El Salvador Mid-term Election - March 1, 2015

[politicus]

Both parliamentary and local elections.

I got no results, so just a reminder to someone knowledgable to write about it.

http://www.iri.org/web-story/el-salvador-pre-election-watch-march-1-2015-mid-term-elections

EDIT: Seems the lack of results is due to a problem with their computer system (could be an excuse, who knows).

http://luterano.blogspot.dk/

[politicus]

Electoral Commission:

http://elecciones2015.tse.gob.sv/

[politicus]

Status:

- The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) computer system for compiling and disseminating preliminary results completely broke down.  

- TSE is giving up on having preliminary results.  

- They are doing the final scrutiny of 31,000+ vote tally sheets (actas) manually. This process could reportedly take two weeks.

- Through their networks of vigilantes and poll workers at polling tables the big parties have their own vote tallies. Based on those it is known who won the race for mayor in several cities and the losers have conceded. Both ARENA and FMLN claim to have won 36 seats in parliament, but this is much more unreliable.

In the local elections:

San Salvador was won by the FMLN's Nayib Bukele, a youngish businessman, who is the current mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlan. Bukele's vote total was in all likelyhood much closer than most of the recent polls were predicting.

Santa Tecla (Nueva San Salvador prior to 2003) went to ARENA. Despite the upcoming beatification of Archbishop Oscar Romero the son of the man who ordered his assassination became mayor! Roberto D'Aubuisson Jr. ended two decades of FMLN rule.

In San Miguel in the east long time mayor Will Salgado from GANA lost to Miguel Pereira from FMLN.

[politicus]

Hash, do you happen to know Bukele's ethnicity? The Arab first name + an almost African surname is confusing. He looks Lebanese, which would be natural in that region, but the surname is odd.

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With 97,5% of polling places counted the National Assembly results are:


ARENA 852,176.21375 Votos (38.76%)
FMLN 815,521.09023 Votos (37.10%)
GANA 206,554.54090 Votos (9.40%)
PCN 150,273.39072 Votos (6.84%)
PDC 54,437.12203 Votos (2.48%)
CD 34,726.29168 Votos (1.58%)
DS 18,306.54671 Votos (0.83%)
PSD 16,050.25071 Votos (0.73%)
PCN/DS 3,658.51667 Votos (0.17%)
ARENA/PCN 37,690.08333 Votos (1.71%)
PCN/PDC 6,453.08333 Votos (0.29%)

[politicus]

The municipal election has been fully counted, but there is no seat distribution on the TSE website, but left wing majority in the capital.

http://escrutiniofinal2015.tse.gob.sv/concejos/mun001.html

San Salvador:

ARENA 82,288  46,5%
FMLN 85,789  48,5%

GANA 1,389  0,8%
PCN 736 0,4%
DC 1,108 0,6%
CD 1,303 0,7%
DS 1,019 0,6%
PSP 3,375  1,9%

[politicus]

Central American Parliament:

FMLN 40,1% 8
ARENA 39,8% 8
GANA 9,0% 2
PCN 5,8% 1
PDC 2,1% 1

http://escrutiniofinal2015.tse.gob.sv/parlacen/

[politicus]

Final legislative election result:

ARENA 32 (+4)
FMLN  31 (-)
GANA  11 (+1)
PCN     4 (-3)
PDC    1 (-)
CD    0 (-1)
DS    0 (-)
PSD    0 (-)
PCN/DS 1 (+1)
ARENA/PCN 3 (+3)
PCN/PDC 1 (+1)
Unidos Por El Salvador - (-5)
Independents 0 (-1)

Total 84

The ARENA/FMLN balance with total seats in brackets (combo lists not counted)

SAN SALVADOR 11/10 (24)
SANTA ANA 3 /2 (7)
SAN MIGUEL 2/3 (6)
LA LIBERTAD 5/4 (10)
USULUTAN      2/2 (5)
SONSONATE 2/2 (6)
LA UNION 1/1 (3)
LA PAZ 1/1 (4)
CHALATENANGO 1/1 (3)
CUSCATLAN 1/1 (3)
AHUACHAPAN 2/1 (4)
MORAZAN 1/1 (3)
SAN VICENTE  1/1 (3)
CABAÑAS 1/1 (3)


Result in percentage:


ARENA 874,169 (38.77%) Conservatives
FMLN 840,619 (37.28%) Leftist/Centre-Left
GANA 208,851 (9.26%) Centrist
PCN 152,632 (6.77%) Moderate Conservatives
PDC 55,698  (2.47%) Chistian Democrats
CD 36,396 (1.61%) Social Christians
DS 19,210 (0.85%) Liberals
PSD 16,647 (0.74%) Social Democrats


Combo-lists:

PCN/DS 3,658  (0.16%) Conservative/Liberal
ARENA/PCN 37,690 (1.67%) Conservative
PCN/PDC 6,453 (0.29%) Conservative/Christian Democratic

[politicus]

So:

Conservatives:

ARENA + PCN 39


Conservative/Centrist:

PCN/PDC +  PCN/DS 2


Centrists:

GANA + PDC (Christian Democrats - José Napoleón Duartes old party) 12


Left:

FMLN 31


Clear right wing majority. Hash wrote that there was a GANA/PCN alliance, but they are the only right wing parties that have not fielded common candidates, so that sounds a bit odd.

Democratic Change which lost their only seat was a small Social Christian party founded by PDC left wingers and FMLN moderates + Union of the Democratic Centre, which was mostly based on the old Social Democratic Party (PSD). PSD ran independently this time.

Partido Democracia Salvadoreña (DS) is a liberal ("progressive and humanistic" according to themselves) centre-right party that ran candidates for the first time in this election. They were joined by one (maybe two) of the Union por El Salvador MPs (an ARENA breakaway) after Union por El Salvador voted to dissolve itself and rejoin ARENA in autumn 2014.