that his staff had a secret email network.  How can you turn over something you don't have and may not exist? 

You left out the "Bid rigging" where no bid was awarded to anybody... LOL, that was a new one. 

Their is no such thing as an indictment in Wisconsin.  You get charged with a crime.  I wonder if the Barrett campaign is using that term so they aren't guilty of libel/slander technically or something.   

[AmericanNation]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHQ96z110WA&t=28m13s
Barrett admits he doesn't think Walker did anything wrong. 

Amazing how his entire campaign is relying on misleading people to believe something he publicly admits that he believes not to be true.     

[AmericanNation]

Where can you watch the May 31st debate online? C-span isn't hosting it: http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Wisconsin-Governors-Recall-Election-Final-Debate/10737431132/

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTUwV4BEZK4
here is the audio.