Ukraine 2014

[Zuza]

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular.

It could give her Kremlin's support but hardly could raise her rating anywhere in the Ukraine (Eastern or Western). I don't know if she will become pro-Russian in the future, but I doubt that her main electoral base will ever be on the East. East has (and will have) its own candidates.

Anyway it seems that she will not run this time.

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Do you mean that he is economically left-wing? Why?

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There is a chance that during the Euromaidan events large share (maybe even majority) of "Freedom" supporters switched to the Right Sector, more radical nationalist group (it is not known yet whether Right Sector will nominate its own candidate, support somebody from other political groups or abstain from participating in the elections, but almost certainly it won't back Tyahnybok). I will not be surprised if now he will poll lower than previously.

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How he is ideologically closer to Klitschko? Economically liberal? From what I know "Freedom" poses itself as a "social nationalist" party and economically is far to the left of Klitschko or even Tymoshenko.

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Wikipedia states that she was dismissed (as well as other ministers). It seems that she is absent in the most polls, and, when included, polls less than 1%. I can't imagine her becoming a major candidate.

Unmentioned in your post, but still possible participants: Poroshenko, an oligarch and one of the Euromaidan leaders, currently polls quite high (about 10%, only several percents behind Klitschko and Tymoshenko); somebody from "Fatherland" aside from Tymoshenko (Yatsenyuk? Turchynov?); somebody from the Right Sector (Dmytro Yarosh?); Yuschenko, Hrytshenko, Lytvin, Lyashko (neither of them have any chance to receive more than a few percents); some radical pro-Russian candidate (Ihor Markov? he is currently imprisoned but can be freed soon).

Dobkin announced his candidacy. I doubt that he can win the PoR nomination. Maybe PoR will split over the issue to who will be nominated and eventually desintegrate? If Tihipko and Dobkin (both Eastern candidates) will run separately than Dobkin will be more Eastern and more pro-Russian and will get much less votes.

I put my bet on Klitschko vs Tihipko run-off (in which Klitschko will win by a notable margin), though, of course, other outcomes are possible.

[Zuza]

Leftist is probably too harsh a word. Tihipko is centre-left. He's definitely more ideologically committed than Yanukovych though, who was basically just pro-corruption. Like I said, Tihipko headed a party called Labour Ukraine, which obviously from its name was an explicitly social democratic group. Also, when Labour Ukraine merged with the Party of Regions after the 2010 elections, originally there was going to be a third party involved, a pro-business party called United Centre (previously The Party of Private Property). Tihipko told Yanukovych he wouldn't be involed if United Centre was and Yank obviously picked Labour Ukraine since it was way bigger. After that, Tihipko was basically in charge of designing the party's ideology. He was the main person responsible for pushing them from an ambiguous party of power into having some links with the PES.

Party name can matter very little, especially in countries without developed political culture (including post-Soviet countries, remember LDPR or Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, for example), but I didn't know about other facts you listed. Well, maybe he is to the left of an average Ukrainian politician, but it hardly will influence his results significantly.

[Zuza]

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular.

It could give her Kremlin's support but hardly could raise her rating anywhere in the Ukraine (Eastern or Western). I don't know if she will become pro-Russian in the future, but I doubt that her main electoral base will ever be on the East. East has (and will have) its own candidates.

Presidential candidates have switched their base of support between elections in the past; at least, Kuchma did it.

Yes, but then configuration of Ukrainian political forces was less stable than now. Since the border between "orange" North-West and "blue" South-East was fully established (in 2002-2004), it didn't changed significantly. And usually candidates switched from East to West, not from West to East.

Though probably there exists chance that sometimes somebody from "orange" political camp will occupy niche of Eastern candidate. For example, if no one from the East will manage to go to the runoff (it can happen in 2014 elections), then South and East will vote for the less undesirable of two Western candidates (just like Western regions voted for Kravchuk in 1994 and Kuchma in 1999). But I think that most probably that candidate won't be Tymoshenko.

[Zuza]

Another survey indicates similar results: http://glavcom.ua/news/190130.html. It was conducted by Kyivan International Institute of Sociology by request of Party of Regions. It includes 11 different presidential polls (each one shows one of possible PoR candidates against a set of candidates from other parties) and also a parliamentary poll. Tihipko is a clear winner among these 11, no one of other 10 candidates managed to beat even Symonenko or Hrytsenko (Dobkin showed second best result with 3.6%, Akhmetov third best with 3.4%).

If Tihipko would be PoR nominee (and most probably he would, especially after this poll), the results would be as follows:
Poroshenko - 19.8%
Klitschko - 12.1%
Tymoshenko - 8.4%
Tihipko - 8.0%
Symonenko - 5.0%
Hrytsenko - 4.6% (surprisingly high, he wasn't even mentioned in the SOCIS poll)
Tyahnybok - 1.7%
Medvedchuk - 0.7%
Against all - 17.6%
Undecided - 17.7%
Wouldn't vote - 3.2%

Parliamentary poll:
UDAR - 16.0%
Fatherland - 15.1%
PoR - 10.2%
KPU - 6.8%
Freedom - 4.5%
Radical Party - 3.4%
Solidarity - 2.9%
Our Ukraine - 1.6%
SPU - 0.9%
Ukrainian Choice - 0.6%
Others - 1.1%
Undecided - 26.7%
Wouldn't vote - 8.6%

[Zuza]

Interestingly, that poll appears to have been mostly directed towards Russian-speakers.

No, it seems that sample wasn't biased in favor of Russian-speakers. 33.6% stated they voted for Yanukovych in the 2nd round of 2010 elections, while 35.7% for Tymoshenko.

Though I don't remember exact linguistic statistics for Ukraine.

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It was a question about the language mostly spoken at home. 17.9% answered they speak Russian and Ukrainian at home equally. Overall share of those who can speak both languages most probably is much higher than 17.9%.

0.2% stated "other language" and 0.3% refused to say.

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Gender: 45.3% males, 54.7% females.
Age: 20.9% 18-29, 26.5% 30-44, 26.8% 45-59, 25.7% 60+.
Occupation: 11.3% manufacturing and agriculture, 7.7% service and trade, 8.7% tertiary sector emplioyees w/o higher education, 13.3% specialists with higher education, 4.0% individual entrepreneurs, 2.2% entrepreneurs and farmers, 0.9% army and police, 30.1% pensioners (retired or disabled), 3.8% students, 8.8% unemployed, 7.4% housewives and on maternity leave.
10.0% - don't have enough money for food, 40.7% - enough money for food, not enough for clothing, 41.6% - enough money for food and clothing, not enough for expensive things (such as fridge or TV), 6.2% - enough for expensive things, 0.3% - "we can purchase anything we want".

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No indication. But it seems that share of "against all" voters always was high. http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=173&page=1 - another KIIS poll, 18.1% (!)  answered thay would vote against all, of them 25.2% in the South and 25.7% in the East compared to only 10.0% in the West.

[Zuza]

Here is that KIIS poll on KIIS site: http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=rus&cat=reports&id=240&page=1&t=3, and it includes regional stats.

Intention to vote against all is even higher now (compared to the poll mentioned in previous post) in the East (36.0%) and lower in the West (3.1%), that isn't surprising, though also somewhat lower in the South (21.1%). In Central Ukraine it is nearly unchanged (11.8% down from 12.4%).

What surprises me is that according to this poll Tymoshenko voting base is the least Western of 3 major Western candidates, and that of Klitschko is the most Western. Though even Tymoshenko and Poroshenko poll lower in the East than Symonenko, not to say about Tihipko. Other voting patterns are more or less predictable.

[Zuza]

So who's winning in the east?

Tihipko clearly winning with 16.7%. And in the South he is winning too, though by a very slim majority. If he'll mobilize enough undecided and "against all" voters in the South-East, he'll go into the second round.

[Zuza]

Poll by Social Monitoring Centre (never heard about this pollster, but number don't seem highly dubious):
Tymoshenko 15.5%
Klitschko 14.2%
Poroshenko 13.7%
Tigipko 11.4%
Symonenko 6.4%
Tyahnybok 3.7%
Lyashko 3%
Don't know 16.7%
Wouldn't vote 15.4%

But in the runoff Tymoshenko can beat only Tigipko and would lose to Klitschko and Poroshenko.

[Zuza]

Joint poll by SOCIS, KIIS, Rating and Razumkov Center places Poroshenko in 1st place (36.2%; Klichko on a distant 2nd place with 12.9%). Klichko, Tymoshenko and Tihipko are more or less at the same level (10-13%), then Dobkin, Symonenko, Lyashko and Hrytsenko (all about 5%). Dobkin polled better than I would suppose, probably he attracted those Eastern voters for whom Tihipko isn't enough Eastern.

Poroshenko wins second round againt Klichko, Tymoshenko and Tihipko by a huge margins (42.9 to 15.3%, 46.3 to 11.6 % and 50.8 to 14.4 % respectively). So if he will run and if nothing will change dramatically, he will easily win and even have a chance to do this in the first round.

Right Sector received only 2.7% in the parliamentary poll, and its leader Yarosh 1.4% in the presidential poll, even less than Svoboda and Tyahnybok.

[Zuza]

Interestingly, none of the major candidates is a proper Westerner. In fact, many are not even born in Ukraine. Timoshenko is from Dnipropetrovsk and is not even ethnically Ukrainian (Timoshenko is her married name). Poroshenko is from the part of the former Bessarabia that is now in Ukraine (born right at the border with Moldova). Tyhipko is from Moldova itself. Klitschko (though not a candidate anymore) is a Soviet military brat, born in Kyrgyzstan. Symonenko is from Donetsk. Lyashko is from Chernihiv, studied in Kharkiv. Only Tyahnibok is from Lviv.

And Yuschenko, whose main electoral base was Galicia, is from Sumy Oblast. On other hand, although Chernihiv and Sumy are east of Dnieper, they are electorally "Western".

[Zuza]

Party of Regions surprisingly nominated Dobkin instead of Tihipko. Dobkin called other candidates who are PoR members (Tihipko, Boyko and Tsaryov) to withdraw.

So that's it ? Only two candidates ? Poroshenko and Timoshenko ? Well, talk about a disappointment... This will be dull. So who do you think is perceived as the "Eastern compatible" candidate this time ? I'd say Timoshenko a little bit more than Poroshenko, but I don't know.

Anyway, do you think this will mean very low turnout in the East or what ?

I've seen only one poll that includes information about how different regions will vote: http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=rus&cat=reports&id=240&page=1&t=3. According to it, of three main Western candidates (Klichko, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko) Tymoshenko have relatively slightly more support in the East while Klichko in the West. But it is not clear how will be Tihipko, Dobkin and Symonenko voters divided between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko in the runoff (and how many of them will not vote)...

Probably turnout in the East will be low in the first round and even lower in case of Poroshenko - Tymoshenko runoff.

[Zuza]

Why two? If we'll count those who can win, then there is almost certainly only one candidate. If those who can go into second round, then 3 candidates. In the most recent poll (the first after Klitshchko withdrew), Tihipko took second place, so he can go into runoff. By the way, 4th place (after Poroshenko - 38.3%, Tihipko - 17.9 % and Tymoshenko - 11.6 %) unexpectedly goes to Yuriy Boyko (6.9 %). According to the same poll, 60% of those who voted for Yanukovych in the 2010 run-off still undecided, so Tihipko has room to grow, and 65% of those who then supported Tymoshenko now intend to vote for Poroshenko.

Tihipko and Boyko refused to withdrew, so Party of Regions threatens to expel them. It is very possible that PoR will split and what remain of it will become more extreme pro-Eastern party controlled by Rinat Akhmetov (it seems that Dobkin was nominated because he is Akhmetov's protege).

[Zuza]

The SPU are just barely reformed Communists (they actually endorsed Simonenko in the last presidential election).

How exactly did they endorse him? Their leader Moroz ran independently of the KPU (and got 0.38% of votes).