I don't get Atlas' obsession with PA, I simply don't. Especially since the same people who have NH listed as Tossup call PA Safe D. Even most pundits consider PA a competitive state with an ever so slightly Democratic lean, but Atlas acts as if it's as winnable for the GOP as CA or NY. Look, PA was close to being the tipping point state in 2012, and recent polls suggest that the state is indeed winnable for the GOP (whether the Republican advantage lasts remains to be seen, of course). And meanwhile Hillary is absolutely annihilating Republicans in New Hampshire (despite the email controversy), yet Atlas calls NH a Tossup. What is the logic behind this? It's one thing to rate PA Likely/Safe D, but then you can't go ahead and put NH, OH and VA in the Toss-up column (you'd have to rate those states Lean D since they either voted to the left of PA in 2012 (as is the case with NH) or voted Democratic for the same reasons as PA (as is the case with OH and VA: high minority turnout and demographics, Democratic-leaning suburbanites, etc.)
Pennsylvania is a hella inelastic state. New Hampshire is hella elastic. More to the point, universal swing is a myth. There are simply not enough voters in Pennsylvania who would consider voting GOP in a Presidential election to have it go Republican in anything other than a landslide year. "Pennsylvania is actually a swing state, guys, look at how close it was in 2012!" is up there with "Man, the Republicans just need to become socially liberal but fiscally conservative, then they'd win for sure!" and "The Midwest is trending Republican guys, look at the PVI!" as signs that the poster is either 12 or just really really new to the art of amateur psephology.
