Look over each PR zone and the FPTP the vote and PR vote I am beginning to map out how the PR vote mapped to FPTP votes. Trends I found were the following
1) LDP+NKP PR voters voted LDP+NKP FPTP. No surprise here since there was a LDP+NKP candidate in every district.
2) JRP and YP voted for their party FPTP candidates, but where there was none split their vote evenly between LDP+NKP and the center-left parties (DPJ, Future Party, SDP). In fact since in Osaka there were several districts where JRP and YP endorced the NKP candidate the "free choice" JRP/YP voters that were not able to vote for their own party lean slightly left.
3) Future Party and SDP voted DPJ where they could not vote for their own party, sometimes they voted JCP.
4) DPJ PR voters voted Future and SDP where their candidate was not running but some went to JCP.
One thing that is different in 2012 versus 2009 was that the there was no tactical voting by JCP PR voters. In 2009 3% out of the 7% voters that voted JCP voted for the center left DPJ alliance in the FPTP vote. This time around JCP got a surplus FPTP vote mostly based on protest (refusal to vote LDP by center-left voters). This is part of my point earlier that the real mistake of the DPJ was (asaide from the Ozawa split ito the Future Party) was the split with the SDP. A broad cente-left alliance of DPJ and SDP (as wwell as Future Party) would give the center-left voter a choice that could win so their vote would not go to the hopeless JCP. In fact such a alliance would give JCP voters a tactical choice of voting for this llaiance. This allaince is the basis of a DPJ comeback,especially give the fact that JRP and YP voters are not all wedded into votinh LDP if left a hard choice of LDP vs DPJ.
Are there any differences between JRP and YP voters behavior? I suppose YP voters more easily than JRP voters supported centre-left parties.
Did YP voters always voted for JRP candidate (if their own candidate was not on the ballot) and vice versa?
