Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

Oh great, another sh*tty election result.

Given the circumstances it is actually quite good for people like you. As noted above the reverse result would have been a disaster for the left.

This might very well be the ouverture for a Frederiksen goverment in 2016 with a weaker Radikale = a more classical SD line. Alternativet is a joker, but if you count them as somewhat leftist/green, this is not bad for the left. DPP won so big that they might be tempted/feel obliged to enter government, which is the safest way to break a right wing populist party - especially such a weak government.

The Thorning/Corydon axis was a guarantee for a all round quite right wing party, both on economics, immigration and civil rights/justice. It was only on the environment that this goverment was (moderately) leftist. If Thorning had stayed on with a decent election result this would have continued.

Thanks for the explanation, that's quite heartening actually.

When will the next SD Congress be held? And who are the leading candidates? Hopefully the next leader will be a left-winger.

It looks like it will be a coronation of Mette Frederiksen and it is hard to see a credible alternative (Corydon does not have the necessary support and Frederiksen and right wing leader Henrik Sass Larsen seems to have a mutual understanding of power sharing between the largest factions - so likely no challenge from his wing). She is the leader of the centrist faction (The Network), but a former left winger (once dubbed belonging to the Hugo Chavez faction of the party by her critics). She has been pragtmatic, but is clearly much closer to a traditional SD line than Thorning. So a move from the right to the center of the party. The actual left wing is rather weak and without a credible candidate right now.

[politicus]

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days.
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.

How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

I am not saying it wont happen, just that it will be a mistake by the DPP leadership - which I generally consider to be clever operators - and a surprise. In addition to the other things I have mentioned DPP depends on a large bloc of former SDs that can revert to the left if the government cuts too deep on welfare. On Europe such a government would likely frustrate both Europhiles in Venstre (risk of defections to Radikale) and DPP core supporters. It will be more fragile than a pure Venstre government.

DPP is under pressure to appear responsible, but if their long term aim is to become the biggest party in Denmark, they should pass this time.

[politicus]

One option that has been mentioned by DR political editior Jens Ringberg is worth noticing. A Liberal government with an announcement by LLR and Thulesen Dahl that it will be extended with DPP after a coming EU-referendum. This allows DPP to campaign freely without having a split government and appear responsible. At the same time DPP can hope for a collapse of the government and a new election before they actually have to take responsibility.

[politicus]

Actually I think it may be a reference to referendums on whether the Danish government should maintain its opt-outs on several EU matters. They were agreed before the election.

Yes, sorry for being unclear.

[politicus]

It's hilarious how Left Copenhagen is...

Add Frederiksberg and Gentofte and this changes a bit, but yes. "Everybody in that city are Commies.." as it says in a 1950s show tune. Though we have gotten a small right wing enclave in the historically proletarian SW due to recent developing, which sorta spoils the map.

[politicus]

On the parliamentarian situation for a DPP-Lib government and a Liberal solo government:

If DPP gets into government the two Greenlanders will be prepared to support a vote of no confidence. Greenlanders consider DPP (and especially their Deputy Chairman and spokesperson on Greenland Soeren Espersen) to be insensitive and neocolonialist. IA prefers not to vote on Danish issues and I doubt they would participate in toppling a Liberal government. Siumut has moved in the same direction in recent years despite their technical cooperation agreement with SD. Faroese Republic will likely stay neutral in both scenarios, they see their MPs role as ambassador for their country.

Radikale will be stuck in Red Bloc if DPP gets into government, but might pursue a more free agent role if the Liberals go solo (at least if the government survives its first year).

So DPP-Liberals will be a mere 90-88 for the government. One deserter from Liberals to Radikale (a new Bjorn Elmquist over civil rights issues or a hardcore Europhile) makes it a tie and two DPPs going Indie or making a mini-party (like Christian Hansen did with Fokus) will make it very unstable.

A Liberal government might be able to create a working relationship with Radikale on economics/welfare - making the situation more unclear. The baseline here is 90-86.

DPP has conducted a very thorough vetting process for new candidates this time (everyone has been interviewed by party leadership and went through extensive background check) to secure that they all tow the party line (and avoid nutters), but with that many new faces and the character of the party there are bound to be a couple of mavericks.

[politicus]

Update:

Mette Frederiksen constituted as temporary SD chairman, she will be formally elected on an extraordinary congress next week.


DPP says the current offer from LLR is not good enough for them to enter government. Thulesen Dahl mentions welfare and healthcare as the biggest hindrance. Looks like they are trying to get out of it.


Anders Samuelsen threatens not to support a government unless there are tax cuts for high income earners. This will be hard for DPP to swallow.

[politicus]

Poll shows 53% of Danes wants DPP in government (with very different motives likely)
32% prefer a pure LIbeeral government.

[politicus]

Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

The most interesting now is how Radikale will react. Will they stay in Red Bloc or try a freer role.

Venstre will need either DPP or SD to form a majority and they can not afford to alienate DPP, so DPP will still wield great influence. It is difficult to see how Venstre can satisfy LA (and their own more ideological members) in this scenario.

[politicus]

Reintroducing Hjort as MoF seems like a mistake.  He is yesterdays man and damaged goods and the party has younger people capable of doing the job.

Five women is pathetic - even given it is the Libs we are talking about. They should be able to find more - especially if they had included more non-MPs. Wonder if Loekke tried to lure Lykke Friis back.

It is also a clear middle finger to Kristian Jensen. While it may be prestigious to be Minister of Foreign Affairs (Deputy PM is a ludicrous title), he would have had much more real power as MoF - and it would have been a more obvious post for a man with his experience and background.

Kjaersgaard vs. HTS is interesting. It will test the 90 seat majority right from the start. I doubt LA and Cons can seriously vote against Pia K. It would undermine their relationship to DPP before Blue Bloc has even started to govern.

I had expected HTA to simply resign her seat and move to the UK. Maybe do some consultancy work.

[politicus]

LA has declared their support for Pia K. as Speaker and the Cons support her too. The payment is the chairmanship of the powerful Finance Committee to LA Deputy Chairman Simon Emil Ammitzboell. Pia K. is now almost certain to become Speaker now. Something that would have seemed impossible only 5 years ago. The four Deputy Speakers will be from SD, Libs, LA and Red Greens. A first for both LA and the Red Greens.

[politicus]

The Social Democrats voted for Kjaesgaard? God, this party...

SocDem votes for the speaker the majority support, SPP usual do this too. The reason SPP voted against Kjærsgaard was not because her politics, but because they doubted she had the objectivity needed to represent the entire parliament. The Red-Greens voted against because she represented the right, but they saw little difference between her or a potential Venstre candidate for speaker. Alternative voted against her, because they discovered their voters got angry, when they said they would support the majority's candidate in this case Kjærsgaard.

...and now you can throw a hissy fit over the fact that SocDem simply follow tradition, instead of making a meaningless but symbolic stand with no positive practical effect. The Danish parliament are not the hyperpartisan parliament you see in other countries, the weak minority governments make cooperation necessary and it pays not to burn bridges by going after the opponents personal.

Well, if the entire Red Bloc had voted against Pia K. it would have forced a vote where just one defector could have toppled her. It would have been interesting to see if party discipline had been strong enough. Naser Khader would have to personally secure her election (among other things). Little doubt he would have done it, but it would be a nice test.

Even ignoring that I think SD as a minimum should have abstained like SPP and Social Liberals.

[politicus]

I guess the discussion on Danish politics now returns to the Great Nordic thread.

For general discussion, yes. But this was a fairly interesting election and as thread creator I reserve the right to sum up the election after I get back to DK on the 14th.. Looking at trends, big picture etc.

[politicus]

The election set some interesting records - and was fairly close to some others.

While SD managed to gain a bit and the Left Greens did not succeed in making inroads among SD left wingers (which many observers predicted and the polls indicated mid-term), thus preventing a full scale landslide, four out of five establishment parties lost.

1) The Four Old Parties (Liberals, Social Liberals, SD and Conservatives) - founded before or in connection with the introduction of universal adult suffrage in 1915 and the foundation for all Danish governments ever since - got their lowest combined total ever (53,8%).

2) The election provided the biggest swing (17,1%) from establishment parties to anti-establishment parties since the landslide election in 1973.

3) The combined vote share of 22,9% for the two mainstream centre-right parties (Liberals-Conservatives) was the lowest ever.

4) A record 37,2% voted for Eurosceptic parties.

Especially the small establishment parties got clobbered:

1) The Conservatives got their worst result ever in their Centenary year - finishing with a single digit seat count for only the second time.

2) SPP got more than halved and got their second worst result ever (only 1977 was worse due to internal infighting and it being uncool voting for "revisionist" moderate hero SPP among young left wingers in the red seventies).

3) Radikale got halved and received their fourth worst result (on par with 1994). 1977, 1990, 1998 being worse. All their worst results received as a direct or (in the case of 1977) indirect result of the party being in government. Ironically uber-responsible Radikale thrives best in opposition.

But the two big ones didn't do so well either:

The Liberals  got their worst result in 25 years, but were lower 1935-43, 1966-1973 and 1977-1990. However, those elections were in eras where at least one of the other centre-right parties were strong (like the Conservatives dominating in the 80s) and before the party "conquered the cities" in the 90s.

Despite gaining 1,5% SD received their fifth worst result post-1915 (actually post-1906). Helle Thorning-Schmidt have the dubious honour of having led the party to three of those five results (the others are 1973 and 2005).


Other trivia:

The election saw the number of MPs with immigrant background dropping from 6 to 2 (Naser Khader (Cons) and Yildiz Akdogan (SD). On par with the situation in the early 00s.

The election date was held at the latest pre-summer holiday date ever - and the second last date possible - after HTS and her advisers had delayed the "Before or after summer?" decision to the very last moment, waiting for that elusive perfect SD wave to top.

[politicus]

Could the Conservatives merge into Venstre? I don't really see what separates them in a non-historical context nowadays.

That has been the case since the 60s and Venstre leader Erik Eriksen suggested a merger in 1965, which was rejected by virtually everybody in both parties and ended his career. It has been a dead idea ever since. There is a big difference in party culture (folksy/rural roots vs. elitist/bourgeois).

Current chairman Søren Pape has a rural and Christian cultural background, which he shares with many Liberals, but his political project is to establish the Conservatives as a party to the right of Venstre on both economics and value based issues, such as crime, Europe, education and immigration/integration. Their parliamentary party is autonomous of the party organization and with no moderates among the remaining six MPs there is no one to stop him. He and his supporters will have no interest in folding and merging into a fairly centrist Venstre.

If the Conservatives disappear it is more likely to happen through a process where their moderate base (mostly in Frederiksberg, some Copenhagen suburbs and strongholds like Odense and Elsinore) will slowly lose faith in regaining the party and drop out preferring to establish local lists in their municipalities, while the party ends up below the threshold in a national election and is unable to stage a comeback.

A lot of party members are 60+ and unlikely to join a new party, younger members are much more likely to join LA than Venstre.

Venstre has almost 5 times as many members, so the (former) Conservatives would be a small and irrelevant minority in Venstre outside of Frederiksberg and a few Copenhagen suburbs.

[politicus]

On the topic of mergers and the Conservatives: Many prominent Christian Democrats think it is time to fold after four failed attempts to pass the threshold and merge into another party. They prefer the Conservatives. In addition to the remaining KD base this blend could attract a group of SoCon Jutlandic voters that currently vote DPP in order not to waste their votes. I think it is likely that KD will either merge or lose most of their members and become a "sect" with less than 1 000 members) - and since most "leftists" have already left the party the remaining KD may fit well into Papes populist SoCon version of the Conservatives, but this would further alienate socially liberal and elitist Copenhagen upper middle class Cons (both moderates and Bildung loving self styled Classical Conservatives).

EDIT: So far they are continuing, but the party only has 6 elected representatives left (half of them in Ringkøbing-Skjern municipality), and lost big in traditional strongholds Holstebro and Struer constituencies in Western Jutland. A bad municipal election in 2017 could be the end.

[politicus]

For the first time in three decades the number of manual workers (incl. office workers) increased in the new Folketing - from 14% to 18,4%:

DPP 18 of 37
Red Greens 6 of 14
SD 6 of 47

Libs, Cons and SPP have 1 each
LA, The Alternative and Radikale (unsurprisingly) have none

http://www.ugebreveta4.dk/hvert-femte-nyvalgte-folketingsmedlem-er-arbejder_20123.aspx

[politicus]

Dumb question I feel ashamed for not knowing the answer to: Why was Naser Khader kicked out of his party? Too conservative? He fits in fine with the Conservatives now?

He was not kicked out, but left Radikale because he and Anders Samuelsen were tired of having no influence. They wanted to create a new centrist party that could offer Venstre and Conservatives an  alternative partner to DPP and counter its influence. It happened in a context where Radikale had isolated themselves by being very principled humanists/softies on immigration & integration. Khader and Samuelsen teamed up with a moderate Conservative (Gitte Seeberg) and formed New Alliance. The party had no coherent ideology (and Seeberg was significantly to the left of Samuelsen) and after an initial success it only just managed to get above the threshold and soon fell apart. Samuelsen persuaded Khader to relaunch the party as the (Soft) Libertarian Liberal Alliance, a project Khader was always  lukewarm about. So Khader soon left and joined the Conservatives a couple of months later. The Conservatives were more moderate back then and he has moved significantly to the right in the last couple of years (having worked in a US think tank has influenced him).

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

Increases.

[politicus]

While the Red Green Alliance had a pretty mediocre election given that SPP nearly collapsed and even lost support in their Copenagen strongholds they gained a lot in the province - especially Jutland, and became more of a national party. Building on their good municipal election in 2013.
Found this list over 40%+ gains:

Randers Nord 59%

Esbjerg City 55%

Tønder 53%

Frederikshavn 50%

Odense Øst 48%

Mariager Fjord 46%

Randers Syd 42%

Vejen 42%

Aabenraa 41%

Odense Syd 40%

Just to be clear, are those in percentage points or percent increases?

Increases.

At face value, these places don't exactly look like your average immigrant areas - more like a combination of urban and exurban quasi-deprived areas (but some of them don't seem to fall in either of these categories) - what do these places have in common, according to you? Did Enhedslisten get more votes from "ethnic Danes" (as opposed to people with an immigrant background) than last time, picking up some disillusioned SPP voters?

Enhedslisten gets votes from non-Western immigrants (their second preference after SD), but it is not an immigrant party. They have very few immigrant candidates and members. Plus Denmark still only has 10% foreign born (many of whom are from Scandinavia and Western Europe). Odense has a high ethnic minority population, but they are unlikely to have changed their voting pattern much. SD has a solid grip on the immigrant vote despite their "tough talk".

The main thing is that the Danish industry is in Jutland (and to a lesser degree Funen), and it is here that people feel the consequences of outsourcing. Traditionally the far left was weak in Jutland outside of Århus and Ålborg (anti-Communism and distrust of academic/theoretical approcach to politics and anything dominated by Copenhageners) but in the municipal elections in 2013 they had a breakthrough in "the province" picking up working class voters and disillusioned left wing SDs (anti-austerity voters). Their membership has also grown rapidly in these parts.
Odense is the third largest city, Esbjerg the fifth and Randers the sixth. The rest is smaller towns and the rural areas around them (not exurbs, we have zoning laws, so not an exurb country). A lot of the industry is in smalltowns. Local craftsmen setting up a small factory, that grew bigger. Jutland is filled with those. Enhedslisten is bound to have picked up some SPP voters, but not nearly as many as expected. A lot of their new voters are coming from SD. Given that they grew from a low level the increases are often small numerically. But they do convey an interesting trend.

[politicus]

Denmark has 530 000 adult immigrants and descendants (11.9% of voters), but only 180 000 of them have citizenship and the turnout is substantially lower than for ethnic Danes. So they are not a major factor in a Folketing election (more so in municipal elections where citizenship is not required). In addition Western immigrants actually vote slightly more centre-right than Danes + some non-Western immigrants also vote centre-right. So it all evens out and does not influence seat distribution much.