Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

If it jives with their internals...

Why should their internals be better then the last polls? It is only two days since the last polls were conducted.

(besides parties in small European countries generally don't do internals)

[politicus]

NEW DEMOCRACY TO GET 23%-27% OF VOTE, 65-75 SEATS: POLL

shhh!

[politicus]

The exit polls were inaccurate the last three times, so no reason to trust them too much.

[politicus]

What's the threshold to get in?

3

[politicus]

I suppose we should wait until the votes are counted before we start saying things with any degree of firmness, but this looks pretty clear...

Greek exit polls are not known for their accuracy.

[politicus]

Registered 1.201.765
Reporting   14,29 %
Voted   58,17 %
Invalid/Blank   2,28 %
Not in Parl/mnt   8,65 %

Syriza   34,91 %
ND      29,48 %
XA      6,25 %
Potami   5,53 %
Pasok   5,30 %
KKE           5,29 %
ANEL   4,59 %
MDS      2,55 %
Union of Centrists   1,85 %
Teleia - Apostolos Gkletsos 1,69 %
LAOS   1,10 %
Antarsya   0,58 %
DIMAR   0,46 %
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist–Leninist) 0,13 %

[politicus]

Only 8.6% wasted votes, which makes it harder.

[politicus]

Turnout above 60% now. It is going to be like last time in the end.

Syriza needs 37% with current number of wasted votes.

[politicus]

Nice to get a seat distribution.

Syriza 147
ND 79
Golden Dawn 17   
Potami   16   
KKE           14   
Pasok   14
ANEL   13   

[politicus]

So, if SYRIZA doesn't hit 37%, do we think we're looking at a SYRIZA minority government, a SYRIZA-led coalition with some other anti-austerity party, or a SYRIZA-led coalition with Vestigial PASOK?

Personally I hope fora a Syriza majority, so that they have the full responsibility for the "re-negotiations" with EU. It's better that there is a clear mandate behind it, and no one else can be blamed for the effects.

Grow up. If the greek people are so bovine as to vote for soggy Euro-communists, then they will both deserve and need to have the colonels back to teach them a lesson.

holy sh**t you're horrible

Syriza minority.  They got several options to cooperate with on different policy areas and Tsipras has said only KKE will do as partner and they have declined. No reason to risk a fight with his left wing by backtracking on that promise when they are so close to a majority.

[politicus]

A minority government only works if at least one of the parties agrees to vote with SYRIZA on confidence motions though, right?

Or abstain. I doubt KKE would vote against them in a vote of confidence.

[politicus]

148 now.

[politicus]

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

[politicus]

There is also the possibility of luring a couple of defectors to Syriza and who says Pasok would risk another election. It would be a huge gamble.

[politicus]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?

[politicus]

Syriza 36.36% vs. Potami 6.04% now.

How much does that have to move before seat 150 flip?

0,01 or 0,02%. Not kidding.

hmm It is 36.38-6.04 now whitout them moving it.

[politicus]

SRIYZA is back at 36.36.  Looks like it will 149 seats.

Potami also at 6.05 now

[politicus]

Union of Centrists getting around 1.78%. They flew totally under my radar. Main reason I over estimated Potami was I thought they were the only moderate centre-right-like option (not officiall, but in reality) to speak of.

DIMAR finishing behind Antarsya was also a surprise.

[politicus]

Horrible, awful election result, but if there is one silver lining it is this:

Results:
SYRIZA: 36.4%, 149 seats
ND: 27.8%, 76 seats
XA: 6.3%, 17 seats
To Potami: 6.1%, 17 seats
KKE: 5.5%, 15 seats
ANEL: 4.7%, 13 seats
PASOK: 4.7%, 13 seats

My Prediction (copy-pasted from the predictions thread; can't be quoted since it's locked):
SYRIZA 36.5 (149 seats)
ND 29.8 (81 seats)
To Potami 6.4 (17 seats)
XA 6.2 (17 seats)
KKE 5.1 (14 seats)
PASOK 4.9 (13 seats)
ANEL 3.4 (9 seats)

Called the exact seat number for...SYRIZA, To Potami, XA, and PASOK, so 4/7 major parties. Was within 5 seats of the result for all of them. I was within 0.5% of the final result for 5/7 major parties -- all but ND and ANEL, who I over- and under-estimated, respectively.

I'm good

I will open the prediction thread once we have the final result.

Please keep prediction stuff out of this one.

[politicus]

Prediction thread opened. I just thought we could wait for the end result.

[politicus]

Turnout is disappointing still. Only 64%.

Higher than last time, where it was 62.5%.

[politicus]

Wow... Golden Dawn not only survived the crackdown against them, they only lost one seat. I don't know whether to be impressed, scared or surprised.

Let us not overlook the satisfaction that the fascist party actually lost 50,000 votes in a situation of economical crisis and paranoia against the almighty banks-Troika-Merkel et al. I think we can nearly all agree on this one particular satisfaction tonight.

Being the third (or tied for the third) largest party in parliament is still nothing to sneeze at, though. Makes me wonder, if control the government came down to a coalition with Golden Dawn, would anyone do it?

At this point, it's a surprise when the far-right party doesn't do unexpectedly well.

There is a difference between a far right party and a far-far right party exposed as a criminal organization and competing with multiple other anti-immigration/tough on crime options. So XAs result was unexpectedly good. The ones predicting such a good result were (ironically) people ignorant of Greek politics.

EDIT: Talking about off-forum (media mainly), no offence to anyone here.

[politicus]

Syriza's 2014 40 point governmental program:

http://links.org.au/node/2888

Interesting to see how much (or little) of it they will try to implement.

[politicus]

What was Golden Dawn's best area?

Lakonias 10.47% (Sparta)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconia

[politicus]

It's official: ANEL is entering a coalition with SYRIZA

Edit- reports are that Tsipras will also be speaking with Potami and KKE as well

"An agreement in principle"

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/independent-greeks-and-syriza-to-form-government

Not 100% sure what to make of this, but I think it will be a trainwreck.

Much clearer here:

“from this moment on there is a government in the country. The Independent Greeks give a vote of confidence. The Prime Minister will go the President of the Republic and announce the government formation”

"Mr. Tsipras is also scheduled to meet with the leader of The River Stavros Theodorakis on Monday afternoon, in order to discuss the possibility of the newly-formed party to support the coalition government efforts. Mr. Tsipras is also rumored to ask to meet with the Communist Party’s general secretary Dimitris Koutsoumpas, who announced that his party would support any pro-people measures that SYRIZA proposes."

http://www.tovima.gr/en/article/?aid=670803