Can the next Democratic nominee stop the bleeding in WV? I doubt anyone can win it, but who could bring the totals back above 40% for example?
Clinton would carry West Virginia, Kentucky, maybe Tennessee, definitely Arkansas, and turn Louisiana into a tossup state.
Doubtful. She'd lose WV, KY and TN by single digits at best. She'd probably win Arkansas in a very narrow surprise, kind of like when Obama won NC in 2008. Louisiana is long gone for the Democrats.
This erroneous thinking stems from many Democrats' belief that Obama did so badly in WV, TN, AR, MO, KY because he's black. Its not. It's because he's a DEMOCRAT, a far left one at that. Hillary could possibly get back above 40% in some of those states but they will still be Republican by at least 10%
The idea that he's far left is a perception, and an incorrect one at that.
Indeed, it has much more to do with cultural identity politics than it does with actual policy. Obama is an urban politician, talks like an urban politician, and campaigns like an urban politician. Add in the fact that Democrats have been declining in Appalachia for a generation now due to the decline in unions, the Democratic shift left on social issues, and the perception that the Democrats are anti-coal in the region and you have the perfect storm for Republicans to perform well there in national elections.
The fact that he's black doesn't really help Obama in these areas, either, but that's hardly the leading factor.