jman123
Jr. Member
Posts: 782
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« on: June 26, 2021, 11:11:59 PM » |
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I have been studying the Atlas NJ town by town election results and swings and i have been struck by certain things overall.
First, Trump gained in raw percentage points 0.25 more over 2016. The vast majority of 2016 third party vote went to Biden so he got 57 percent compared to clinton 54. Trump got 41 percent in 2016 and 41.25 in 2020 in NJ. One is struck by the large swing in highly educated white suburbs to Biden. This alone would have lowered Trumps total percentages to below 40 percent but something occured that i never expected. If you look at the town swing map, the large Republican swings occured in minority heavy, predominately hispanic , inner city urban areas. 10 -25 point swings to Trump. This counterbalanced somehow trump's slide in suburbs to maintain trump above 40 percent statewide.
What led to his improvements in urban areas?
Inroads among hispanics? What may have led to this? In 2016 Trump posted poor numbers in NJ urban areas but held his own in suburbs. Why this reversal?
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